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Comic-Con International => CCI General Discussion => Topic started by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:08:45 PM

Title: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
Now that SDCC 2020 is in the rearview mirror, it's your time to sound off about the future.  What say you? (also be sure to vote in the poll above ^^^)

This is a really tough one for me, personally.  After already losing one con, a second consecutive would be devastating for a multitude of reasons.

As of right now, I feel we will not be at a place in 7-8 months where CCI will feel comfortable moving forward with even a scaled-back in-person version of a Comic-Con in 2021.  And for that reason I will vote no, as hard is that is to do.

I hope our society proves me right and makes the necessary lifestyle changes to eradicate this pandemic -- I'm just uncertain it will happen in time for CCI to make the call on 2021.  Fingers crossed!

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 27, 2020, 04:12:37 PM
SDCC 2021 or bust.

Edit: to clarify I'm for 2021

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on July 27, 2020, 04:26:58 PM
Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:27:58 PM
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Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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I have not heard of CCI’s plans for that, as of yet.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: rickythump on July 27, 2020, 04:51:37 PM
Looking at my previous post from March 13th about speculation for the upcoming 2020 con;

Quote
"I say that we'll have bigger problems at hand because if four months passes and we are still in a place where large event gatherings are banned - then we will be in the darkest timeline and attending SDCC will be a low priority for everyone due to living through an economic depression at that scale. I mean... things could always get worse. And without getting overly political, it seems like this administration is incredibly lacking (to say the least), and that its likely that things do get worse in the coming weeks before they will get better.

But its important to remember, that if we are projecting a timeline where SDCC is canceled - then what does the American life look like that that point? Millions of people in travel and service industry jobs will likely be out of work, the economy will have collapsed, and (at the risk of sounding like a doomer) we might be living in some state of anarchy."

 ??? I guess I should've knocked on wood.

I think this Winter is going to be rough; I think if we get some sort of rapid testing in order by the end of the year, we'll be okay for 2021, but it will still be a very different con.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on July 27, 2020, 05:23:11 PM
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Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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From https://www.comic-con.org/cci/badge-info (bold = mine)

Quote
RETURNING ATTENDEES

Due to the option of allowing Comic-Con 2020 badge holders to transfer their badges to Comic-Con 2021, there will be no Returning Registration for Comic-Con 2021. Depending on the number of refund requests received, there may be reduced inventory for sale in the fall of 2020.

FIRST-TIME ATTENDEES

To participate in any badge sale, you must have a valid and confirmed Comic-Con Member ID. Click here to sign up for one today! The Member ID system will close - without notice - in advance of any badge sale event. Everyone you wish to purchase badges for must have their own valid and confirmed Member ID account.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 27, 2020, 05:29:21 PM
As I've been saying since this started, the question is not whether we would have a comic-con in 2020 it's whether there will be one in 2021?  Right now, I don't think we will.  If we got our act together then maybe we could have.  We didn't.  The way we didn't was in a very bad way.  Roughly 30-40% of the population thinks covid is media hype.  They refuse to wear masks.  So even if we get a viable vaccine, by current polling, roughly half the population will refuse to take it.  That simply won't allow there to be large gatherings.

We had all the tools we needed to get the same effect as a vaccine all along.  We haven't used them effectively, why would it be any different with a vaccine?  As the saying goes, vaccines don't save lives vaccinations do.  A vaccine is not very useful if people aren't willing to be vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on July 27, 2020, 05:58:47 PM
I'm voting yes.

I think there will be a vaccine by then.

Those that take it don't have to worry about those that don't.  If you take it, you'll be protected.  If you don't, you're taking responsibility for your decisions.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: tk415650 on July 27, 2020, 06:43:38 PM
 I will vote 'No' based on what the trends are right at this moment and the fact that there is little to no help or leadership coming from Federal Government.

'IF' there is an administration change in January 2021 in this country and the government is willing and able to administer a national testing and contact tracing strategy AND there is universal healthcare available to everyone in this country then we could talk about the possibility of Comic-con 2021.  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on July 27, 2020, 07:31:47 PM
First of all, I don't think we'll see a badge sale at all for 2021.  I don't think they'll want to deal with refunds should that be necessary, and even if it isn't necessary they'll want fewer people trying to get into panels and on the floor.

That said, at this point I seriously doubt we'll see SDCC in 2021.  If we have a vaccine it will take a while to get it to everyone, and it sounds like people will need multiple doses.  I'm afraid concerts and conventions and packed sporting events won't happen for quite a while.  I really hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 27, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
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Those that take it don't have to worry about those that don't.  If you take it, you'll be protected.

If only that was the case.  Rarely do vaccines work that well.  There has never been a vaccine that's been 100% effective.  The closest is the measles vaccine at 97%.  Even with that, it takes about a 90% vaccination rate to prevent outbreaks.  90% of the population has to take a vaccine that 97% effective to control measles.

Unless there is a miracle, we will not get that with a covid vaccine.  Flu vaccines are about 40-60% effective and the bar that's been set by the government for the covid vaccine is 50% effective.  Hopefully it'll be higher than that and clock in at 70-80%.  At that level of effectiveness we would need a 95-100% vaccination rate to control covid.  Pretty much everyone would have to be vaccinated.  We will be lucky to get half the population to take it.

Vaccines aren't about the individual, they are about the population as a whole.  Since they aren't 100% effective, they are a tool towards herd immunity.  By limiting where the virus can go and thus the infection rate, the virus can be contained and ideally eliminated.  Many people that get a flu vaccine still get the flu.  That's because it's not 100% effective and only about half the population gets vaccinated thus the virus is prevalent.

Even taken at an individual level, at 70% effectiveness, how protected would you really be?  If there was a 30% chance that you would get run over walking across the street, how often would you walk across the street?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 27, 2020, 08:25:56 PM
As much as I want SDCC to come back in 2021, I don't think it will either. Large indoor events will be the very last thing to come back. Even places that seem to have coronavirus under control still don't have everything back yet. We can't shelter-in-place our way back to SDCC, it will take an effective vaccine, or treatments that greatly reduce the spread and/or severity of this, or until this thing burns through enough of the population until there's no one left to infect (which seems like a real possibility at the rate we're going...  ::) )

Here is what baseball stadiums look like in South Korea: https://time.com/5871901/south-korea-baseball-coronavirus/
Taiwan is doing a little better, with a recent 10,000 fan game. But 10,000 isn't going to work for SDCC: https://focustaiwan.tw/sports/202007110017

Also, CCI (and other organizations) already had to cancel nearly fully planned events without much notice, costing them a ton of time and money. I don't think that they'd want to risk that again, so I don't see a point in starting to plan for in-person 2021 until they're sure that we're in the clear. Which means that even if we get a vaccine in June 2021, we won't get a SDCC in July.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: YouThinkMeMad on July 28, 2020, 05:25:31 AM
I voted Yes because I just need to try and be positive about something when everything else is a dumpster fire.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Cut That Meat on July 28, 2020, 10:46:23 AM
Armed with what I know right now, I voted no. The rest of 2020 is already more or less a write-off here in terms of large gatherings already being cancelled/postponed, no fans at sporting events, concert tour delays, etc.

CCI cancelled on April 17 this year. Obviously there's still a whole lot that could change between now and April 17, 2021, but assuming this is around the latest possible day they could make a decision for next year - and my guess is they'd consider making the call much earlier the second time around - I unfortunately am hard-pressed to see it happening if I was making a wager today.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Godolphin on July 28, 2020, 11:21:16 AM
They just canceled CES 2021, I doubt any big conventions in 2021, but I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: YouThinkMeMad on July 28, 2020, 11:27:34 AM
I'm curious if they'd roll badges over again or just refund everyone. Can't keep rolling them forever  :-X
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 28, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
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They just canceled CES 2021

Yikes, the first truly big convention cancelation for 2021.

With a similar 5 1/5 month lead time, we would theoretically know SDCC 2021's fate by early February.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: rickythump on July 28, 2020, 12:25:03 PM
I think if 2021 is cancelled, it'll be a mass refund with no option of rollover and 2022 will be a completely new sale with a drastically reduced number of badges. I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route regardless of getting a green light to have the convention next year - I don't expect attendance to be what it was in previous years anytime into the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 28, 2020, 12:52:54 PM
I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books.  Especially since they don't know what form any future convention will take and thus they don't know how much it will cost.  Say it costs $100/per person per day to put on the convention in 2021 due to the added cost of new measures and lower attendance, how can they honor a badge they sold for $69?  There's too much that's unknown to commit to that.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 28, 2020, 01:25:44 PM
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I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books. 


But that liability might be exactly why they rolled it over... if the money was already spent on some level they simply didn't have the cash to process that many returns.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 28, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
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But that liability might be exactly why they rolled it over... if the money was already spent on some level they simply didn't have the cash to process that many returns.

I think they did.  According to reporting, the reason the official cancellation took so long was that they needed the time to get released from contracts without penalties.  From the convention center, from hotels, from whoever.

Also it's been reported that CCI saved up money just for this possibility.  So they would have the money to ride out an unforeseen cancellation.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 28, 2020, 03:04:59 PM
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I'm curious if they'd roll badges over again or just refund everyone. Can't keep rolling them forever  :-X

While I agree...for myself, I'd personally be okay with them rolling them over every year until it comes back.

ETA: Rolling things over until at least 2022 is feasible. Star Wars Celebration got pushed to 2022 and many people chose to roll over. The difference is they have no 2021, but it is showing that there are people who don't mind their paid bages being rolled over until 2022.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 28, 2020, 04:44:42 PM
Can Comic-Con require proof of vaccination as a requirement for attendance?  If so, and IF there is a viable vaccine by the end of the year, I vote yes.  But I think Wondercon in March is unlikely and losing three shows will really hurt CCI financially.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: NCDS on July 28, 2020, 06:52:10 PM
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They just canceled CES 2021, I doubt any big conventions in 2021, but I hope I am wrong.

Take back take it back

(https://media.sciencephoto.com/image/f0121453/800wm/F0121453-Girl_with_her_hands_over_her_ears.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on July 28, 2020, 07:03:53 PM
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I think they did.  According to reporting, the reason the official cancellation took so long was that they needed the time to get released from contracts without penalties.  From the convention center, from hotels, from whoever.

Also it's been reported that CCI saved up money just for this possibility.  So they would have the money to ride out an unforeseen cancellation.

i think i remember cci saying, the money they would have collected in 2020 would pay for 2022 con. It follows that they had ~ two years for an in-person con (since most everyone rolled over) AND an extra year of interest.
Likely that extra interest money has been spent on this years @HOME con
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 28, 2020, 07:21:25 PM
I’m skeptical too unfortunately. I tried to be hopeful but as others stated, it’s a dumpster fire here. I read health experts don’t expect a vaccine available and things going back to (somewhat) normal until the last quarter of 2021. But as stated millions won’t take the vaccine so I don’t even know.

It was good while it lasted anyway?

I don’t know if CCI can afford to miss another year either especially with the museum
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 28, 2020, 07:25:10 PM
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I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books.  Especially since they don't know what form any future convention will take and thus they don't know how much it will cost.  Say it costs $100/per person per day to put on the convention in 2021 due to the added cost of new measures and lower attendance, how can they honor a badge they sold for $69?  There's too much that's unknown to commit to that.

It was earlier on when things didn’t look as bad? Now all the huge cases are in the South and all over. Before it seemed as shutting down some areas would help contain it. Before all the protests and stuff...they were probably more hopeful there would be a next year.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on July 29, 2020, 04:41:24 PM
Deep (depressed) breath...

This is a tough one.  It's pretty clear in the United States that our current Federal Government is worthless, has no national plan, and is leaving it up to states (and politics) to decide how to handle things.  This will go on until at least January, and I honestly don't see USA getting out of "Wave 1" anytime before then.  It's so frustrating to know that beating this back, even w/out a vaccine, is incredibly doable: just see New Zealand completely beat it down to 0 new cases thanks to aggressive shutdowns & government financial assistance to weather the storm.  _IF_ US elects a new POTUS and _IF_ that POTUS enacts a more aggressive policy Day 1 (or, to be blunt, any policy which would be better than the lack-of Federal national policy we currently have), then _maybe_ things could be OK by next July.

To be super blunt, America has proven to be a selfish, entitled, incredibly misguided nation of people (or, really, at least half of the political persuasion).  We have a political party (ruling the Senate & POTUS) that scoffs at science and experts, thinks wearing a mask in a pandemic is tyranny, and just doesn't seem to care about the rest of the people in the country.  Even with a strong Federal plan enacted in January, I'm worried the opposition party would still rebel hard. 
BUT, it's my sincere hope that with a POTUS that isn't a raving lunatic, one that speaks with empathy and understanding and compassion, can speak to the majority of the country and help change the culture enough.  I'm not voting at this time, partly because I'm in a dark place mood-wise, partly because I honestly have no idea at this time.  Regardless of what I say above, I am optimistic for 2021 (I feel like I have to be...)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 29, 2020, 04:43:32 PM
This thread is becoming way too political.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:00:20 PM
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This thread is becoming way too political.

I created the post at the risk of it potentially becoming that, but admittedly, the issues affecting the status of SDCC 2021 are somewhat political, whether we like it or not.

That said, this is certainly not the place to hold a Biden vs. Trump vs. whomever else debate :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 29, 2020, 05:02:26 PM
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I created the post at the risk of it potentially becoming that, but admittedly, the issues affecting the status of SDCC 2021 are somewhat political, whether we like it or not.

That said, this is certainly not the place to hold a Biden vs. Trump vs. whomever else debate :)
I agree. But I think: "To be super blunt, America has proven to be a selfish, entitled, incredibly misguided nation of people (or, really, at least half of the political persuasion)."  is taking it too far. Those are just personal attacks.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 29, 2020, 05:03:49 PM
I mean the country politicized everything about the pandemic, so any discussion about the how the pandemic will impact future events will necessarily involve politics.  :-(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 05:09:22 PM
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_IF_ US elects a new POTUS and _IF_ that POTUS enacts a more aggressive policy Day 1 (or, to be blunt, any policy which would be better than the lack-of Federal national policy we currently have), then _maybe_ things could be OK by next July.

It's too late.  The current administration has politicized the pandemic.  It didn't need to be that way.  It shouldn't be that way.  It is that way.  For 30-40% of the population refusing to wear masks and thinking of covid as just the sniffles is now part of their identity.  That's not going to change.  A different POTUS telling them to wear masks will just make them dig their heels in more.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on July 29, 2020, 05:15:13 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/bleak-new-forecast-for-conventions-prompts-mission-bay-hotels-to-lobby-san-diego-for-financial-relief/ar-BB17lnpw (bold = mine)

Quote
Lingering COVID-19 restrictions are damaging San Diego’s tourism industry, prompting a group of Mission Bay hotels and other businesses to lobby city officials Wednesday for rent deferrals and other relief. The relief requests come on the heels of a new study showing San Diego’s normally robust convention business won’t fully revive until spring or summer 2021 -- at the earliest.

The study, conducted by consulting firm Tourism Economics, dashes previous hopes that conventions would return to San Diego this fall or early next year.


"Major markets are coming to grips with the prospects that virus-related restrictions will prevent many medium and large group meetings through the fourth quarter of 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021," said Colleen Anderson, executive director of the San Diego Tourism Marketing District.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:20:55 PM
@AzT thanks for sharing.

I do wonder if holding a potential SDCC 2021 in the fall or winter is an option that CCI is considering.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 05:25:54 PM
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@AzT (https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=2163) thanks for sharing.

I do wonder if holding a potential SDCC 2021 in the fall or winter is an option that CCI is considering.

Considering that covid is expected to seasonally spike like other respiratory illnesses, if covid is the concern, it would be worse to hold it in the fall or winter.  If covid is too widespread in the summer to hold SDCC, it's not going to be better to hold it in the winter.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:28:16 PM
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Considering that covid is expected to seasonally spike like other respiratory illnesses, if covid is the concern, it would be worse to hold it in the fall or winter.  If covid is too widespread in the summer to hold SDCC, it's not going to be better to hold it in the winter.

On the contrary, it’s been reported that Covid-19 is not seasonal:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069111
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 06:15:55 PM
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On the contrary, it’s been reported that Covid-19 is not seasonal:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069111

Respiratory illnesses are seasonal.  Just not for the reason people think they are.  That warning from the WHO was to dispel that incorrect belief.  People think that respiratory illnesses wane in the summer because the weather is warmer and thus the virus doesn't survive as long. That "when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away".  That is not the case.  That has never been the case.  As we discussed earlier in another thread, the virus doesn't do worse if the temperature outside is closer to the temperature of the host that it thrives in.

The reason that respiratory illnesses are seasonal is not the effect of the weather on the virus, it's the effect of the weather on people.  People tend to stay indoors more when it's colder.  Respiratory illnesses are much more infectious indoors as oppose to outdoors.  People's noses tend to run when the temperature is cooler.  Thus people tend to touch their virus smeared hands on their noses more in the winter then in the summer.  It's people's behavior in the winter that makes respiratory illnesses seasonal.

That WHO warning you posted says that.  It says that the the virus itself is not effected by the weather.

"The COVID-19 virus is likely not impacted by the changing seasons "

It says it's people's behavior that effects transmission rates.

“What is affecting the transmission is mass gatherings, it’s people coming together, and people not social distancing, not taking the precautions to ensure they are not in close contact.”

Close contact happens more in the winter.  In temperate zones where there aren't really seasons, there is no difference in occurrence between summer and winter.  Since the weather and thus people's behavior is always the same.

Here are a couple of articles that talks about seasonality of respiratory illnesses.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/sick-in-rainy-weather-reasons
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-we-get-the-flu-mos/

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 29, 2020, 06:37:59 PM
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This thread is becoming way too political.

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Science shouldn’t be political. IF Con is held in person next year, it’ll probably look very different.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on July 31, 2020, 11:36:05 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if SDCC21 is more like 60% - 70% the size it normally is.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 31, 2020, 11:39:01 AM
Except they probably had a ticket rollover rate of over 90%.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on July 31, 2020, 11:44:22 AM
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Except they probably had a ticket rollover rate of over 90%.
I'd love to know what that number really is.  While all of us here are so involved in SDCC that the large majority probably rolled them over, I'd love to see numbers from CCI that shows those details.

Oh, wait, CCI doesn't show those numbers :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 31, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised if SDCC21 is more like 60% - 70% the size it normally is.

Which highlights one of the issues I brought up about rolling it over.  Whether it's 100% or 60%, many of SDCCs costs are fixed.  So it costs them about the same to put it on.  At 60% the attendance they planned for when they priced the badges, the money they brought in probably wouldn't cover the costs of putting it on.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 31, 2020, 06:46:13 PM
I don’t think they can do a 60% SDCC if the goal is to keep distance between attendees. That’s not going to solve anything. More likely, we just plain aren’t getting it back until we find a way to get big crowds back.

That said, if they were allowed to go ahead next year BUT demand dropped so much by next year that they only get 60% attendance (unlikely, since as of last year demand for tickets exceeded capacity by at least 10x based on estimates...but hypothetical) I would expect them to probably go ahead with it because I think they’d lose less money than if they canceled it altogether again.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 08, 2020, 12:33:40 PM
Let's see how the Sturgis experiment goes.  If that works out, maybe there can be a comic-con 2021.  A different kind of comic-con but still a comic-con.  Instead of holding it indoors at the convention center, hold it outdoors at Petco.  Transmission outdoors is lower than it is indoors.  There have been other convention like events at Petco.  What they do is segment the seating into separate panel rooms.  The field itself can be an exhibit hall or a Hall H substitute.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on August 08, 2020, 08:20:23 PM
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Let's see how the Sturgis experiment goes.  If that works out, maybe there can be a comic-con 2021.  A different kind of comic-con but still a comic-con.  Instead of holding it indoors at the convention center, hold it outdoors at Petco.  Transmission outdoors is lower than it is indoors.  There have been other convention like events at Petco.  What they do is segment the seating into separate panel rooms.  The field itself can be an exhibit hall or a Hall H substitute.
This $#!7 scares me...I attended the Sturgis rally and stayed and the Chip and I can tell you firsthand that there's no sort of "social distancing space" whatsoever. Yes it's a huge campground and yes there's all sorts of various things that keep people in different areas, but it is literally wall-to-wall packed w/people and bikes.  The concerts are standing room only, the bars are pack, and then there's all sorts of partying and stuff all done throughout the campgrounds.  I was saddened to see that they were expecting north of 250K people there.

2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Mario Wario on August 08, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
I recommend not worrying about summer 2021 until Jan. 1st, 2021. It’s too early to guess right now, which is why I’m not voting. Let's see what happens with the vaccine race among other things that will help fight the virus. Let’s just keep hoping for the best and think positively along the way. Also, less political talk = less negative energy floating around. And I am not shocked that CES ‘21 is not happing. I’m just not.

Now, if in-person Comic-Con ‘21 is a thing thanks to science winning the battle, I don’t expect the con to be held outside (because it gets hot in SD in July, the cost in renting a baseball stadium is not cheap; rain is possible, too), masks will be required to enter the con, and some crowd control will be required at the event.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 08, 2020, 11:43:55 PM
Even if everything goes well, I don't see a vaccine being a factor by comic-con 2021.  Even if the leading candidates get approved, there won't be enough supply by then for most people.  There will be a priority list, healthcare workers and the elderly for example, before it trickles down to everyone else.  It also won't win the battle.  Covid is here to stay.  It's too widespread to put back in the bottle.  Now, it's about figuring out how to live with it.  There's only been one widespread disease that's ever been eradicated.  That took 200 years of vaccinations.  Unlike today, that's was during a time when most people were willing to get vaccinated.

There have been plenty of events at the stadium.  As I said, that's where the mini cons were held.  It's not that hot.  I doubt it would costs more to rent it than it does to rent the convention center.  I don't think it's that expensive.  That's why so many offsites are held there.  Microsoft booked the whole thing for a Rocket League tournament.  They did their best to fill the stadium up.  Considering that San Diego is the majority owner of Petco, I'm pretty sure they would be motivated to work a deal.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: FlamedLiquid on August 19, 2020, 12:20:17 AM
As of right now Im leaning more towards No.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 22, 2020, 01:14:19 AM
Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: puppy on August 23, 2020, 05:30:08 PM
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Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.

That would be great, if only people would wear masks and isolate over here.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on August 25, 2020, 09:03:29 AM
Well, this is certainly to a good sign: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/25/business/biogen-conference-likely-led-20000-covid-19-cases-boston-area-researchers-say/

Quote
Biogen conference likely led to 20,000 COVID-19 cases in Boston area, researchers say
- The Boston Globe

And more importantly, it's a _terrible_ look for Boston & the org that hosted the conference.

Now, that conference took place in February, before US starting taking COVID-19 pandemic even kind of seriously (I don't think our country is taking this anywhere near serious enough for the most part), so they can't necessarily be blamed at this point.  Sturgis is already showing blow-ups nationwide of infections from its attendees: 15 days after the event South Dakota (host state) hit record numbers of daily cases (250+) with neighboring states (like Nebraska) hitting upticks as well.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/21/us/sturgis-motorcyle-rally-sd-covid-nebraska-trnd/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1vo6oT_9oRpYq_sb3WG21_llpBo8_tH5gwgI-put9ItUAlF9nfxz4WNLU

And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/hong-kong-man-was-reinfected-coronavirus-researchers-say-n1237840?fbclid=IwAR0EBazu_sC9Of_GZuJle_bP35QpBDrL3IqkPNk6KRsEyMSwwlg2NHQtvS8

Now, 11 months is still a lot of time.  But the science of viral disease that is both known and unknown at this time, probably doesn't bode great for 2021 in-person conventions.  I'd love for my pessimism to be misguided, but all the science says being indoors for long periods of time around large crowds is the absolute worst thing that one could do  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 25, 2020, 09:50:05 AM
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Well, this is certainly to a good sign.

After quickly reading your first sentence, I felt a little sense of joy...until realizing shortly thereafter it was tongue-in-cheek.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 25, 2020, 02:44:23 PM
Speaking of large events, the Sturgis numbers are just starting to roll in.

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And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).

There have been a lot of reports of people getting reinfected.  Many have not been reported in the media.  Many reports are dismissed as either bad testing or that the person never fully recovered.  Some people have significant symptoms for months.  It's like we are selectively choosing to ignore that since we have pinned all our hopes on a vaccine.  But study after study has shown that neutralizing antibodies decline rapidly after recovery.  Depending on the study, it only lasts a few weeks to a few months.  Also, the hope was that if you had little or no symptoms the first time, that it would be the same the second time.  But I've heard one doctor describe one of his patients that got reinfected a few months later.  The first time he was asymptomatic.  The second time he had to be hospitalized.

Until shown otherwise, I would expect covid to act like other coronaviruses.  The one most people are familiar with is the common cold.  People normally get that 2-3 times a year.  Which fits in with immunity only lasting about 3 months.  A recent bout with the cold might give you some partial immunity to covid.  The t cells from fighting a cold are effective against it's coronavirus cousin.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on August 25, 2020, 02:50:24 PM
What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 25, 2020, 02:55:40 PM
Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 25, 2020, 03:00:49 PM
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What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.

Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

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Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on August 26, 2020, 10:40:23 PM
From https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/homelessness/story/2020-08-26/convention-center-shelter-to-close-by-years-end-state-oks-funds-hotel-purchase

Quote
The venue already had been dark for weeks before the shelter opening, with the pandemic causing the cancellation of large annual events such as Comic-Con International, costing the city millions of dollars in tax revenue and dealing an economic blow to area businesses.

Conventions still aren’t scheduled at the venue, but Faulconer said they are expected to resume in 2021, and closing the shelter this year will clear the way ahead of time for their return.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 27, 2020, 01:20:01 AM
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Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871
Thank you.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 29, 2020, 06:53:50 AM
New article in the UT today speaking about the impact convention center event cancelations have had on downtown San Diego businesses.

Thoughts are also shared on the prospects of events in 2021.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/tourism/story/2020-08-29/cancelled-conventions-san-diego
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on August 30, 2020, 02:05:13 PM
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After quickly reading your first sentence, I felt a little sense of joy...until realizing shortly thereafter it was tongue-in-cheek.
yeah, it was actually a typo: meant to type "_not_ a good sign."  I wouldn't make light of a pandemic, and certainly not as it relates to Comic-Con  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 30, 2020, 03:14:00 PM
Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 30, 2020, 04:52:28 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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*raises hand*

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200830/fa5df9882d203003385a12d0a60b70fb.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 01, 2020, 08:39:58 AM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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Absolutely!  I'm a HS music teacher; this is my 20th year in the same district, 16th year at my current school.  And I feel like tomorrow (when school starts...virtually for at least the first 12 weeks) is the first time I've ever taught before!  Even though marching band and fall sports have been canceled in CA (meaning, I've had zero summer rehearsals this year), I feel like I've been twice as busy as normal prepping to open school, I'm scrambling to learn new tech that our district provided training for extremely late (last week), and I have nerves like I haven't had in I-don't-know-how-long!  I left this am to go into my office and pick something up to work from home and I had to walk from my condo to my car and back at least three times because I kept forgetting (vital) stuff: my espresso (I have a 6-shot latte every am) first, then my hearing aids, then my glasses!  I felt like one of my HS students who doesn't have it together yet!!

I feel like this has already been the longest trimester I've ever taught through, and I haven't even started yet  ???
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on September 01, 2020, 11:43:18 AM
Pressure?  No, I don't feel and pressure.  Why do you ask?  ::Starts gnawing on my own arm::
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 01, 2020, 10:11:52 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?

I'm tired and anxious.  I don't know if I can keep this up for another couple of years.

The current public health agency drama isn't helping.  If people aren't aware, today the NIH went on record that they oppose the FDA EUA for convalescent plasma.  The NIH says there is not enough evidence to support it's use.  This is to say the least unusual.  This shouldn't happen ever.  The NIH should be on board before the FDA moved.  The problem is that the FDA is too politicized in this administration.  That's a big problem.  They make decisions based on what the President wants and not what the science supports.  Convalescent plasma is not the first time.  This incident in particular has been a nightmare.  The FDA commissioner gave a BS explanation to justify why he approved the EUA for convalescent plasma.  They said that Fauci approved it during the task force meeting.  Fauci represents the NIH on the task force.  Fauci was unconscious in an operating room during that meeting.  Now the NIH goes on the record saying that convalescent plasma should not be considered a standard of care until it's proven effective.

I don't have much faith in the current FDA.  So much so that if they approve a vaccine I will find it hard to trust them.  Especially if they do it before the phase 3 clinical trials complete.  I will look toward public health agencies in Europe and Asia to decide when and which vaccine to take.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on September 02, 2020, 06:55:16 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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I've been trying to get outside a lot during my day as I've been WFH since Feb. I don't have a proper home office but have been able to spin up a makeshift office desk area in my basement. Given that it's below ground w/no windows really makes you feel isolated, unlike an office w/windows.  So, the result is forcing myself to get up and out.  My dog now gets walked at least 6 (!!) times a day.  He loves it, and I do it to make sure there's a sun outside :D
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 02, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
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I've been trying to get outside a lot during my day as I've been WFH since Feb. I don't have a proper home office but have been able to spin up a makeshift office desk area in my basement. Given that it's below ground w/no windows really makes you feel isolated, unlike an office w/windows.  So, the result is forcing myself to get up and out.  My dog now gets walked at least 6 (!!) times a day.  He loves it, and I do it to make sure there's a sun outside :D

I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 02, 2020, 10:49:30 PM
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I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!

Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 03, 2020, 08:19:28 AM
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Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.

You're not making me excited for my trip to SD next week, lol!  (We're staying at a VRBO near my dad, and will spend our time on the rooftop deck and in the yard.  We're waiting until after the Labor Day craziness.) 
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 03, 2020, 03:14:07 PM
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I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!
my parents recently moved to Goodyear (in April) from the mid-west, and I've been following the temps and WOW!  I saw it's supposed to get to 120 this weekend!  I live in San Diego, and we're getting in the the 100's this weekend, but whenever I want to complain or something I slide my iPhone weather app screen over to "Goodyear" and remind myself it could always be significantly worse.  Part of me is glad this summer is hottest ever, since it kinda makes me feel like "well, maybe it won't be this awful every summer for my parents," but part of me is a little worried this will be the new norm temp-wise...
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 03, 2020, 03:18:10 PM
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Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.
Yeah, but I feel like 1) this is the worst time of year for hot/humid weather (I say this as a HS band teacher, who spends a _lot_ of time outside from June-November annually) and 2) this summer has been relatively mild for the most part.  It sucks that the pandemic has screwed up our electric bills, because I feel like we've hardly used the AC this summer.  It's been not-great the last couple of weeks, with the exception of this week (I walk every night around 9:30/10 and the last few nights have legit been _chilly_ w/temps in the low 60's).  It is getting awful w/today likely being the last day of no-AC for the foreseeable future.  I see 107 as a high on Sat & Sun (w/low 70's as lows, at least, so hopefully it cools off a bit in the evenings) with lots of mid-90's highs between tomorrow and next Friday
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 04, 2020, 11:05:19 PM
What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday it was relatively cool.  Today it's back to the AC being on until 10pm and flex alerts.  A couple of weeks ago, it hit 105 in the shade of the patio.  I think we might hit that again in the next few days.

From a practical point of view, it's the humidity that's the problem.  I have camera equipment but I never had to worry about fungus until a couple of years ago.  Now I have a dry box.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 05, 2020, 10:09:37 AM
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my parents recently moved to Goodyear (in April) from the mid-west, and I've been following the temps and WOW!  I saw it's supposed to get to 120 this weekend!  I live in San Diego, and we're getting in the the 100's this weekend, but whenever I want to complain or something I slide my iPhone weather app screen over to "Goodyear" and remind myself it could always be significantly worse.  Part of me is glad this summer is hottest ever, since it kinda makes me feel like "well, maybe it won't be this awful every summer for my parents," but part of me is a little worried this will be the new norm temp-wise...

We moved to Phoenix from Ohio (at the beginning of June, many years ago) and the first summer was quite an experience!  I couldn't understand how anyone could put on jeans in the summer, and then the summer went all the way into October.  But it's true, your blood thins or whatever and it becomes easier each year.  I'm sorry your parents got 2020 for their first summer here, though hopefully all future summers will seem easy by comparison.  I'm not going to comment on it being the new normal, I can't go there.  Once we get past the middle of September it should feel cooler in the mornings and evenings, at least.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 05, 2020, 10:13:10 AM
2020 continuing to deliver nothing but goodness.  All-time record high temps in SD today/tomorrow.  Yep...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200905/aaca03d2160c4abb4238f71913f94511.gif)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 05, 2020, 12:25:41 PM
Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 09, 2020, 12:42:27 AM
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2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.

The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 09, 2020, 09:10:39 AM
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.

The super annoying part is that the Sturgis community made money but then their home area bears the brunt of the virus treatment costs.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 10, 2020, 09:45:47 AM
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.
yeah, if Sturgis was the litmus test for large gatherings, it went very poorly for large event planners.  Of course, the Sturgis crowd didn't seem the type to wear masks, social distance, etc. so maybe it's not the best example, but Sturgis definitely makes prospects of returning to conventions anytime soon likely not-viable.  I can't fathom _any_ organization wants to be in national (international?) news for being a super-spreading event (let alone responsible for many people getting sick and/or dying).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 10, 2020, 09:53:41 AM
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Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 10, 2020, 10:18:04 AM
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on September 10, 2020, 02:03:45 PM
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've been saying this for years, but no one understood.  San Diego is cooler than other places, but a lot of homes and businesses don't have AC.  Also, some businesses that do have AC, but don't use it due to high electricity costs.  I've lived in 3 other very hot cities and there was AC everywhere.

Totally agree that the weather has changed since the late 90s.  It used to be about 3 hot weeks per year and now it is around 4 months.

Nice to see that other people have seen the same thing.  :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 10, 2020, 11:50:06 PM
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In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've told people this when they talked about snow days.  We had hot days.  The HS I went to was the newest in the district at the time so we had AC.  The other schools didn't.  So when it got too hot, the district would send everyone home.  We also had to go even though we had AC.  Which kind of sucked since we didn't have AC at home.  It wasn't that bad back then.  It was the dry heat.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RighteousRita on September 11, 2020, 06:59:25 AM
With state of California is right now. I don't see this happening. With the wildfires and cases going up and places not opening. And other factors, it really needs to be a vaccine in place that works before I see it happening for 2021.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 11, 2020, 11:45:13 AM
I'm not sure we'll see much difference with a vaccine.  The percentage of people that say they will definitely get one is down to 21%.  The anti-vaxers have been hard at work since day 1.  It's working for them.  The lost of trust in the FDA due to it's politicization by the current administration isn't helping.  62% of people surveyed are concerned that the FDA will approve a vaccine not based on science but on politics.  If a vaccine is 50% effective, the baseline for the FDA approval, and only a quarter of the population takes it I don't see it having much impact.  Especially since at least some people will feel invincible after vaccination and stop wearing masks and socially distancing.

As an example, the flu vaccine is taken by about 45% of the population.  That vaccine is time tested and thus doesn't have any of the concerns about being rushed.  It's also not political.  It's about 45-50% effective.  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year.  Covid is more contagious and more virulent.

Messaging by the public health agencies has been a disaster since this started.  It hasn't been any different for a vaccine.  I think most people think that once we get a vaccine, it will be all clear.  That's the messaging we are getting.  That's not going to happen.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: stl_ben on September 14, 2020, 07:02:01 AM
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  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year. 
Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:
Quote
However, the actual number of counted influenza deaths over that timespan ranged between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths each year.
The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

So there is really no comparison to some thing that kills 20,000 a year to something that kills 200,000 in 6 months.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on September 14, 2020, 07:12:15 AM
But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 14, 2020, 09:37:12 AM
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How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 14, 2020, 09:41:18 AM
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Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.

The parallels between our life journies are striking indeed, haha!

I too live in the RB/Carmel Mtn area...and I too am from Ohio!  Northern Ohio, right on Lake Erie (city of Huron).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 14, 2020, 12:55:52 PM
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Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

That's incorrect.  The only thing we know for sure is that the actual counted deaths are low.  Since not everyone is tested for the flu when they die.  Not everyone is in a hospital when they die.  So the confirmed counted deaths are the floor, not the totally of deaths.

There's a reason the CDC uses an estimate for the flu.  Since we really don't track it that well.  A tiny percentage of the population is tested.  Many people only get tested if they go to the ER.  If people don't test positive for the flu then they aren't counted.  I've had the flu a few times in my life.  I've not been tested once.

Also, just like with covid, the flu may cause someone to perish due to existing conditions.  Just like with covid then the flu may not be listed as the cause of death.  The flu has been around so long that if someone dies of an existing condition, often it's not even considered.  Especially if they die at home.  More people die at home than in a hospital.  Here's a discussion of this situation with covid.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

The flu has been around so long that the models that estimate it's impact are very good.  That model takes all these factors into consideration.  Here are the CDC estimates.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

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But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

They are.  That and a variety of other factors.  The reported deaths are the floor, not the true number of deaths.

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Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.

Unfortunately those mandates don't work very well.  Not anymore.  Masks are also mandated in many states.  According to the person who models the estimated deaths we hear about on the news all the time, the compliance rate for mask wearing is 45%.

Unless the government gets serious about enforcing those mandates, it doesn't mean much.  In my area the authorities made it clear they wouldn't be enforcing any pandemic rules.  I don't see that being any different with a vaccine.  Especially now when it's become so tribal.

Mandates can work.  In European countries with reluctant populations, handing out $3,000 citations took care of that problem quickly.  I just don't see the will to do that here in the US.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on September 14, 2020, 01:30:59 PM
That’s going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.  In Miami, the police issued citations to people for not wearing masks.  New York cited businesses that didn’t comply with pandemic requirements.  I know some businesses in my state were shut down for noncompliance.  I didn’t say every state would mandate vaccinations, just that I doubt mine will be the only one.
Plus our governor’s term is up next year and our governors can’t run for re-election, so he may not have much political capital to lose by enforcing a vaccine mandate.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 14, 2020, 06:58:16 PM
It does vary.  Unfortunately even in cities like Miami that are highlighted for their enforcement, it's meager in terms of number and fines.  As of about a month ago, Miami had issued 288 citations.  The citations were for $100 or less.  Even with such a low fine, they were ignored.  Only 4 fines had been paid.  Similarly in San Diego, through the end of may, only 400 citations had been issued not just in the city itself but all over San Diego county.

In comparison, at it's height, Italy issued over 16,000 citations in one day.  One area in Germany issued over 1,000 citations a day.  Even in Melbourne they issued over 100 citations in day.  The fines are also much higher than $100.  In Italy up to $3,000, in Germany up to $10,000 and in Melbourne averaging over $1,000.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on September 19, 2020, 01:50:43 PM
The city is asking Newsom to let them reopen the convention center. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-leaders-ask-gov-newsom-to-approve-convention-center-reopenings/2408896/
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on September 19, 2020, 09:06:09 PM
From https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/homelessness/story/2020-09-18/housing-commission-approves-hotel-purchase-for-homeless-housing

Quote
SAN DIEGO —  A plan to purchase two hotels to house up to 400 homeless people now living in a temporary shelter at the Convention Center was unanimously approved Friday by San Diego housing commissioners, who also approved funding for support services at the sites for the new tenants.

Because about 800 people at the Convention Center still will need shelter after the hotels open, commissioners also approved a plan to reinstate and add more beds to a homeless shelter at Golden Hall at the San Diego Concourse and to reopen, with a reduced number of beds, other shelters that were closed because of the pandemic.

The plan to purchase Marriott Residence Inns in Mission Valley and Kearny Mesa is expected to advance to the San Diego Housing Authority for final approval next month, and the housing will be available when the Convention Center shelter closes by the end of the year.

Quote
sdconventionctr U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams visited our Convention Center this week to tour Operation Shelter to Home with Mayor @kevinfaulconer.

Dr. Adams said: “My time in San Diego has been incredibly productive and given me unique insight to bring back to Washington. I especially appreciated the opportunity to learn about these local efforts to protect both the most vulnerable among us, the minority populations who have been more susceptible to the virus, and the cross-sector partnerships supporting the health of San Diego’s citizens.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/CFNZe0KjeEx/
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on December 01, 2020, 08:11:05 PM
From https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/homelessness/story/2020-12-01/convention-center-shelter-poised-to-close-hundreds-moving-out

Quote
Closing the shelter after eight months in operation does not mean the Convention Center will be returning to its intended use anytime soon, however. After speaking at a Tuesday press conference outside the venue, Convention Center President and CEO Rip Rippetoe said no events are booked during the first quarter of 2021, but others are scheduled, for now, in April and May.

“Everything from May on is a strong possibility,” he said, acknowledging some doubts about April.

While 18 events in early 2021 already have been cancelled, four are still on the books for March, with the first and largest the IPC Apex Expo for electronics manufacturers, which could draw 8,000 people March 9-11. Seven events still are scheduled for April, including a private event and seminar that could attract 14,000 people April 8-9. For now, Comic-Con International still is scheduled for July 22-25.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on December 02, 2020, 12:25:46 AM
The UK just approved the BioNTech(Pfizer) vaccine tonight. They will start jabbing people next week. We should follow in a couple of weeks. This changes the equation. Vaccines are here. They are much more effective than expected. So now the question is will there be enough in time. Everyone involved in comic-con will have to be vaccinated by the last week of June. The attendees, the employees at the convention center, the hotel staff, the bus drivers, all the workers in the gas lamp, the list goes on and on.

There are a lot of logistics that still need to be worked out. Not the least of which is a system to prove that someone has been vaccinated. Mask wearing will still be a factor. So it won't be a back to normal comic-con. But for the first time since this started, I think there actually might be a comic-con in 2021. The final key element that has to fall in place for the vaccines is whether they will prevent infection and not just serious illness. Having 10's of thousands of asymptomatic spreaders running around the city would not be good.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on December 02, 2020, 02:47:48 AM
I still thing there's a good shot at having sdcc
assuming
we can get a lot of people vaccinated. That's a big 'if' but I choose to believe it can be done and am not giving into the pessimism.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on December 02, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
Officials have been saying that the vaccine will be generally available in April.  I’m skeptical of any events in the first half of 2021 taking place (i.e. Wondercon) but SDCC is scheduled far enough out that I’m also hopeful that it will take place.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: DaveG on December 02, 2020, 03:59:01 AM
I'm feeling more comfortable that everyone who wants a vaccine will have availability to get one by June. So we'll have to keep an eye on how many people refuse to get vaccinated. Although, I would hate to think that those people would ruin things for the rest of us. You could imagine CCI requiring proof of a vaccine to attend, but that won't keep unvaccinated people from being in downtown San Diego. You could argue that refusing to get a vaccine only places yourself in danger, but that's not 100% true. The vaccines are showing 90-95% efficacy, which means there's still a 5%-10% chance you could get it from an asymptomatic carrier.

The other issue is around at what point states will announce that conventions can be held. It seems highly unlikely we'll see large conventions before June/July. But are states going to be comfortable saying in January that summer events are ok? I doubt it. It's more likely to be April or May before any such announcements are made (at the earliest). Can CCI go ahead and finalize plans under the assumption the convention will be held? Maybe. I'm just not sure of the logistics involved.

The other thing to watch would be when they approve having large stadium crowds. I'm sure Major League Baseball will be working with communities to fill their stadiums as soon as possible. If cities allow that, then it's also more likely to allow conventions.

The bottom line is that I think its possible, maybe very possible to have SDCC in July, but a lot of things have to go right over the next several months.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: FBS on December 02, 2020, 06:26:08 AM
With the vaccine rollout happening here in the UK next week, discussions have begun about getting fans back in sports stadiums. There is now press articles suggesting that full stadiums could happen by the end of the Spring. Once the older generation (over 60s) and the vulnerable have been vaccinated.
While many will say it is dangerous to put a time limit on it and also dangerous to have full stadiums etc, what is the point behind it is that many who frequent these places are of the ages where the virus mortality would not affect them.

All eyes on the UK for the next several weeks as to how we handle it and what happens after many have been vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on December 02, 2020, 09:12:22 AM
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With the vaccine rollout happening here in the UK next week, discussions have begun about getting fans back in sports stadiums. There is now press articles suggesting that full stadiums could happen by the end of the Spring. Once the older generation (over 60s) and the vulnerable have been vaccinated.
While many will say it is dangerous to put a time limit on it and also dangerous to have full stadiums etc, what is the point behind it is that many who frequent these places are of the ages where the virus mortality would not affect them.

All eyes on the UK for the next several weeks as to how we handle it and what happens after many have been vaccinated.
I posted here about optimism in the US as well: https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?topic=11454.msg300079#new

Dr. Fauci, the leading US expert, said this in a TV interview in the last 24 hours:
Quote
"We've got to make sure that people get vaccinated. So if 75-85 percent of the people in the country get vaccinated as the vaccine becomes available, and the general public, not speaking of the people of the highest priority who have underlying conditions - the young men and women," he explained.
"If they get vaccinated through April, May and June, and really do a full-court press to get everybody vaccinated, you can get back to normal or at least approaching close to normal, as you get into the late summer and early fall."
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on December 03, 2020, 10:23:49 AM
Interesting piece in The NY Times today: a guesstimate of where you'd be in line for the vaccine.
Spoiler: much deeper than any Comic-Con line I’ve ever waited in 😬

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on December 03, 2020, 07:42:38 PM
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Officials have been saying that the vaccine will be generally available in April.  I’m skeptical of any events in the first half of 2021 taking place (i.e. Wondercon) but SDCC is scheduled far enough out that I’m also hopeful that it will take place.

I’m hopeful we can safely have a con by the second half of next year if at least a good portion of the country gets vaccinated but people are coming from all over the world? If there’s a con, it will look a lot different I imagine. Maybe they’ll use the online portal more to avoid camping out and long lines?

I don’t think we will get a Wondercon in the spring. Too soon.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: darqamin on December 06, 2020, 10:46:10 PM
We are on a slower timeline here in Canada, most people may have to wait until summer or later to get the vaccine, unless things go faster than expected.

I don't think I would be able to fit in Comic Con regardless this year, but it is heartening to think that whatever happens this year, hopefully Comic Con may be back and close to normal in 2022.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on December 07, 2020, 08:42:33 AM
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I’m hopeful we can safely have a con by the second half of next year if at least a good portion of the country gets vaccinated but people are coming from all over the world? If there’s a con, it will look a lot different I imagine. Maybe they’ll use the online portal more to avoid camping out and long lines?

I don’t think we will get a Wondercon in the spring. Too soon.
Yeah the logistics of lining up, socially distant panels, etc. would be quite the challenge.  There are ways to handle that, of course, but if there's a 2021 SDCCI it will be radically different for us as far as crowds, lines, etc.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on December 07, 2020, 01:54:29 PM
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We are on a slower timeline here in Canada, most people may have to wait until summer or later to get the vaccine, unless things go faster than expected.

I don't think I would be able to fit in Comic Con regardless this year, but it is heartening to think that whatever happens this year, hopefully Comic Con may be back and close to normal in 2022.

I don't think Canada is on a slower timeline.  It's just that the Canadian government is providing a more accurate estimate.  The timeline in the US has been optimistic.  This last weekend the person in charge of Operation Warp Speed said that we are running a couple of months behind at the moment.  If you look at the numbers, it supports that.  The original plan was for Pfizer to deliver 100 million doses by year's end.  RIght now it will be 6 million doses by the middle of the month.  I think they will be able to meet the shortfall in the final 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: darqamin on December 17, 2020, 11:31:12 PM
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I don't think Canada is on a slower timeline.  It's just that the Canadian government is providing a more accurate estimate.  The timeline in the US has been optimistic.  This last weekend the person in charge of Operation Warp Speed said that we are running a couple of months behind at the moment.  If you look at the numbers, it supports that.  The original plan was for Pfizer to deliver 100 million doses by year's end.  RIght now it will be 6 million doses by the middle of the month.  I think they will be able to meet the shortfall in the final 2 weeks.

Canadian estimate is probably closer to the truth but I am hoping it is is overly conservative and we end up receiving full population vaccination earlier.  With regard to Comic Con 2021, I won't be able to attend regardless but I want to be able to travel and see my family again.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on December 30, 2020, 01:32:21 PM
The rate of vaccinations in the US seems to have stabilized this week.  No big increase over last week.  At this rate, we are on track for comic-con 2030.  If Joe is successful in increasing the vaccination rate to his target, that would make it comic-con 2024.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 03, 2021, 10:32:56 AM
Unless the rate of vaccinations increase dramatically over the next month-to-six weeks, I'm changing my vote in the poll to a NO con this year.

That's mid feb- we'll either be stabilized or in really deep dodo. Sorry for the pessimism everyone, the trifecta of 'let downs'; over promising the speed of vaccinations, Holiday gatherings and the new strain are all combining to make me realize we'll be at this for another 6-9 months.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on January 03, 2021, 01:07:19 PM
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Unless the rate of vaccinations increase dramatically over the next month-to-six weeks, I'm changing my vote in the poll to a NO con this year.

That's mid feb- we'll either be stabilized or in really deep dodo. Sorry for the pessimism everyone, the trifecta of 'let downs'; over promising the speed of vaccinations, Holiday gatherings and the new strain are all combining to make me realize we'll be at this for another 6-9 months.

I agree.  Unless Miracle Max shows up--July is very doubtful.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: aodmisery on January 03, 2021, 04:02:39 PM
Personally I doubt it will happen. You also have to consider all the kids that go. And how the vaccine isn't for anyone under 17.  So you'll have a bunch of protected adults but it's a free for all on kids.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: daudino on January 03, 2021, 08:42:11 PM
I agree, it seems less and less likely, especially with California being in such horrible shape at the moment, which I imagine will lead the state to be super cautious about massive events with people in such close proximity to one another, especially indoors.

Maybe they would be ok with something like 25-50% capacity by summer, but nothing close to 100%.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 04, 2021, 02:20:57 AM
I don't expect any changes until the new administration has a chance to reset the effort.  Even then, I don't see how 2021 will happen.

The outgoing administration has been too aspiration the entire pandemic only to repeatedly disappoint.  The target for number of vaccinations by the end of last year went from 100 million to 50 million to 20 million to a reality of 3 million.  I lost whatever faith I had in them when they blamed it on Thanksgiving and Christmas.  Did they not know that those holidays tend to happen this time of year?  Today they suggested that we could double the number of vaccinated by giving those under 55 half a dose.  This just a day after we criticized the UK for pushing off the second dose to give more people their first dose.  Our government said we wouldn't do it since it wasn't how the clinical trials were conducted.  Then today they suggested the same thing as a solution to our vaccination problem.  Which in no way addresses the real problem.  There's vaccine sitting on shelves and not going into arms.  Adding more doses on the shelf won't help.  Giving someone half a dose takes the same amt of time as a full dose.  It won't speed up that process.

Even if we were going Israeli fast, 2021 wouldn't happen.  Germany, which has a very organized vaccination effort, is estimating they won't finish until sometime in 2022.  We need to be realistic and have proper expectations.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on January 04, 2021, 07:45:17 AM
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Today they suggested that we could double the number of vaccinated by giving those under 55 half a dose.  This just a day after we criticized the UK for pushing off the second dose to give more people their first dose.  Our government said we wouldn't do it since it wasn't how the clinical trials were conducted.  Then today they suggested the same thing as a solution to our vaccination problem.  Which in no way addresses the real problem.  There's vaccine sitting on shelves and not going into arms.  Adding more doses on the shelf won't help.  Giving someone half a dose takes the same amt of time as a full dose.  It won't speed up that process.

Right?!?  This kind of speculation isn't helpful.  They can't handle what they've already got!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 04, 2021, 09:35:24 AM
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Unless the rate of vaccinations increase dramatically over the next month-to-six weeks, I'm changing my vote in the poll to a NO con this year.

That's mid feb- we'll either be stabilized or in really deep dodo. Sorry for the pessimism everyone, the trifecta of 'let downs'; over promising the speed of vaccinations, Holiday gatherings and the new strain are all combining to make me realize we'll be at this for another 6-9 months.
I unfortunately have to agree.  The utter failures of not only the US Federal Government to mitigate the pandemic and distribute the vaccine, the failures of state governments to administer a vaccine (I've seen some states doing uber outdated internet sign-ups for vaccines that feel like they'd be wrong for a CCI event, let alone something as huge as a vaccine in a pandemic), and the clear selfish, dangerous failures of the general public to wear masks, social distant, etc. make it clear the US will not be out of this mess any time expeditiously.  We have state governors who seemingly would rather vaccine doses go to waste rather than give them out to people "out of order."  This pandemic has unfortunately shed a light on how many colossal 'holes' and failures we have in our nation's institutions, and a POTUS Administration change _might_ help put a bandaid on some of them (meaning, a more competent government will help) but not magically fix this situation quickly.

It's unfortunate, and it seems plausible that maybe CCI will be able to hold some sort of event in San Diego this summer, but it seems clear it will be in no way what we know of as San Diego Comic-Con.  AFAIK the Comic-Con Museum is still on track to be able to open this summer, and it seems possible CCI can do some sort of smallish live events in lieu of a SDCCI 2021, but that will not benefit the majority of badge holders.  I know at this point my wife (an educational Pro like me, with a 4-Dat + PN badge) will not attend anything this summer regardless of what CCI decides, and I suspect there are more than a few other like-minded folks w/badges.  At this point I think our best hope is that CCI programmers can think truly outside-the-box, and maybe deliver a legit innovative hybrid type of event that can somehow deliver the 'nerd bonding/gathering' atmosphere in a relatively safe environment mixed with streaming options for panels and out-of-town folks who maybe can't travel to San Diego.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 04, 2021, 11:39:22 AM
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...Today they suggested that we could double the number of vaccinated by giving those under 55 half a dose.  This just a day after we criticized the UK for pushing off the second dose to give more people their first dose.  ...
Fauchi was on NBC sunday morning. He was ***very*** clear, we would NOT be doing half dose unless the science supported it. He was adamant about following the science

eta, tbh, he seemed more upright/strong/straight then before. My guess is that his words were not going through a strong filter and he felt more confident due to the incoming administration.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 04, 2021, 12:42:51 PM
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Fauchi was on NBC sunday morning. He was ***very*** clear, we would NOT be doing half dose unless the science supported it. He was adamant about following the science

eta, tbh, he seemed more upright/strong/straight then before. My guess is that his words were not going through a strong filter and he felt more confident due to the incoming administration.

I hope so.  The FDA is meeting about it this week I believe.  But we seem to be applying a double standard.  We criticized the UK and said we would not be doing that since that's not how the clinical trials were conducted.  Even though they do have evidence that 1 dose confers about 70% immunity and the second dose takes that up to 95%.  On the other hand, the proponents of half doses here in the US cite that there is some evidence that a half dose works as well as a full dose for some people.  But that wasn't the way the trials were conducted.  So on one hand we say that it's not a good idea for them not to follow the clinical trials but then we say it's OK for us to deviate from them.

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This pandemic has unfortunately shed a light on how many colossal 'holes' and failures we have in our nation's institutions, and a POTUS Administration change _might_ help put a bandaid on some of them (meaning, a more competent government will help) but not magically fix this situation quickly.

Any fix will take years if not decades.  The problem is that we do not have a healthcare system.  We have a patchwork of healthcare.  With things the way they currently are, I don't even see what the states can do.  When it comes down to it, it's up to each individual hospital, pharmacy or doctor's office.  There will be vaccine that expires on the shelf.  I think some of the first batches expire this month.  Some hospitals are out of vaccine, other hospitals have plenty.  Under the current system, how does one hospital transfer the vaccine to another?  If it was one system, that system could manage issues like that.  But it's not.  So some hospitals are taking it upon themselves to vaccinate anyone rather than let the vaccine go bad.  Biz execs, personal trainers and family members.  There's enough turmoil already.  If this process gets the reputation of it being about who you know in order to get vaccinated, it would only reinforce existing doubts about our institutions.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 04, 2021, 05:55:48 PM
i really don't want to have to apply sdcc hall h/hotel room/badge tactics to getting my 80-90 year old parents the shot. That's just wrong  :'(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on January 04, 2021, 08:43:25 PM
I just saw that Florida is doing vaccine sign up through Eventbrite.  Seriously.  For elderly people.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 05, 2021, 01:06:58 AM
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I just saw that Florida is doing vaccine sign up through Eventbrite.  Seriously.  For elderly people.



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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 05, 2021, 11:28:37 AM
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i really don't want to have to apply sdcc hall h/hotel room/badge tactics to getting my 80-90 year old parents the shot. That's just wrong  :'(

Same.  I think it should be go to the front of the line for anyone over 100. ;)

This is why I'll hold back from getting the vaccine right away for my parents.  The way things are, they are super spreader events.  It would be tragic to catch covid at a vaccination site.  I'll wait for there to be an established reservation system.  I'll keep checking eventbrite.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: ALF on January 05, 2021, 04:18:30 PM
So does everyone think we will get an option for refund or a push to 2022?

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Mario Wario on January 06, 2021, 12:59:55 AM
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So does everyone think we will get an option for refund or a push to 2022?
In my opinion, yes to both.

Which leads me to my bummer prediction that SDCC 2021 will be all digital. Heck, I don’t see Disneyland opening up until late summer at best. Overall, I think many should follow the ReedPOP/Disney way, and do later this year (like December; ECCC ‘21), or 2022. Both D23 and SWCA are planned (hopefully) for next year.

Definitely don’t expect WonderCon this spring unless it’s late 2021. But that is very iffy at best. Same with other cons before the summer time. Heck, don’t be surprised if 2021 has no in-person cons...yeah, that situation again.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 06, 2021, 10:21:17 AM
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In my opinion, yes to both.

Which leads me to my bummer prediction that SDCC 2021 will be all digital. Heck, I don’t see Disneyland opening up until late summer at best. Overall, I think many should follow the ReedPOP/Disney way, and do later this year (like December; ECCC ‘21), or 2022. Both D23 and SWCA are planned (hopefully) for next year.

Definitely don’t expect WonderCon this spring unless it’s late 2021. But that is very iffy at best. Same with other cons before the summer time. Heck, don’t be surprised if 2021 has no in-person cons...yeah, that situation again.
I agree; I think the vaccine situation at this point is going poorly not just in the USA but in much of the reset of the world (not Israel though: WTF don't we all copy them?!).  I think, once again, CCI will need to wait until much later in 2021 to make an official call for insurance reasons when it becomes clear CA governor will not allow an event of that size to happen in mid-July.  You're right that it seems unlikely Disneyland will be open anytime soon, and if Disney doesn't have the political muscle to coerce CA Governor Gavin Newsome to let them open even at small capacity, CCI doesn't have much of a choice.  Up until the last few weeks I was legit hopeful that once a vaccine was approved and roll-out started that there'd be a shot at a 2021 in-person SDCCI of come sort.  I honestly thought it would be significantly scaled-back, and maybe somewhat of a hybrid model (similar to what many schools are experiencing, with some small percentage of students allowed on campus for in-person learning while others are learning virtually at home w/some sort of 'rotation' schedule so all students who want to be in person can be, albeit at minimum capacity).  But it's clear that like everything else related to the pandemic our Federal Government has epically failed us.  While a POTUS change _might_ help the situation, it seems implausible that this ship can be righted quick enough for a July 21st SDCCI start (since things would have to be in place in the spring for all involved to be able to properly plan).  I would think best case scenario is a _radically_ scaled-back in-person event that would maybe seem much closer to the first year or two of Comic-Con with minimal non-local participation; but that seems like (again, at best) a pipe dream and not viable for CCI.

Therefor, CCI would have to again offer a refund or roll-over to 2020 badge holders who did not get a refund already, with again many of those folks likely wanting to roll-over; I would expect this to happen at some point in April.  And I'm incredibly upset with this, but at least at this point if I mentally plan for the worst and anything else happens it will be an exciting 'win'
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 06, 2021, 11:32:42 AM
if folks don't know,
protesters have broken into the capitol hill. both sessions of congress have gone into lockdown
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 06, 2021, 11:53:42 AM
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if folks don't know,
protesters have broken into the capitol hill. both sessions of congress have gone into lockdown
The irony is that these are the same nut jobs afraid of a coup of the government! Putin is winning!


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 06, 2021, 12:23:04 PM
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if folks don't know,
protesters have broken into the capitol hill. both sessions of congress have gone into lockdown

They aren't protesters, they are traitors.

I never thought I would see this in the United States.  This is what happens in banana republics.  We are having our "The Emperor has no clothes." moment.
Title: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 06, 2021, 01:29:16 PM
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They aren't protesters, they are traitors.

I never thought I would see this in the United States.  This is what happens in banana republics.  We are having our "The Emperor has no clothes." moment.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: ALF on January 06, 2021, 02:06:26 PM
“Sticks his head in the sand like an ostrich”..... so you think Movie studios and toy company will be ditching SDCC after years of absences and move to virtual permanently?
Title: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 06, 2021, 02:39:01 PM
SDCC 2021!!!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 06, 2021, 02:44:54 PM
We have to be better than this. I still think that DragonCon will be the first major convention next year.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 06, 2021, 03:23:59 PM
thanks guys
perhaps i shouldn't have posted the initial alert, it was just so shocking.
When 9/11 happened, my ex- was on a forum working on a problem & didn't know till i came hm & told him. 3+ hr later.
but yes,

I jokening posted the following on facebook but
"Just train the Amazon crew to give the shot, everyone will be vaccinated by Saturday, tomorrow if you have Prime"
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: daudino on January 06, 2021, 06:34:55 PM
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So does everyone think we will get an option for refund or a push to 2022?
I think they really will have to. It feels like if they have to cancel it again, a refund for everyone becomes increasingly likely. Holding on to people's money for 1 year is one thing, but a second year seems harder to imagine.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 07, 2021, 10:40:48 AM
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“Sticks his head in the sand like an ostrich”..... so you think Movie studios and toy company will be ditching SDCC after years of absences and move to virtual permanently?
No; I think there is too much money at stake for them to ditch SDCC.  I've talked to toy reps who told me their companies rely on SDCC as a substantial marketing tool.
Studios have been involved with SDCCI since the 1970's; Star Wars made it's first marketing 'blitz' at Comic-Con BITD and first got buzz going thanks to Comic-Con.  I think it's been clear movie studios have been scaling back from SDCCI for almost a decade now, but TV and streaming studios/production companies have 'filled the void' as they've assessed the "payoff" for them is a bit more immediate and more tangible than studios hyping films months/a year in advance.  It seems more likely big-budgeted genre films will still have a presence at SDCCI, especially films released in late summer/early fall (see, for example, THE EXPENDABLES as one example of a Comic-Con panel that producers/the studio thought had a legit positive impact on box office).  I think studios have realized they have to have the "right" film + the right situation to make the cost & effort worth their while.

To be honest, I don't know the financial differences between WB, for example, holding their 'FanDome' virtual event vs having a Comic-Con panel; I suspect it was a little cheaper, but I also suspect it wasn't a TON cheaper.  And to be honest it's still impossible to know if it had any legit impact on anything.  One thing that was a benefit is they were able to control all spin, and had no other properties to compete for the spotlight/press.  But I think things _might_ be slightly more scaled back but definitely not studios ditching SDCCI.  I suspect even FanDome didn't get nearly the press and hype as, say, the WB panel that first brought out the Justice League cast.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on January 07, 2021, 04:55:41 PM
What do you think the chances are of SDCC rescheduling to later in the year? I'm guessing the convention center will have openings, and San Diego/hotels will be dying to recapture the revenue. For the record, the Hilton Gaslamp still lists its lowest price on July 21 as $778/night.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on January 07, 2021, 05:49:18 PM
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What do you think the chances are of SDCC rescheduling to later in the year? I'm guessing the convention center will have openings, and San Diego/hotels will be dying to recapture the revenue. For the record, the Hilton Gaslamp still lists its lowest price on July 21 as $778/night.

In my opinion, 0. I think we have a better chance at getting a rescheduled WonderCon. But for SDCC the stakes are just too high to keep on moving it around.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 07, 2021, 10:02:53 PM
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What do you think the chances are of SDCC rescheduling to later in the year? I'm guessing the convention center will have openings, and San Diego/hotels will be dying to recapture the revenue. For the record, the Hilton Gaslamp still lists its lowest price on July 21 as $778/night.

What would be the point of that?

The public health officials have set the wrong expectations for the general public.  They have been too aspirational.  Even their apsirations aren't as good as people think.  You know how Fauci has been saying all year that the vaccine would be generally available by next summer?  A lot of people interpreted that to mean everything would be good by summer.  That's not what he's been saying.  Even if that happens, he's said for months that things would not have a "semblance of normalcy" until late 2021 at the earliest and more likely 2022.  We are way behind schedule for that right now.  Regardless, a "semblance of normalcy" is not enough to hold large conventions like comic-con.

We need to have proper expectations.  I think we will be lucky to have a form of comic-con in 2022.  I wouldn't count on it.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 08, 2021, 06:51:51 AM
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So does everyone think we will get an option for refund or a push to 2022?

@ALF (https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=1925) That decision might be based in the finances of sdcc. Up until now it seems as tho, cci has been surviving due to the financial cushion the accumulated. I believe cci's revenue in one year was earmarked for the con 2 years in the future. In other words, they could afford to miss a year. If that financial assumption is accurate, CCI may need the badge money to actually put on the first con after the shutdown.   
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 08, 2021, 07:03:34 AM
Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 08, 2021, 07:36:13 AM
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Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?
#putting on the owner/admin hat

I believe the mission statement of this site would allow for a donation. We would have to insure the ability to pay our hosting etc. bills for the next bit of time however.
Quote
Friends of Comic Con is multi-platform organization dedicated to creating a friendly, open and innovative community where people can collaborate, learn, create, and expand in an effort to promote individual expression and enjoyment of comics, fandoms and pop culture
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on January 08, 2021, 07:46:36 AM
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What would be the point of that?

The public health officials have set the wrong expectations for the general public.  They have been too aspirational.  Even their apsirations aren't as good as people think.  You know how Fauci has been saying all year that the vaccine would be generally available by next summer?  A lot of people interpreted that to mean everything would be good by summer.  That's not what he's been saying.  Even if that happens, he's said for months that things would not have a "semblance of normalcy" until late 2021 at the earliest and more likely 2022.  We are way behind schedule for that right now.  Regardless, a "semblance of normalcy" is not enough to hold large conventions like comic-con.

We need to have proper expectations.  I think we will be lucky to have a form of comic-con in 2022.  I wouldn't count on it.

So, that would be a no then.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on January 08, 2021, 08:11:58 AM
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#putting on the owner/admin hat

I believe the mission statement of this site would allow for a donation. We would have to insure the ability to pay our hosting etc. bills for the next bit of time however.
Actually, I meant individuals of the forum. I would donate.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 08, 2021, 09:05:41 AM
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@ALF (https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=1925) That decision might be based in the finances of sdcc. Up until now it seems as tho, cci has been surviving due to the financial cushion the accumulated. I believe cci's revenue in one year was earmarked for the con 2 years in the future. In other words, they could afford to miss a year. If that financial assumption is accurate, CCI may need the badge money to actually put on the first con after the shutdown.   
I little digging reveals CCI was also the beneficiary of COVID relief funds as well, FWIW
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 08, 2021, 09:12:52 AM
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What do you think the chances are of SDCC rescheduling to later in the year? I'm guessing the convention center will have openings, and San Diego/hotels will be dying to recapture the revenue. For the record, the Hilton Gaslamp still lists its lowest price on July 21 as $778/night.
I suspect no, unless they were to do a late fall/early winter thing.  I suspect the logistics would be pretty insane, though I would imagine IF they were to reschedule it would likely be incredibly scaled-back and not what a lot of SDCCI attendees would think of as 'Comic-Con.'  I think if insurance $$ is a factor, as well as potentially more COVID relief money from the government (according to public records I think Comic-Con may have already received $1-2 million from the ppp), there wouldn't be a dire need to reschedule for financial reasons & it may be "easier" to just wait it out for 2022.
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Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?
I would; I've donated to CCI before and I think as a San Diego resident they're a worthy non-profit.  IDK what the status is of their museum currently (though I'm signed-up for the "update" coming Monday), but I'm sure they can always use funds in that regard; I anticipate that being a great 'outlet' for arts education resources, among other worthy benefits.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on January 08, 2021, 09:25:58 AM
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Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?


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Yes, I would donate.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: daudino on January 08, 2021, 11:15:48 AM
I wonder if they are allowed to put the $ from the 2020 ticket sales in a bank account and gain interest on it?

I'm sure some of it went to costs incurred, but I would thing there would be a pretty significant amount left that was just sitting there.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 08, 2021, 11:22:20 AM
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Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?

As far as I know, they don't need it.  They have significant funds in reserve.  They saved up to be able to absorb the cost of a failed con.  Which is even more reason for them not to put on a comic-con just to have a comic-con before the time is right.  That might put them into financial risk.

Putting on comic-con is a balancing act.  It costs a lot of money to put it on.  Thus they have to bring in a lot of money to pay for it.  Badge sales alone don't do that.  The exhibitors and sponsors are critical.  So unless there is substantive participation from all parties, putting on a comic-con doesn't make financial success.  That would endanger CCI.

It's never made sense to me to roll the 2020 badges.  It's impossible to know when, how and who will participant in a future comic-con.  Thus it's impossible to know how much it will cost.  Fixing the price per badge based on one set of circumstances to pay for a event that will be held under different unknown circumstances doesn't make financial sense.  They should have refunded.  They still should.

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I wonder if they are allowed to put the $ from the 2020 ticket sales in a bank account and gain interest on it?

I'm sure some of it went to costs incurred, but I would thing there would be a pretty significant amount left that was just sitting there.

Interest in a bank account?  What's that? ;)  Interest rates are so low as to be noise.  To get any decent rate of return would involve risk or loss of liquidity.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: daudino on January 08, 2021, 11:45:28 AM
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Interest in a bank account?  What's that? ;)  Interest rates are so low as to be noise.  To get any decent rate of return would involve risk or loss of liquidity.
Ha, fair enough. I guess something very stable that maybe they could gain at least a little bit of money from the ticket sales revenue during the last year. Given the cost of tickets multiplied by number of attendees, I would think it could be a lot even if the return is super super small.

And I agree they should have refunded everyone's money right from the start. You can debate if they should have guaranteed a possible spot for a person or not in the next con if they want, but even that has some issues unless the con returns to exactly the same size as before. I'm sure there was a ton of people that would have asked for a refund if they would not have lost their spot and could have really used the money during the pandemic, but they have been conditioned to know how hard it is to get a ticket, so they won't.

I don't think CC will run off with anybody's money and if they were to somehow need donations to survive, I would be inclined to help. I'm guessing they really felt that the 2021 Con was almost certain to happen, but now that appears more and more murky.

I feel that that SDCC 2022 is a certainty, and especially if the show doesn't happen this year, in my opinion it's time for a clean slate and refund everyone. This may even lead to retooling things that have nothing to do with the pandemic, just better/different way to run the Con going forward which may honestly mean reducing the number of attendees to make it more enjoyable for those that can attend.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 08, 2021, 12:14:23 PM
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It's never made sense to me to roll the 2020 badges.  It's impossible to know when, how and who will participant in a future comic-con.  Thus it's impossible to know how much it will cost.  Fixing the price per badge based on one set of circumstances to pay for a event that will be held under different unknown circumstances doesn't make financial sense.  They should have refunded.  They still should.
I agree, though I wonder if CCI locked-in prices (for 2021 at least) before putting everything in motion.
I kinda think it didn't make sense because even in April or May (can't remember when they officially canceled) it seemed like an SDCCI 2021 was an incredibly optimistic proposition anyway.  I get it 1) kept funds in the 'bank' and 2) kept the customers happy: both commendable outcomes.  I don't at all have any problems with what they did, but I always thought it was a kind of odd decision from a business standpoint, though it became the standard for most of the other significant conventions world-wide.

That being said, once I saw that CCI received ppp funds, I'm not too worried about their financial output.  I suspect between insurance & the ppp funds they're in OK shape.  Part of the CA Governor's budget proposal announced today includes more $$ for CA businesses (and non-profits) struggling during the pandemic, and I would think CCI can apply for some of those funds as well as whatever additional funds are made available at the Federal level.  I have zero insight into CCI's business or financial situations, and perhaps I'm being naive here, but I don't think we're at a point where we need to be worried about their financial future (otherwise I suspect the Museum would have hit a significant setback at some point, though I think the two ventures are technically separate)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on January 08, 2021, 09:41:02 PM
I am not surprised that they rolled over SDCC badges (while offering refunds to those who wanted) and my guess is they will do the same thing this year. As we all know SDCC registration is a whole different beast than other conventions. CCI and the attendees put a ton of time and labor into the registration process, and with more badges and a higher price, the processing fees that SDCC paid were much higher than WonderCon. Refunding them would cancel all of this effort out and probably make them eat most/all of the processing fees, and it will create a couple new problems (i.e. people being upset that they finally got a badge only to have it canceled, buying groups that will have to work out refunds.) Most of these were non-issues/much smaller issues with WonderCon so I was not surprised that those were automatically refunded.

At some point, if it becomes clear that SDCC will no longer be doable at the price paid (or at all), then at that point they can automatically refund everyone. But I don't see a benefit to doing so before that.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 09, 2021, 10:03:15 AM
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That being said, once I saw that CCI received ppp funds, I'm not too worried about their financial output.  I suspect between insurance & the ppp funds they're in OK shape.

I don't see how CCI could be in financial distress anytime soon.  They have the reserves to ride out a failed con.  2020 was not that financially.  By reports, they were released from cancellation penalties for the 2020 contracts and there was insurance.  So they still have those reserves.  CCI is a volunteer organization.  They don't have that many permanent full time paid employees.  So the fixed costs shouldn't be very high.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on January 12, 2021, 11:43:41 AM
One of the bigwigs with CCI had said they had the reserves if they missed a con.  They never envisioned missing two — which they did last year.  Wondercon definitely won’t happen in March, so that’s three.  Without the stimulus money, I think CCI would be in pretty bad shape.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SteveD on January 20, 2021, 06:59:15 AM
Maybe [hopefully] we will know something by the end of the month, https://www.ign.com/articles/when-will-comic-con-return (https://www.ign.com/articles/when-will-comic-con-return).

Quote
"I don't think anything is off the table," David Glanzer, Chief Communications and Strategy Officer for Comic-Con International, tells IGN. "But scenarios can change rapidly."

Quote
"We can, as an entity… plan one event and secure dates and all that," Glanzer notes, adding that he hopes to have an update on SDCC’s plans by the end of January. "But if there's a surge [in cases] or something happens, it can be shut down very quickly. There's just so many variables that I don't think any of us have ever had to deal with before, short of a natural disaster."
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: JKingoftheNerds on January 23, 2021, 03:06:12 PM
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Question: if CCI asked for donations to survive, would you donate?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Oh yeah, of CCI asked for donations to help SDCC survive, I wouldn't hesitate.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 29, 2021, 12:46:19 PM
Take a look at this.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/zealand-six60-outdoor-concert-draws-233521669.html

This is the what happens where people wear masks, respect lock downs and contact trace.  In short, take the pandemic seriously.  If we did that here, then we could have comic-con this year.  So far we haven't.  We still could.  There's time.  Is there the will?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 29, 2021, 01:22:36 PM
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Take a look at this.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/zealand-six60-outdoor-concert-draws-233521669.html

This is the what happens where people wear masks, respect lock downs and contact trace.  In short, take the pandemic seriously.  If we did that here, then we could have comic-con this year.  So far we haven't.  We still could.  There's time.  Is there the will?

It isn't that simple. i wish it was. A lot of folk simply can not respect the lockdown, they have to work
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: puppy on January 29, 2021, 01:42:25 PM
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It isn't that simple. i wish it was. A lot of folk simply can not respect the lockdown, they have to work

I'm sure people had to work in New Zealand, too. It's the people who disrespect the lockdown for no reason other than they want to prove they can who make it impossible to achieve control over the virus.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 29, 2021, 01:51:08 PM
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It isn't that simple. i wish it was. A lot of folk simply can not respect the lockdown, they have to work

They have the same considerations in New Zealand and everywhere else where covid has been defeated.  In all those countries they have essential workers that have to work to keep things going.  That can be done safely.  The responsibility is on the workers and everyone else.  The workers can keep themselves safe by following safety protocols like wearing masks.  Everyone else can keep them safe by staying at home and following the same protocols during their essential trips out.  I get angry when I see unmasked customers interacting with masked workers.  It's so disrespectful.

It is that simple.  The countries that have done it have proven that.  We have had the tools all along to defeat covid.  We just lack the will.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on January 30, 2021, 10:46:40 AM
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They have the same considerations in New Zealand and everywhere else where covid has been defeated.  In all those countries they have essential workers that have to work to keep things going.  That can be done safely.  The responsibility is on the workers and everyone else.  The workers can keep themselves safe by following safety protocols like wearing masks.  Everyone else can keep them safe by staying at home and following the same protocols during their essential trips out.  I get angry when I see unmasked customers interacting with masked workers.  It's so disrespectful.

It is that simple.  The countries that have done it have proven that.  We have had the tools all along to defeat covid.  We just lack the will.
Also other countries that successfully combatted COVID-19 had federal governments who worked to 1) protect citizens by passing rigorous laws 2) were mostly unified in their message of how citizens can keep safe (masks, lock-down/stay home when you can, etc) 3) paid citizens to stay home.
New Zealand, for example, paid their citizens about $600 _A WEEK_ while they had their rigorous shut-down.  US government paid its citizens $600 TOTAL between May-Feb. 
US government could have 100% afforded to pay citizens who couldn't work from home and couldn't afford to take off work.

It's become increasingly clear that the US Federal government has _epically_ failed us in their response to this pandemic: every single step of the way.  Even the vaccine distribution, the ONE thing we've known was a certainty and had PLENTY of time to plan for in order to have a well-organized robust plan to distribute ASAP to all, was a failure.  It's not JUST that the US is clearly full of incredibly selfish people who refuse to wear masks & socially distance themselves; it's not JUST that folks can't afford to take off work and stay home for months, or have the luxury of a job that they can work from home.  It's all of that AND an epic failure of US government.

It's sad that we've passed the one year anniversary of the first US COVID-19 patient and the only improvement is that we have vaccines that may or may not be effective against the viral mutations.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 30, 2021, 11:34:08 AM
exactly,
service industry folks have a choice, break quarantine or starve.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 30, 2021, 12:38:27 PM
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New Zealand, for example, paid their citizens about $600 _A WEEK_ while they had their rigorous shut-down.  US government paid its citizens $600 TOTAL between May-Feb. 

While I definitely agree with the overall sentiment about the pathetic government response in the US, our response in terms of payments was pretty much the same as New Zealand's.  NZ paid people that were required to quarantined but could not work from home.  The US paid people that were not able to work from home, unemployed, $600 per week in addition to traditional unemployment.  So the US scheme actually paid out more.  That's for people that outright lost their jobs.  The US also had the PPP program that paid companies to keep people employed even if they couldn't go to work.  Which is more similar to what NZ did.  They paid companies $585/week to keep people technically employed when they could not work due to stay at home.  Which is what PPP did.  It paid companies to keep employees on the workforce even when they could not work.  There were millions of people that couldn't go to work, airline workers for example, that still got paid by their employers using money provided by the government.  Also, unemployment was extended to people that would not traditionally get it.  The self employed for example.  Many of the rules that govern unemployment were waived.  Pretty much if you were effected by covid, you qualified for unemployment.  I do think that there should be hazard pay for essential workers.  They should get a $600/week hazard bonus for working during the pandemic.  If I have to pay more for my groceries because of that, I will.

So it was not a question of financial support, it was and is a question of people not abiding by the quarantine.  Many people were paid twice as much through expanded unemployment than they were on their jobs.  The problem was many people didn't use that money to stay home.   They treated it as a vacation and went to the beach, hung out at bars or took a road trip.  That's the problem.  In NZ the people took it seriously.  Most stayed home.  The ones that didn't were policed by the government.  The NZ government took enforcement of the lockdown seriously.  In the US, the government simply isn't interested in enforcing the lockdowns.  Here in the San Diego, law enforcement in some places have even said they have no intention of enforcing any covid restrictions.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on January 31, 2021, 06:10:31 AM
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While I definitely agree with the overall sentiment about the pathetic government response in the US, our response in terms of payments was pretty much the same as New Zealand's.  NZ paid people that were required to quarantined but could not work from home.  The US paid people that were not able to work from home, unemployed, $600 per week in addition to traditional unemployment.  So the US scheme actually paid out more.  That's for people that outright lost their jobs.  The US also had the PPP program that paid companies to keep people employed even if they couldn't go to work.  Which is more similar to what NZ did.  They paid companies $585/week to keep people technically employed when they could not work due to stay at home.  Which is what PPP did.  It paid companies to keep employees on the workforce even when they could not work.  There were millions of people that couldn't go to work, airline workers for example, that still got paid by their employers using money provided by the government.  Also, unemployment was extended to people that would not traditionally get it.  The self employed for example.  Many of the rules that govern unemployment were waived.  Pretty much if you were effected by covid, you qualified for unemployment.  I do think that there should be hazard pay for essential workers.  They should get a $600/week hazard bonus for working during the pandemic.  If I have to pay more for my groceries because of that, I will.

So it was not a question of financial support, it was and is a question of people not abiding by the quarantine.  Many people were paid twice as much through expanded unemployment than they were on their jobs.  The problem was many people didn't use that money to stay home.   They treated it as a vacation and went to the beach, hung out at bars or took a road trip.  That's the problem.  In NZ the people took it seriously.  Most stayed home.  The ones that didn't were policed by the government.  The NZ government took enforcement of the lockdown seriously.  In the US, the government simply isn't interested in enforcing the lockdowns.  Here in the San Diego, law enforcement in some places have even said they have no intention of enforcing any covid restrictions.

We're talking about two different groups of quarantine breakers. The essential workers and the partiers. We both agree about the partiers. We disagree about the essential workers.
Unfortunately, in a lot of service jobs, grocery & big box store workers. restaurants/fast food that stayed open, Contractors - etc, unemployment is not an option. A worker can **not** quit & get unemployment.

The friends i have in retail/restaurant are beyond upset by the customers who are disrespectful about masks/view shopping as a leisure activity. But they are stuck, either they work or they don't pay their bills. I've heard one person say, they feel like slaves. Hyperbole for sure, but the effect is the same.
The risk is doubled when that person lives in a multi generational household which is dependent on that income. Or they are 55+.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on January 31, 2021, 11:28:14 AM
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We're talking about two different groups of quarantine breakers. The essential workers and the partiers. We both agree about the partiers. We disagree about the essential workers.
Unfortunately, in a lot of service jobs, grocery & big box store workers. restaurants/fast food that stayed open, Contractors - etc, unemployment is not an option. A worker can **not** quit & get unemployment.

The friends i have in retail/restaurant are beyond upset by the customers who are disrespectful about masks/view shopping as a leisure activity. But they are stuck, either they work or they don't pay their bills. I've heard one person say, they feel like slaves. Hyperbole for sure, but the effect is the same.
The risk is doubled when that person lives in a multi generational household which is dependent on that income. Or they are 55+.

Every country has essential workers including those that have defeated covid.  That's why it's essential to protect them.  They need to be proactive in protecting themselves by wearing PPE.  The rest of society has to be proactive in protecting them by staying home and not spreading covid.  Yes, essential workers do have to work.  We need them.  But they can do that safely if the rest of us do our part and stay at home, not hang out at beach bars.

In countries that have defeated covid, that's exactly what people do.  As I've said many times, I haven't seen much of a lockdown here in San Diego.  The streets are still full of traffic.  It is lighter, but still pretty dense.  In countries that have defeated covid, during lockdown, there are no cars on the street.  It's a ghost town except for the occasional first responder or essential worker on a delivery run.  In some countries the population does this willingly.  You don't have to tell people in HK to mask up and stay at home.  The second there's a single case of covid anywhere in HK, everyone self quarantines spontaneously.  In other countries the government has to enforce it.  Some countries have fines up to 10's of thousands of dollars.  Others arrest people for not wearing masks in public.  Some do both.  Australia is one of those.  They have massive fines as well as arrests to enforce public health measures.  It's worked.  While not as successful as NZ or China, they have covid contained.  Well enough to do this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/world/australian-open-spectators-coronavirus.html

So I don't disagree that essential workers have to work.  We need them to.  But as other countries have shown, they can do so safely if the rest of us do our part.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: ALF on February 01, 2021, 08:14:44 AM
If I was a betting man which I am not since my luck is horrible, We won’t see a normal comic con until maybe 2 or 3 years from now.

Given just these two facts:
1.) multiple strands and mutation occurring. Like anything to do with odds, more people having it in the world eventually there will be a mutation that even the vaccine won’t work..
2.) it’s a pandemic on a global scale.

  :(

Who knows what’s going happen to Comic Con then?
Which each passing day, I wish I  went with the refund option for my 4 day pass for my wife and myself...
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on February 01, 2021, 09:22:38 AM
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If I was a betting man which I am not since my luck is horrible, We won’t see a normal comic con until maybe 2 or 3 years from now.

Given just these two facts:
1.) multiple strands and mutation occurring. Like anything to do with odds, more people having it in the world eventually there will be a mutation that even the vaccine won’t work..
2.) it’s a pandemic on a global scale.

  :(

Who knows what’s going happen to Comic Con then?
Which each passing day, I wish I  went with the refund option for my 4 day pass for my wife and myself...

the good thing over looked by most of the reporting on the variants, is the fact that all the vaccines seem to lessen the effects of whichever strain of the virus. IOW, if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital.
At this point covid be comes con-crud


from todays' NYtimes quoted because it's behind a paywall
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html
Quote
The news about the vaccines continues to be excellent — and the public discussion of it continues to be more negative than the facts warrant.

Here’s the key fact: All five vaccines with public results have eliminated Covid-19 deaths. They have also drastically reduced hospitalizations. “They’re all good trial results,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “It’s great news.”

Many people are instead focusing on relatively minor differences among the vaccine results and wrongly assuming that those differences mean that some vaccines won’t prevent serious illnesses. It’s still too early to be sure, because a few of the vaccine makers have released only a small amount of data. But the available data is very encouraging — including about the vaccines’ effect on the virus’s variants.

“The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” as Julia Marcus of Harvard Medical School recently wrote in The Atlantic.
Why is the public understanding more negative than it should be? Much of the confusion revolves around the meaning of the word “effective.”

What do we care about?
In the official language of research science, a vaccine is typically considered effective only if it prevents people from coming down with any degree of illness. With a disease that’s always or usually horrible, like ebola or rabies, that definition is also the most meaningful one.

But it’s not the most meaningful definition for most coronavirus infections.

Whether you realize it or not, you have almost certainly had a coronavirus. Coronaviruses have been circulating for decades if not centuries, and they’re often mild. The common cold can be a coronavirus. The world isn’t going to eliminate coronaviruses — or this particular one, known as SARS-CoV-2 — anytime soon.

Yet we don’t need to eliminate it for life to return to normal. We instead need to downgrade it from a deadly pandemic to a normal virus. Once that happens, adults can go back to work, and children back to school. Grandparents can nuzzle their grandchildren, and you can meet your friends at a restaurant.

As Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me this weekend: “I don’t actually care about infections. I care about hospitalizations and deaths and long-term complications.”



The data
By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot.

To put that in perspective, it helps to think about what Covid has done so far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.

Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them.

I assume you would agree that any vaccine that transforms Covid into something much milder than a typical flu deserves to be called effective. But that is not the scientific definition. When you read that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 66 percent effective or that the Novavax vaccine was 89 percent effective, those numbers are referring to the prevention of all illness. They count mild symptoms as a failure.

CORONAVIRUS BRIEFING: An informed guide to the global outbreak, with the latest developments and expert advice.
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“In terms of the severe outcomes, which is what we really care about, the news is fantastic,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said.

The variants
What about the highly contagious new virus variants that have emerged in Britain, Brazil and South Africa? The South African variant does appear to make the vaccines less effective at eliminating infections.

Fortunately, there is no evidence yet that it increases deaths among vaccinated people. Two of the five vaccines — from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax — have reported some results from South Africa, and none of the people there who received a vaccine died of Covid. “People are still not getting serious illness. They’re still not dying,” Dr. Rebecca Wurtz of the University of Minnesota School of Public Health told me.



The most likely reason, epidemiologists say, is that the vaccines still provide considerable protection against the variant, albeit not quite as much as against the original version. Some protection appears to be enough to turn this coronavirus into a fairly normal disease in the vast majority of cases.

“This variant is clearly making it a little tougher to get the most vigorous response that you would want to have,” Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said. “But still, for severe disease, it’s looking really good.”



What would an expert do?
The biggest caveat is the possibility that future data will be less heartening. Johnson & Johnson and Novavax, for example, have issued press releases about their data, but no independent group has yet released an analysis. It will also be important to see much more data about how the vaccines interact with the variants.

But don’t confuse uncertainty with bad news. The available vaccine evidence is nearly as positive as it could conceivably be. And our overly negative interpretation of it is causing real problems.

Some people worry that schools cannot reopen even after teachers are vaccinated. Others are left with the mistaken impression that only the two vaccines with the highest official effectiveness rates — from Moderna and Pfizer — are worth getting.

In truth, so long as the data holds up, any of the five vaccines can save your life.

Last week, Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University told my colleague Denise Grady about a conversation he had with other experts. During it, they imagined that a close relative had to choose between getting the Johnson & Johnson vaccine now or waiting three weeks to get the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine. “All of us said, ‘Get the one tomorrow,’” Schaffner said. “The virus is bad. You’re risking three more weeks of exposure as opposed to getting protection tomorrow.”
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on February 01, 2021, 07:02:33 PM
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the good thing over looked by most of the reporting on the variants, is the fact that all the vaccines seem to lessen the effects of whichever strain of the virus. IOW, if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital.
At this point covid be comes con-crud


from todays' NYtimes quoted because it's behind a paywall
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html

First, about the vaccines.  IMO, they are all the same.  The results just need the proper interpretation.  The BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were all evaluated against the prototype virus.  Novavax and J&J had the variants mixed in.  I think we will find that once data comes in about the variants and the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines they will have the same level of effectiveness.  Also, the reason that the J&J vaccine has lower overall effectiveness is that this result is from their 1 dose arm.  If you look at the effectiveness of the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines after only 1 dose, it's about the same.  I fully expect the 2 dose arm of J&J to match that of BioNTech and Moderna.  Which is to be expected.  Since all these vaccines do the exact same thing.  They introduce the spike protein into the bloodstream so that your body can build immunity.  Whether it's MRNA, particle or live virus the end result is the same.

As for it not being a problem as long as people don't die, I think it's still a big problem.  We have been considering this a binary event, either you live or die.  Unfortunately, that's not the case.  Many people that recovered or didn't even suffer any symptoms initially, have fallout from covid weeks or months down the road.  We have to consider the long term effects.  That has yet to be determined for people that have been vaccinated and get infected.

Another problem with only preventing serious illness is that people still get infected.  Thus the virus still has a playground and tension to mutate.  Sooner or later, there can be a mutation which will be much worse than what we have now where the vaccine may not be effective.  As long as the virus is spreading, even if people don't get hospitalized, that will be a danger.

Which is why we need to stop it outright.  We need to prevent spread and thus prevent mutation.  That's why we can't just vaccinate the developed world and let the developing world burn.  Since if covid has shown us nothing else, if anyone is sick anywhere in the world it's not going to take long for the rest of the world to get sick as well.

I'm a broken record but vaccinated or not, until this is over, wear a mask and stay home.  No variant has yet to defeat a face mask.  I wish public health wasn't setting the expectation that this will be over anytime soon.  It's going to be a while.  Some don't do that.  Some are already warning about a surge next fall.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on February 01, 2021, 08:20:30 PM
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As for it not being a problem as long as people don't die, I think it's still a big problem.  We have been considering this a binary event, either you live or die.  Unfortunately, that's not the case.  Many people that recovered or didn't even suffer any symptoms initially, have fallout from covid weeks or months down the road.  We have to consider the long term effects.  That has yet to be determined for people that have been vaccinated and get infected.

Another problem with only preventing serious illness is that people still get infected.  Thus the virus still has a playground and tension to mutate.  Sooner or later, there can be a mutation which will be much worse than what we have now where the vaccine may not be effective.  As long as the virus is spreading, even if people don't get hospitalized, that will be a danger.

Just to be crystal clear i did NOT say "it not being a problem as long as people don't die,"
I said "if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital."

Getting any type of virus/flu/covid is not good & can lead to mutation of the virus. It totally would be great if everyone in the world would agree to eradicate the covid, like was done with polo etc.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on February 01, 2021, 09:22:39 PM
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Just to be crystal clear i did NOT say "it not being a problem as long as people don't die,"
I said "if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital."

Getting any type of virus/flu/covid is not good & can lead to mutation of the virus. It totally would be great if everyone in the world would agree to eradicate the covid, like was done with polo etc.

Oh I didn't mean to imply that you said that.  I meant in general.  In any reporting about covid, it's always in terms of how many infected and how many dead.  We have been conditioned to think of it as being recovered or dead.  It's more nuanced than that.  Say someone is a professional athlete.  That someone may only be .1% better than someone else.  If they catch covid even without apparent symptoms, they may suffer long term effects that make them less competitive.  That maybe the difference between being able to be a professional athlete and stocking shelves.

We have been focused on living and dying that long term effects have taken a back seat.  In the years and decades to come once covid has been controlled, those long term effects will be the legacy of this pandemic.  It's not just about being athletic, it's everyday things like brain fog, nausea, sore throats and fatigue.  There are a lot of people that are considered "recovered" because they didn't die or even be hospitalized that have been suffering long term effects for weeks or months.  In that regard it's different from what the cold or flu generally do.

Most viruses tend to mutate to be less deadly.  Which makes sense.  It's bad for them if you die.  You're their home.  Mutations that kill tend to die out since well... they kill their host.  That's why ebola hasn't swept the world.  It's too deadly.  The Spanish Flu never went away.  What happened was that it quickly mutated to become less deadly.  That's what became the dominant strain of the flu.  It became the relatively benign virus we know today.  Covid is doing the opposite.  It's mutating to be more deadly.  Hopefully that will reverse and it will do as other viruses have.  It will become both more transmissible and less virulent.  Thus a less deadly form of it will become the dominant strain.  In time, if we are lucky, it will just become another cold.  Right now though, it's not heading that way.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: omraged9 on February 03, 2021, 01:32:25 AM
Covid is mutating to become more contagious, not necessarily more deadly. It's such a unique virus in that it is spread so easily before one's death (and before the host experiences symptoms too). Most of the deadly respiratory viruses end up burning itself out by killing their hosts too fast before spreading it to enough hosts like original SARS virus.

I don't really understand why J&J made a one-dose vaccine. I understand one dose is better than two and one dose can save lives but if people get the one dose and still catch covid, it's just going to lead to more variants and the pandemic will never end. I understand we need as many people vaccinated as possible but the J&J a true vaccine if it has such a low efficacy? I wonder if a few months from now after people start getting the J&J vaccine but these people still get sick, if they'll need to get the Pfizer or Moderna shots. It doesn't appear that J&J will be able to finish their two-dose FDA trials until late this year. Maybe the Biden administration should order extra extra Moderna shots for these people.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on February 03, 2021, 06:07:47 PM
Why cant we have comic-con this year?  Because of things like this.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/florida-grocery-store-captures-country-s-divide-over-wearing-masks-100487237927

That's partly why the US is ranked 94th out of 98 in terms of how well the pandemic has been handled.  Or you can think of it as we are 4th best in being worst.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on February 26, 2021, 04:40:35 PM
I'm hearing rumblings from panelists that are being asked to record video presentations for a virtual Comic-Con.  What this means:
* CCI is planning for virtual Comic-Con; or at least they're planning for a hybrid type of SDCCI with online panels and perhaps in-person events

OR

* CCI is hedging their bets: planning for the possibility of a virtual Comic-Con while also planning for in-person Con

Lots of speculation to be made here; as a San Diego resident I think that it feels unlikely our Governor will allow an event as large as Comic-Con (he probably doesn't want something akin to Sturgess motorcycle event that became a notorious super-spreader event that ravaged several neighboring states).  It's possible that a modified convention could happen, however.  From Jan. 20th when Biden took office/took over Federal Government to Feb. 25th vaccine production has increase by around 70%; at that rate of improvement, it feels possible that we can get a majority of folks vaccinated by summer in order to have a relatively safe Comic-Con (note: calling things "safe" nowadays isn't going to be accurate for a long time; more like "mitigating risks" and minimizing risk down to incredibly small possibilities).

It's nice to know that CCI is at the least preparing for different possibilities   :-\
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on February 27, 2021, 04:10:03 AM
This increase in vaccination makes it seem more likely that we'll see cons after summer.  For me, that sounds more like NYCC and PAX-U.  I'd love there to be SDCC this year but to the above points, it may still be too close to call.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on February 27, 2021, 07:47:52 AM
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I'm hearing rumblings from panelists that are being asked to record video presentations for a virtual Comic-Con.  What this means:
* CCI is planning for virtual Comic-Con; or at least they're planning for a hybrid type of SDCCI with online panels and perhaps in-person events

OR


* CCI is hedging their bets: planning for the possibility of a virtual Comic-Con while also planning for in-person Con

<snip>

It's nice to know that CCI is at the least preparing for different possibilities   :-\

I would take any bet, any time of the day that CCI is planning for both eventualities! #notABettingPerson

As u alluded to, it's out of CCI's hands- it's up to how fast Jabs happen & the political machine can move.
if there looks to be a surplus of vaccine by june, i'm changing my vote to a 'Go'
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on February 27, 2021, 10:53:22 AM
I think it's already too late for in person comic-con this year.  Even considering the government projections, that anyone who wants a vaccine can get one starting in June/July, it's too late.  It's 4-6 weeks from the first injection before full efficacy.  Which would put it past comic-con's traditional date.

Also, it's not how much vaccine is available, it's how many get vaccinated.  Which is not looking good here in the US.  Even among healthcare workers there is vaccine resistance.  Some entities have reported 50-60% refusal rates.  If that mirrors the general population then that's not enough to bring the prevalence of covid down so low as to get back to normal.  In the end, I fear the US will do what we did in 1918.  We will simply give up.  What happens, happens.  We're already going down that road.  The standards for reopening keep loosening.

That's not to say that we won't see cons somewhere in the US.  There's that fair size convention going on right now in Florida.  Pleads to mask by the organizers were met with jeers.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on February 27, 2021, 01:32:17 PM
To all the CPAs and tax attorneys, can CCI rollover the tickets to next year?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on February 27, 2021, 05:36:34 PM
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To all the CPAs and tax attorneys, can CCI rollover the tickets to next year?



The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on February 27, 2021, 05:57:03 PM
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The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.
Thank you!


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: DaveG on February 27, 2021, 09:07:24 PM
Still lots of hurdles to overcome.

Yes, by June everyone who wants a vaccine may be able to get one. However, what percent will refuse? Will the percent that do get it be high enough to consider it herd immunity? What about international attendees? Not every country is moving at the same pace. Best case, maybe they would be allowed to attend with proof of being vaccinated. But if CCI requires a vaccine, will there be a group that takes them to court over that requirement? Do they have systems in place to police any new policies? Will there be enforcement or just a "honor system"? How long are vaccines effective? if you were vaccinated in January, are you still safe in July? There's no way to know that for sure without tracking results. What if there are new variants? What about people who still refuse to wear masks?

There are just so many unknowns at this point that it's hard to imagine SDCC going forward this year without significant constraints. I think we're looking at a hybrid con or a virtual con. I'm trying to hold out hope. I really do think some cons will come back this year, but SDCC with its size and scope feels like a really tough one to pull off. I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: FBS on February 28, 2021, 07:20:32 AM
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Still lots of hurdles to overcome.

Yes, by June everyone who wants a vaccine may be able to get one. However, what percent will refuse? Will the percent that do get it be high enough to consider it herd immunity? What about international attendees? Not every country is moving at the same pace. Best case, maybe they would be allowed to attend with proof of being vaccinated. But if CCI requires a vaccine, will there be a group that takes them to court over that requirement? Do they have systems in place to police any new policies? Will there be enforcement or just a "honor system"? How long are vaccines effective? if you were vaccinated in January, are you still safe in July? There's no way to know that for sure without tracking results. What if there are new variants? What about people who still refuse to wear masks?

There are just so many unknowns at this point that it's hard to imagine SDCC going forward this year without significant constraints. I think we're looking at a hybrid con or a virtual con. I'm trying to hold out hope. I really do think some cons will come back this year, but SDCC with its size and scope feels like a really tough one to pull off. I hope I'm wrong.
Nice to see a mention of international attendees. Thanks Dave.
Here in the UK we are currently unable to travel anywhere. It is illegal to go on holiday. If you fly into the UK you have to quarantine in a hotel for ten days at your own expense.
The government have said they hope to offer everyone over 18 their first jab by end of July. Our road to recovery was published recently and it suggests that if everything goes as hoped then travel could be back on by June. But now vaccination passports are being discussed. But mainly for Europe. US is not even being discussed at present. That is a much bigger discussion apparently.

So while there may be cross-country travel allowed by July in the US, you would need full international as well. Otherwise there is going to be a lot of pissed off international attendees and exhibitors and talent.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on February 28, 2021, 11:44:23 AM
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The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.
Also
1) it seems INCREDIBLY plausible/likely SDCCI will be 'back to normal' in 2022: meaning, they wouldn't have to stress mitigating attendance, and it would be 'easy' to just roll-over to next year again.  I know a handful of folks who have badges for 2021 that will definitely not go because they live with high-risk family members and still feel the situation is too dangerous now.
2) rolling over would also mean CCI sitting on the interest another year: some of the only income they're seeing right now
3) it would definitely placate the fanbase/attendees

It _feels_ like a win-win from my admittedly unknowledable position here. 
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on February 28, 2021, 12:41:44 PM
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Thank you!


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I'm not rich, but I do ok.  I'm at a point in my life when I can be generous.  Actually, being generous has gotten me to this point.  I say all that to say this...

If it helps to maintain the event, they can keep my money.

If they need a donation,  I'm willing to do that as well.

This event is that important to me.     It has given me great joy, and I'm willing to make sacrifices for it to continue.  :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on February 28, 2021, 02:51:10 PM
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I'm not rich, but I do ok.  I'm at a point in my life when I can be generous.  Actually, being generous has gotten me to this point.  I say all that to say this...

If it helps to maintain the event, they can keep my money.

If they need a donation,  I'm willing to do that as well.

This event is that important to me.     It has given me great joy, and I'm willing to make sacrifices for it to continue.  :)
Me too


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on February 28, 2021, 03:19:52 PM
So say we all.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on February 28, 2021, 03:54:50 PM
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Also
1) it seems INCREDIBLY plausible/likely SDCCI will be 'back to normal' in 2022: meaning, they wouldn't have to stress mitigating attendance, and it would be 'easy' to just roll-over to next year again.  I know a handful of folks who have badges for 2021 that will definitely not go because they live with high-risk family members and still feel the situation is too dangerous now.
2) rolling over would also mean CCI sitting on the interest another year: some of the only income they're seeing right now
3) it would definitely placate the fanbase/attendees

It _feels_ like a win-win from my admittedly unknowledable position here.

Unless they have the money in some instrument that earns decent interest, holding onto the money costs them.  I'll be generous and round off safe interest rates at about 1%.  Inflation is double that.  So the buying power of that money is dropping 1% a year.  It's losing value.

My stance has been that it doesn't make sense to rollover.  It's unclear when the next comic-con will be and how much the next comic-con will cost.  The cleanest thing to have done is refund everyone.  To placate attendees, they could give those attendees the right of first refusal to buy new badges when the time comes.

I don't know anything about CCI's financials other than what's been reported, but I can't see how they could be in financial difficulty.  At a minimum, they are getting Federal aid.  There's still PPP money available, my bank keeps asking me to apply for some.  CCI has said they have the reserves to ride out a failed con.  That still hasn't happened.  I don't consider the canceled Wondercons and last year's comic-con to be that.  By all reports, they were released from contracts and insurance kicked in so they should be whole.  The reserves should still be there.  I don't know how much it costs to put on comic-con, but I have sat in on budgeting for another conference of similar size put on by a non-profit.  Considering that CCI is a volunteer organization and the number of paid employees are limited, CCI should be able to go on for a long time off the reserves even without Federal aid.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: darqamin on February 28, 2021, 07:25:04 PM
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I'm hearing rumblings from panelists that are being asked to record video presentations for a virtual Comic-Con.  What this means:
* CCI is planning for virtual Comic-Con; or at least they're planning for a hybrid type of SDCCI with online panels and perhaps in-person events

OR

* CCI is hedging their bets: planning for the possibility of a virtual Comic-Con while also planning for in-person Con

\

Interesting to hear about the potential video presentations being canvassed already.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: darqamin on March 01, 2021, 12:13:40 PM
I misread the tweet a couple of times, I thought the in person convention was cancelled but it was rather moved to November and a shorter event.

https://twitter.com/Comic_Con/status/1366478468091965440/photo/1

I am not sure if I would be in a position to attend. Everyone in Canada will be vaccinated before that date but I'm not sure what the state of the pandemic overall will be, plus not sure if I can take that time off in November. It would be interesting in a way to attend San Diego at a different time of year.

But there is also the online event in July - so is this November event truly "SDCC"? Or is it some other event? Will be interesting to see.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on March 01, 2021, 12:24:18 PM
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I misread the tweet a couple of times, I thought the in person convention was cancelled but it was rather moved to November and a shorter event.

https://twitter.com/Comic_Con/status/1366478468091965440/photo/1

I am not sure if I would be in a position to attend. Everyone in Canada will be vaccinated before that date but I'm not sure what the state of the pandemic overall will be, plus not sure if I can take that time off in November. It would be interesting in a way to attend San Diego at a different time of year.

But there is also the online event in July - so is this November event truly "SDCC"? Or is it some other event? Will be interesting to see.
There's no date specific for the November event, right (stupid marching band season will likely preclude me from attending anyway)?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on March 01, 2021, 12:48:43 PM
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But there is also the online event in July - so is this November event truly "SDCC"? Or is it some other event? Will be interesting to see.

I don't think it will be a full on comic-con.  Why have a virtual one in July in that case?  It'll probably be a back to basics comic-con, a classic comic-con.  I still think it would be cool to combine a virtual online comic-con with a small in person comic-con timed to celebrate the opening of the CCM.  That is still slated to open this year.

In regards to this thread, would a smaller November in person event satisfy it?  If so, I'll need to change my vote.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 01, 2021, 12:50:50 PM
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I misread the tweet a couple of times, I thought the in person convention was cancelled but it was rather moved to November and a shorter event.

https://twitter.com/Comic_Con/status/1366478468091965440/photo/1

I am not sure if I would be in a position to attend. Everyone in Canada will be vaccinated before that date but I'm not sure what the state of the pandemic overall will be, plus not sure if I can take that time off in November. It would be interesting in a way to attend San Diego at a different time of year.

But there is also the online event in July - so is this November event truly "SDCC"? Or is it some other event? Will be interesting to see.

In my head I thought moving the convention to a later date would be a good option.  If they pulled that off, then I'm thinking they're looking at another badge sale.  Interesting.  I'd definitely go to BOTH!!!

If it's shorter, I'm thinking Friday to Sunday. 
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on March 01, 2021, 01:03:36 PM
SDCC 2021 attendee badges are being rolled over to SDCC 2022 (although they are allowing some exhibitors to use their credit towards November). So it sounds like the November event will be a separate event. It will be three days and they say that pricing and capacity limits are forthcoming, so it won't be a full SDCC. I suspect it will be more like WonderCon.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RSilvaConFan on March 01, 2021, 01:14:44 PM
It will probably still be hard to get a ticket to the November event -  I see a lottery coming!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: madfly on March 01, 2021, 01:29:36 PM
Looks like maybe Nov 19-21?? On the SD Convention center website it says "Private Convention with Trade show" for that weekend.  All the other Nov weekends are booked with the names of the event.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on March 01, 2021, 01:45:32 PM
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Looks like maybe Nov 19-21?? On the SD Convention center website it says "Private Convention with Trade show" for that weekend.  All the other Nov weekends are booked with the names of the event.

If so, it'll be small since the attendance for that event will be 7000.  It'll also be confusing since there are two other events at the convention center that weekend.

If it's a smaller event, it may not be at the convention center.  In my mind, I'm picturing something like comic fest.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on March 01, 2021, 01:49:41 PM
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It will probably still be hard to get a ticket to the November event -  I see a lottery coming!
IDK; it's def. not hard to go to the early spring WonderCon event, which I suspect may be larger than the November event.  I suspect at best the Nov. event will be similar to WonderCon: some comic company & TV/movie presence but nothing like Comic-Con size-wise
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: madfly on March 01, 2021, 01:54:15 PM
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If so, it'll be small since the attendance for that event will be 7000.  It'll also be confusing since there are two other events at the convention center that weekend.

If it's a smaller event, it may not be at the convention center.  In my mind, I'm picturing something like comic fest.

I didn't see any other events that same weekend. I'll have to look again. But you're right, it may be at a different location....
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 01, 2021, 01:58:42 PM
and the poll is locked


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<snip>In my mind, I'm picturing something like comic fest.
my thoughts exactly. I wonder what state the museum will be in?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: puppy on March 01, 2021, 02:10:48 PM
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Looks like maybe Nov 19-21?? On the SD Convention center website it says "Private Convention with Trade show" for that weekend.  All the other Nov weekends are booked with the names of the event.

I booked just in case, LOL. Hilton Bayfront is a steal.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on March 01, 2021, 02:27:13 PM
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I didn't see any other events that same weekend. I'll have to look again. But you're right, it may be at a different location....

11/20-11/21 also has "The Fit Expo San Diego" and the "Epic Series Obstacle Challenge".
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 01, 2021, 02:34:06 PM
"In addition, we are currently working on an option for those wishing to transfer their badge or exhibitor deposits/payments as full or partial payment towards our 2021 November event. "

I just read this statement again and realized I missed something.  It looks like there are three (3) options for those of us who rolled our badges over to the 2021 event.

1.  refund
2.  roll over to 2022
3.  Use your badge for the November Event (the part I missed)

So if you pick #3, you might have to buy a badge for the 2022 event.  I'm ok with that.

Anybody else come to a different conclusion?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RSilvaConFan on March 01, 2021, 02:38:40 PM
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"In addition, we are currently working on an option for those wishing to transfer their badge or exhibitor deposits/payments as full or partial payment towards our 2021 November event. "

I just read this statement again and realized I missed something.  It looks like there are three (3) options for those of us who rolled our badges over to the 2021 event.

1.  refund
2.  roll over to 2022
3.  Use your badge for the November Event (the part I missed)

So if you pick #3, you might have to buy a badge for the 2022 event.  I'm ok with that.

Anybody else come to a different conclusion?

I wonder if Pro Badges that were rolled over to 2021 will also be rolled over to 2022?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on March 01, 2021, 02:39:59 PM
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and the poll is locked

my thoughts exactly. I wonder what state the museum will be in?

::Goes to vote::  Heeeeeeeeey!  Its been closed!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 01, 2021, 02:41:22 PM
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::Goes to vote::  Heeeeeeeeey!  Its been closed!

foiled again!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 01, 2021, 02:43:30 PM
FYI DCon is Nov 12-14

buckle up, it's gonna be a busy November
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Transmute Jun on March 01, 2021, 02:44:25 PM
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"In addition, we are currently working on an option for those wishing to transfer their badge or exhibitor deposits/payments as full or partial payment towards our 2021 November event. "

I just read this statement again and realized I missed something.  It looks like there are three (3) options for those of us who rolled our badges over to the 2021 event.

1.  refund
2.  roll over to 2022
3.  Use your badge for the November Event (the part I missed)

So if you pick #3, you might have to buy a badge for the 2022 event.  I'm ok with that.

Anybody else come to a different conclusion?

JMHO, but I wouldn't risk your badge for the 2022 event. If it's bigger in capacity, it is likely to be bigger in offerings as well. That will be the more desirable event for most of us.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on March 01, 2021, 02:55:55 PM
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foiled again!

And I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for those darn kids!

#scoobydooforever!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 01, 2021, 02:56:15 PM
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JMHO, but I wouldn't risk your badge for the 2022 event. If it's bigger in capacity, it is likely to be bigger in offerings as well. That will be the more desirable event for most of us.
Thanks for the advice, but...

1.  Assuming the wonderful buying groups this forum has established are still intact, I have faith I will score a badge for 2022.

2.  My backup is volunteering (which I'm fine with)

If they are able to pull off an event in November, I'm going for it.  It will really go a long way towards helping me wait for the big event in 2022 psychologically.  Seriously, when I read the statement about the possible November event, it lifted my spirits.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Transmute Jun on March 01, 2021, 03:00:10 PM
I agree with your final statement, but I'll risk the buying group route for the November event if it happens. ;)

Regardless, I think we can agree that we would both like to attend both events.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RSilvaConFan on March 01, 2021, 03:13:01 PM
If the November in-person event is possibly going to be limited to 7,000 people as the convention center schedule seems to indicate for an event on Nov 19-21 - the last time San Diego Comic-con was that small was in 1988 with 8,000 attendees at the old downtown convention center.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 01, 2021, 03:26:18 PM
"Unfortunately, the challenges of this past year and the multiple postponements of our two largest events have left us with limited financial resources, so this year the online experience will be reduced to a three-day event, spanning July 23-25, 2021."

I was also concerned about CCI's ability to hang on financially if they cancelled the 2021 Con.  However, their offer of refunds, their plan for a November event, and their planning for an event in 2022, tells me they feel they can weather this hit financially.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RSilvaConFan on March 01, 2021, 03:50:24 PM
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"Unfortunately, the challenges of this past year and the multiple postponements of our two largest events have left us with limited financial resources, so this year the online experience will be reduced to a three-day event, spanning July 23-25, 2021."

I was also concerned about CCI's ability to hang on financially if they cancelled the 2021 Con.  However, their offer of refunds, their plan for a November event, and their planning for an event in 2022, tells me they feel they can weather this hit financially.

I am thinking they will charge enough of a price to attend the November event to raise some money.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 01, 2021, 03:57:44 PM
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I am thinking they will charge enough of a price to attend the November event to raise some money.

Maybe...

However the statement below implies a 2021 badge holder can use that for the November event.  If that's the case, they won't be getting more money from the November event.

"In addition, we are currently working on an option for those wishing to transfer their badge or exhibitor deposits/payments as full or partial payment towards our 2021 November event"
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on March 01, 2021, 04:13:33 PM
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Maybe...

However the statement below implies a 2021 badge holder can use that for the November event.  If that's the case, they won't be getting more money from the November event.

"In addition, we are currently working on an option for those wishing to transfer their badge or exhibitor deposits/payments as full or partial payment towards our 2021 November event"
I may have misinterpreted it, but when I first read that I thought that it meant that this was an option for exhibitors. I didn’t think it extended to the general badge holder.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on March 01, 2021, 06:39:50 PM
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I may have misinterpreted it, but when I first read that I thought that it meant that this was an option for exhibitors. I didn’t think it extended to the general badge holder.


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Also, I read that as maybe an 'either/or' type thing.  As in, "we're looking at an option to swap July 2021 badge for Nov. 2021 badge."  I'm not sure of what person would prefer to apply SDCCI badge to a smaller Nov. badge at the expense of 2022 SDCCI, but maybe if someone needs a refund but also 'needs' a Con fix, this could be an option.

Hard telling...

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If the November in-person event is possibly going to be limited to 7,000 people as the convention center schedule seems to indicate for an event on Nov 19-21 - the last time San Diego Comic-con was that small was in 1988 with 8,000 attendees at the old downtown convention center.
I sincerely wouldn't put a lot of stock in that # at this time; that's roughly 5% (more than 5%, less than 6%) of the recorded SD Convention Center capacity (125k), so that could be 'all' they were able to officially book at this time due to current county COVID capacity limits.  A LOT can/will change over the next 8.5 months that will likely significantly change that capacity limit for in-person, indoor events.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: omraged9 on March 01, 2021, 07:30:35 PM
It's interesting news about a potential November convention. If I had to take a guess, perhaps this is their attempt at a smaller hybrid con. I expect very few, if any, celebrities to show up. There might be some TV/movie panels that will be shown on the screens in the bigger halls with enough space to allow social distancing. They'll probably have to limit the crowds in the exhibit hall. If they are going to hold a smaller hybrid con, I'm glad that they're not asking the attendees to use their entire 2020 badge fees for a smaller con.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on March 01, 2021, 09:01:36 PM
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I may have misinterpreted it, but when I first read that I thought that it meant that this was an option for exhibitors. I didn’t think it extended to the general badge holder.

That's how I read it.  They talked about individuals first then they talked about exhibitors.  That option seems to apply to the exhibitors.

I don't see why anyone would trade their comic-con badge for this event.  This event will not be comic-con.  If it were, then comic-con wouldn't be virtual in July.  They would just postpone it to this event.  I think it's obvious that this will be a smaller event.  There will not be the stars and spectacle to justify paying as much for it as comic-con.  Just look at Wondercon pricing.  That's still an impressive con but the prices are much lower than comic-con.  Trading comic-con passes for a smaller con doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: darqamin on March 01, 2021, 09:33:44 PM
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and the poll is locked


Glad it was locked - makes the poll accurate as a snapshot of what people thought before the decision was released  :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 02, 2021, 05:50:32 AM
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That's how I read it.  They talked about individuals first then they talked about exhibitors.  That option seems to apply to the exhibitors.

I don't see why anyone would trade their comic-con badge for this event.  This event will not be comic-con.  If it were, then comic-con wouldn't be virtual in July.  They would just postpone it to this event.  I think it's obvious that this will be a smaller event.  There will not be the stars and spectacle to justify paying as much for it as comic-con.  Just look at Wondercon pricing.  That's still an impressive con but the prices are much lower than comic-con.  Trading comic-con passes for a smaller con doesn't make sense.
Depends on why you go to Comic-Con.  I don't go for the stars.  I go for the smaller panels and the atmosphere of being around my peeps, even if it is a smaller group.  I don't have any illusion that the November event will be as magnificent as the ultimate one in July.  If they pull it off, I'll check it out just to get back into some of that atmosphere.

The November event may also be a nod to the town of San Diego and the hotels and restaurants.  Granted, it won't be as a big, but it will be a help to their economy.  I'm ok with that.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on March 02, 2021, 08:47:27 AM
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That's how I read it.  They talked about individuals first then they talked about exhibitors.  That option seems to apply to the exhibitors.

I don't see why anyone would trade their comic-con badge for this event.  This event will not be comic-con.  If it were, then comic-con wouldn't be virtual in July.  They would just postpone it to this event.  I think it's obvious that this will be a smaller event.  There will not be the stars and spectacle to justify paying as much for it as comic-con.  Just look at Wondercon pricing.  That's still an impressive con but the prices are much lower than comic-con.  Trading comic-con passes for a smaller con doesn't make sense.
What if someone got 'only' a Sunday badge for 2020 Comic-Con (then 2021, now 2022).  Maybe it would make more sense for them to trade in that Sunday-only badge towards (or for depending on price) a full weekend's pass for the November thing. 
While I would agree with you in my personal situation (as a Pro I have 4-Day +PN w/out having to deal with the random sales stuff), my situation may be very different from others
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: semigeekgirl on March 02, 2021, 08:50:36 AM
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. If you only have a one-day badge it might make sense to trade it, depending on finances, travel, etc. It's nice that they extend the option at least.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: madfly on March 02, 2021, 09:30:42 AM
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I booked just in case, LOL. Hilton Bayfront is a steal.

Other people must have had the same idea....Hilton Bayfront is sold out that weekend ;)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RSilvaConFan on March 02, 2021, 09:34:45 AM
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Other people must have had the same idea....Hilton Bayfront is sold out that weekend ;)

There are also two other small conventions scheduled in the convention center that weekend.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 02, 2021, 09:52:39 AM
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There are also two other small conventions scheduled in the convention center that weekend.
Crazy thought...

What if CCI picks dates during the week.    :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: madfly on March 02, 2021, 09:57:01 AM
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Crazy thought...

What if CCI picks dates during the week.    :)

Ugh...could be and that would suck!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on March 02, 2021, 10:08:01 AM
I wouldn’t necessarily read much into the November 19-21 “Convention With Trade Show” being SDCC’s event. There are multiple other “Convention with Trade Shows” of similar sizes listed in surrounding months so that description alone does not make me think SDCC (the bigger giveaway when that description was used in July was the estimated attendance of 135,000.). I also think the November event will be bigger than 7000 (although 7000 is still within the realm of possibility.)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on March 02, 2021, 10:27:09 AM
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What if someone got 'only' a Sunday badge for 2020 Comic-Con (then 2021, now 2022).  Maybe it would make more sense for them to trade in that Sunday-only badge towards (or for depending on price) a full weekend's pass for the November thing. 
While I would agree with you in my personal situation (as a Pro I have 4-Day +PN w/out having to deal with the random sales stuff), my situation may be very different from others

Possible, but that would complicate it.  What if someone wanted to trade a 4 day?  A badge day would then have to some value and then CCI would have to be able to make change.

Also if you trade in your comic-con badge, even just a Sunday, would that mean you would lose returning registration?  Since you are giving up your comic-con badge, I don't see why it wouldn't.  It's just like you asked for a refund.  Return registration has intangible value.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: semigeekgirl on March 02, 2021, 10:32:36 AM
Agreed on return registration having a real-but-difficult-to-quantify value. But Comic-Con days already have stated values - it would be the cost of buying that single day ticket. It wouldn't be hard for CCI to 'make change' if they want to.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 02, 2021, 12:50:06 PM
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I wouldn’t necessarily read much into the November 19-21 “Convention With Trade Show” being SDCC’s event. There are multiple other “Convention with Trade Shows” of similar sizes listed in surrounding months so that description alone does not make me think SDCC (the bigger giveaway when that description was used in July was the estimated attendance of 135,000.). I also think the November event will be bigger than 7000 (although 7000 is still within the realm of possibility.)

it may be that cci is setting expectations for a low attendance rate in case they can't get a large venue. I would imagine they could do 7K at the museum but if they could do another venue.....
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: semigeekgirl on March 02, 2021, 12:58:07 PM
The Convention Center is implying they will be involved: https://twitter.com/SDConventionCtr/status/1366483582563143682?s=19

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Transmute Jun on March 02, 2021, 01:33:38 PM
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The Convention Center is implying they will be involved: https://twitter.com/SDConventionCtr/status/1366483582563143682?s=19

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That's great to hear!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on March 02, 2021, 01:52:25 PM
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The Convention Center is implying they will be involved: https://twitter.com/SDConventionCtr/status/1366483582563143682?s=19

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This is pure speculation on my part, but...

Based on an article from the unofficial blog, that is linked to an interview with David Glanzer, if all ducks line up in a row, we're looking at more than 7000.

Just speculating...

https://sdccblog.com/2021/03/what-we-know-about-comic-con-internationals-november-event/
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on March 04, 2021, 12:03:20 AM
This is most likely the November 19-21 "Private Event: Convention With Trade Show / Not Open to the Public": https://www.visitsandiego.com/calendar/2203218-amer-council-on-the-teaching-of-foreign-language?highlight=WyJhY3RmbCJd

Also cross referenced on their website: https://www.actfl.org/convention-and-expo
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 04, 2021, 07:34:24 AM
We've started a new thread and poll for speculation about the date of the as yet unNamed Nov con.
https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?topic=11780.0

I, and the rest of the moderating team, kindly encourage moving the Nov date discussion to the new thread ;)  #fairWarrning
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on March 04, 2021, 02:52:24 PM
So when does this thread get changed to "Poll: The Status of SDCC 2022" :D
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on March 04, 2021, 09:47:04 PM
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So when does this thread get changed to "Poll: The Status of SDCC 2022" :D
lol
it's likely going to be locked but for now it's a free play zone about summer cons in SD ;)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Transmute Jun on April 10, 2021, 12:48:12 PM
ColossalCon is taking place in Sandusky, Ohio, on the weekend of June 2-6. These are the COVID-related restrictions.

https://colossalcon.com/health-procedures-for-colossalcon-2021/

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If cons like this are successful, that could have an impact on the kinds of restrictions in place for Comic Con Special Edition in November.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: NoNoNuni on May 03, 2021, 11:33:01 AM
I'd be interested to see what happens to Con season this summer. I'm vaccinated up, optimistic and hopeful for San Diego in 2022. Maybe by then I'll be ready to be in a room with thousands of people again  :D :D
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: stl_ben on May 04, 2021, 02:14:15 PM
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ColossalCon is taking place in Sandusky, Ohio, on the weekend of June 2-6. These are the COVID-related restrictions.

https://colossalcon.com/health-procedures-for-colossalcon-2021/

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If cons like this are successful, that could have an impact on the kinds of restrictions in place for Comic Con Special Edition in November.
IMO they have too many exceptions to who doesn't have to wear a mask, doing this makes it so basically anyone who doesn't want to wear one, won't .  Which makes it dangerous for everyone.  Easy pass for me on a show set up like this.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on May 05, 2021, 08:27:10 AM
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IMO they have too many exceptions to who doesn't have to wear a mask, doing this makes it so basically anyone who doesn't want to wear one, won't .  Which makes it dangerous for everyone.  Easy pass for me on a show set up like this.
I agree; that feels like reckless behavior, and if organizers are going to be cavalier about a pandemic decision, I would be concerned about other poor decisions management may make.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on May 05, 2021, 11:14:48 AM
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I agree; that feels like reckless behavior, and if organizers are going to be cavalier about a pandemic decision, I would be concerned about other poor decisions management they may make.

This perfectly sums up how I look at those I come into contact with now.  I'm becoming a judgmental person, though I wish I weren't.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Mario Wario on May 21, 2021, 12:25:08 PM
https://twitter.com/abc7/status/1395796279997857793?s=21

“California reveals details of June 15 full reopening plan”

1. “The first and biggest change is the removal of all capacity limits and physical distancing requirements, regardless of setting. That means bars, restaurants, concert venues, grocery stores and everything in between can open at full capacity -- if they so choose.“

2. “Proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test won't be necessary to do anything, not even go to a sports game. However, the state is planning to keep some recommendations -- not requirements -- on these "mega events" in place. ... At outdoor live events with more than 10,000 people, California will recommend venues have a verification of vaccination/negative test in place. Those who aren't vaccinated or who don't show a negative test result can still enter if they wear a mask.”

3. “Indoor venues with 5,000 or more people should implement a similar verification. However, at these indoor events, non-vaccinated people who don't show a negative COVID-19 test result shouldn't enter, the state recommends.”
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on May 21, 2021, 01:25:34 PM
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3. “Indoor venues with 5,000 or more people should implement a similar verification. However, at these indoor events, non-vaccinated people who don't show a negative COVID-19 test result shouldn't enter, the state recommends.”

Without the force of law and criminal penalties I don't see how that's going to happen.  Even with the threat of that, a large fraction of the population ignores mask mandates.  Here's an example of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvQb7vW3CvU

Being private property Costco can set any requirement for entry that it wants.  Yet people feel entitled to enter.  SDCC has the same control over who can enter comic-con.  But what are the chances of them being able to do so?  The easiest way would be to make vaccination a requirement to purchase or win or be issued a badge.  That would be problematic.  In the US, it's a piece of cardboard.  Someone would have to verify each card and it would be easy to send in a photoshopped image of one.  Other countries have their own methods to prove vaccination that SDCC would have to support.

The other way is the honor system.  Are people who have shown they aren't willing to follow covid safety recommendations going follow this?  I don't think so.  Imagine the epic scenes that would happen at the door if they are challenged.  It would be very un-comic-con like.  I've worked doors before.  I was told that if people insist on entry even though their badge tags red, let them in.  Comic-con is about having fun.

Without the government and law enforcement providing cover, I don't think any convention will take it upon themselves to do it.  Companies have already conceded that point.  Just look at how many large retailers have dropped any mask requirement.  Even though it's against CDC recommendations.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: MickeyJack on May 23, 2021, 11:28:28 AM
In terms of making vaccination a requirement of badge purchase, I think that's an idea worth exploring. I could be wrong, but it is my understanding that vaccinations can be verified electronically. I was sent a code by email. It doesn't solve the immediate problem of all the current badge holders that were promised the rollover for 2022. Does SDCC just say the rules have changed? I'm guessing that most of us got vaccinations, but there's very little chance that everybody did. It would make a hell of an incentive to get it done though.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on May 24, 2021, 08:40:03 AM
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Without the force of law and criminal penalties I don't see how that's going to happen.  Even with the threat of that, a large fraction of the population ignores mask mandates.  Here's an example of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvQb7vW3CvU

Being private property Costco can set any requirement for entry that it wants.  Yet people feel entitled to enter.  SDCC has the same control over who can enter comic-con.  But what are the chances of them being able to do so?  The easiest way would be to make vaccination a requirement to purchase or win or be issued a badge.  That would be problematic.  In the US, it's a piece of cardboard.  Someone would have to verify each card and it would be easy to send in a photoshopped image of one.  Other countries have their own methods to prove vaccination that SDCC would have to support.

The other way is the honor system.  Are people who have shown they aren't willing to follow covid safety recommendations going follow this?  I don't think so.  Imagine the epic scenes that would happen at the door if they are challenged.  It would be very un-comic-con like.  I've worked doors before.  I was told that if people insist on entry even though their badge tags red, let them in.  Comic-con is about having fun.

Without the government and law enforcement providing cover, I don't think any convention will take it upon themselves to do it.  Companies have already conceded that point.  Just look at how many large retailers have dropped any mask requirement.  Even though it's against CDC recommendations.
To be blunt, many municipalities were not enforcing state mask mandates: some flat-out publicly said (from summer 2020 through winter 2021, mind you, when we were at our worst) they would not enforce easy-to-enforce things like mask mandates.  There were businesses that did get fined that broke the mandates, but there were plenty that did not.

I agree that anything CDPH/CA gov. "recommends" is toothless and for all intents and purposes meaningless.  Right now CA is in a good spot, where maybe this _IS_ an OK approach for most things: we won't know until it's all over (meaning, we'll know if there is a surge this was too quick, and if there is nothing major by, say, Thanksgiving we'll know this was the right approach - but we won't know likely for quite a bit after-the-fact).  At this point, short of businesses & high-profile/attended events requiring vaccines (which many will bulk at until 1) the vaccine is officially approved for non-emergency use, which is why state gov. officials are not requiring it in CA yet and/or 2) until it is in easy-to-get wide-release for for all ages) I don't think much will change.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on May 24, 2021, 08:41:39 AM
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In terms of making vaccination a requirement of badge purchase, I think that's an idea worth exploring. I could be wrong, but it is my understanding that vaccinations can be verified electronically. I was sent a code by email. It doesn't solve the immediate problem of all the current badge holders that were promised the rollover for 2022. Does SDCC just say the rules have changed? I'm guessing that most of us got vaccinations, but there's very little chance that everybody did. It would make a hell of an incentive to get it done though.
This is a great idea, but I've gotten the impression that in most of the world the vaccine is not as accessible as it has been in the US (even in Canada I've heard it's been hard to come by for many young adults in good health).  Maybe by summer 2022 this will change
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on May 31, 2021, 09:30:02 PM
Petco had two large, for the pandemic, concerts this last weekend.  Both with about 7,000 people.  They had separate seating areas for the vaccinated and the non-vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on June 01, 2021, 05:51:41 AM
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Petco had two large, for the pandemic, concerts this last weekend.  Both with about 7,000 people.  They had separate seating areas for the vaccinated and the non-vaccinated.

How did they determine who was vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SteveD on June 01, 2021, 08:27:19 AM
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How did they determine who was vaccinated.
RFID scan.  :D
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on June 01, 2021, 10:51:04 AM
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How did they determine who was vaccinated.
For Padres games at least, until the June 15th week where the state opens back up/lifts mandates Petco requires furnishing either the vaccination card to get into the vaccination only section, or proof of a negative COVID test from within 48 hours of the game.  There are separate entrances for the vaccinated vs general seating areas