Author Topic: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid  (Read 127953 times)

Offline Mario Wario

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #240 on: May 19, 2020, 06:37:47 AM »
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Overall, the response was similar to people that recovered from covid.  It's still unclear if that's enough for immunity.  There's the recent case of the 14 people on the Roosevelt.  They had covid, they recovered, they tested negative twice and now they are symptomatic again testing positive again.
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Overall, nothing to worry about as the link above says. Unless a virus totally changes overnight, sure, a person can get sick again, but lots of evidence says the coronavirus is not doing that thus far. Also note that some people need extra time to recover after being sick with the virus even when they are still showing some symptoms weeks later.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 06:57:09 AM by Mario Wario »
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Offline Miclpea

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #241 on: May 19, 2020, 06:50:56 AM »
I believe the testing is flawed and people are not being reinfected as that would truly be a game-changer.

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #242 on: Today at 06:29:04 AM »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #242 on: May 19, 2020, 01:12:24 PM »
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it's my understanding that a bunch of other first world countries use 'live' vaccines & they're safe.
I will be lining up for the vaccine like it's hall h on a saturday ;)

I get my yearly flu vaccine as soon as it's available.  For this though, I'm going to wait.  Not because I fear it's efficacy or safety, but because I don't want to be in a Hall H line with a bunch of possibly infected people.  I'll wait a few weeks for others to get it and the chances of getting infected on the way to get a vaccine to go down.

Yes, traditional vaccines are also being developed.  The problem is traditional vaccines take a long time to make.  Like normally 4-5 years.  If they get one out in 12-18 months, that will be a record setter.  So the question is get a synthetic vaccine or wait a year or two longer for a "live" vaccine.

The reason this vaccine is out so quick is that it's synthetic.  I don't remember if it was Moderna, but someone else synthesized their's 48 hours after China published the DNA sequence for covid.  It's a brave new world.  They don't take a covid virus and chop up it's genetic info to make the vaccine, they just print it out using a gene printer.

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Overall, nothing to worry about as the link above says. Unless a virus totally changes overnight, sure, a person can get sick again, but lots of evidence says the coronavirus is not doing that thus far. Also note that some people need extra time to recover after being sick with the virus even when they are still showing some symptoms weeks later.

Hopefully.  That's one opinion.  Unfortunately the science isn't out there to support it.  Here's a warning from someone that's familiar with viruses that can reinfect after recovery.

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Here's a study that shows that only a subset of people that recover from covid have the antibodies that may give them immunity.

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As for the virus changing, it already has.  As of the end of March, there were 8 main strains being tracked.  The strain in the US is different from the strain in Europe which is different from the strain in China.  There are 8 big strains being tracked but there are a whole lot more.

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Luckily in this case, the thing that's being targeted is common to most if not all coronaviruses.  So hopefully the vaccine will work on more than just covid.  It may work for SARS, MARS and maybe even the common cold.  Some of the covid vaccine candidates are old SARS vaccine candidates.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 01:27:58 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline omraged9

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #243 on: May 19, 2020, 08:56:17 PM »
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Work had an all-hands today, first one where they have discussed starting steps for people eventually coming back to work. Thought people might find it interesting.



Are most people here who have to work closely with co-workers or clients/customers/patients concerned about respiratory droplets/aerosols? I've been using the Lysol aerosol sprays sporadically in my room plus wearing my mask of course. I'm wondering if the aerosols are moot or if I should be spraying it a lot more.

Offline omraged9

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #244 on: May 19, 2020, 09:26:41 PM »
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The big news today is that Moderna released a teaser about it's vaccine's phase 1 clinical trial.  It produces antibodies in all participants.  That's great news.  It produces neutralizing antibodies, the ones we need for a vaccine to work, in 8 participants.  That's confusing news.  Did they only test 8 people or did only 8 of the people in the trial produce them?  If they only tested 8 people, why didn't they test them all?  If only 8 people of all participants tested showed neutralizing antibodies, then that's not good.

From what I've read, it takes time to making the neutralizing antibodies. I think their press release stated, "samples are not yet available for remaining participants." Their first phase seemed to really try to figure out how much of a dose they should put in the vaccines and if that dose is safe. I read a blog post on sciencemag that seemed to be optimistic ("so far so good"):

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Overall, the response was similar to people that recovered from covid.  It's still unclear if that's enough for immunity.  There's the recent case of the 14 people on the Roosevelt.  They had covid, they recovered, they tested negative twice and now they are symptomatic again testing positive again.

From the some of the articles I've read the past month, there's suggestions that not everyone's viral shedding progress is the same. It also depends on what parts of the body they're testing from. One of the famous virologists, Christian Drosten, studied this:

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There were a couple of other articles that did suggest that not everyone may produce the proper neutralizing antibodies from a covid infection. So that's probably why that even if someone was tested positive for it earlier and has recovered or if they thought they had covid but hadn't been tested, they shouldn't assume that they're fully immune from future infections until they get their proper antibodies checked.

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The other issue is will people take the vaccine for covid?  It's not looking great.  The anti-vaxxers have been hard at work these last few months.  It's worked.  Polling shows that a third of people will refuse a covid vaccine.  Only half of the population get's a flu vaccine for example.

If some people have a problem with traditional vaccines, I would think they would have a bigger problem with this vaccine.  This is a new approach to vaccinations.  Instead of injecting a dead or weaken virus to elicit an immune response, this is a mRNA vaccine.  The vaccine is a bit of mRNA to have your own cells to make the spike protein to stimulate your immune system.  Some people won't even eat GMO food.  I'm not sure how happy they'll be to have some mRNA injected into them.

There's going to be a lot of people who will refuse a vaccine, regardless if it's mRNA or not (assuming these people even understand what mRNA means). I don't think we can worry about these people right now. I feel we should take it one step at a time. Besides, for those who are anti-synthetic but not anti-vaxxers, there's going to be other vaccines available too. My impression is that we might end up with a handful of choices of vaccines to take.

The mRNA stuff is fascinating, first of its kind. Scientists are hopeful that if this vaccine works, we can use this mRNA tech for making new vaccines for other diseases.

Offline omraged9

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #245 on: May 19, 2020, 09:49:32 PM »
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I get my yearly flu vaccine as soon as it's available.  For this though, I'm going to wait.  Not because I fear it's efficacy or safety, but because I don't want to be in a Hall H line with a bunch of possibly infected people.  I'll wait a few weeks for others to get it and the chances of getting infected on the way to get a vaccine to go down.

Yes, traditional vaccines are also being developed.  The problem is traditional vaccines take a long time to make.  Like normally 4-5 years.  If they get one out in 12-18 months, that will be a record setter.  So the question is get a synthetic vaccine or wait a year or two longer for a "live" vaccine.

It's funny, I don't mind waiting for the vaccine either.  I'd be afraid of ADE myself like with dengue fever vaccines. I'm pretty sure there won't be a choice anyway when the vaccine first becomes available. I'm sure it'll go to frontline health care workers and the elderly/immunocompromised people first.

Just curious, is there a reason why people should be more fearful of a synthetic vaccine vs the traditional live attenuated vaccines? Is it because the mRNA tech is brand new or is it because it's merely synthetic?

Quote
As for the virus changing, it already has.  As of the end of March, there were 8 main strains being tracked.  The strain in the US is different from the strain in Europe which is different from the strain in China.  There are 8 big strains being tracked but there are a whole lot more.

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Great graph. I think it's been said that most of the NY strains were from Europe:

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The CA and WA state strains were most likely from China. The good thing is that all the strains seem fundamentally similar enough for one vaccine.

Offline Mario Wario

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #246 on: May 20, 2020, 10:13:16 PM »
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Hopefully.  That's one opinion.  Unfortunately the science isn't out there to support it.  Here's a warning from someone that's familiar with viruses that can reinfect after recovery.

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Here's a study that shows that only a subset of people that recover from covid have the antibodies that may give them immunity.

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As for the virus changing, it already has.  As of the end of March, there were 8 main strains being tracked.  The strain in the US is different from the strain in Europe which is different from the strain in China.  There are 8 big strains being tracked but there are a whole lot more.

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Luckily in this case, the thing that's being targeted is common to most if not all coronaviruses.  So hopefully the vaccine will work on more than just covid.  It may work for SARS, MARS, and maybe even the common cold.  Some of the covid vaccine candidates are old SARS vaccine candidates.

1. They wouldn’t be saying that if they couldn’t back it up nor if only 1 person said it.

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3.


4. Changes in a virus usually don't indicate anything bad will happen, unless the evidence says so strongly. Btw: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login and You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login and You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login  (I do know what is currently happening in China in fighting the virus before sharing the links; the northeast region of China I am talking about. I will keep tabs on this ongoing situation, which means I will share something new later.)

5. That would be sweet to see if so with the vaccine.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 11:11:36 PM by Mario Wario »
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #247 on: May 21, 2020, 12:14:26 AM »
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1. They wouldn’t be saying that if they couldn’t back it up nor if only 1 person said it.

"They" are explicitly warning people that it's unclear whether recovery will lead to immunity.  That's what some studies have shown as well as the opaque vaccine trial reports.  While most people do produce antibodies, those aren't the antibodies that grant immunity.  Neutralizing antibodies are the ones that are needed.  In the recovered as well as the vaccine trial participants, only a subset of people produce nabs.

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For the other well known coronaviruses, what immunity there is is temporary.  From months to a couple of years for SARS and MERS.  Much less so for the common cold.  That's why people keep getting colds over and over again.  It's not because of mutation.  The spike protein, the thing these antibodies target, stays the same.  It's because the cold is such a mild illness that people don't produce nabs.  Thus there is no or limited immunity.

Offline Mario Wario

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #248 on: May 21, 2020, 12:09:23 PM »
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"They" are explicitly warning people that it's unclear whether recovery will lead to immunity.  That's what some studies have shown as well as the opaque vaccine trial reports.  While most people do produce antibodies, those aren't the antibodies that grant immunity.  Neutralizing antibodies are the ones that are needed.  In the recovered as well as the vaccine trial participants, only a subset of people produce nabs.

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For the other well-known coronaviruses, what immunity there is is temporary.  From months to a couple of years for SARS and MERS.  Much less so for the common cold.  That's why people keep getting colds over and over again.  It's not because of mutation.  The spike protein, the thing these antibodies target, stays the same.  It's because the cold is such a mild illness that people don't produce nabs.  Thus there is no or limited immunity.

1. Welcome to the medical community saying nothing is ever ‘guaranteed‘, even when the ‘optimistic’ evidence says the world should be optimistic.

2. With the WHO, the leaders say “We don’t know what we already don’t know,” or “We better watch out, the virus is coming for us all!” than anything else. The basic information we all already know. They also have backtracked on certain information too, during this outbreak. So, be careful just by going to them only. Keep doing what you did by including other links like that NPR one. Lastly: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login (Up to you on making an opinion on what the Times says in that article.)

3. Like Luke said to Rey in Episode 8: “Breathe. Just breathe.” The world is not fighting a super virus, just an evil, nasty one that we humans can beat. Now let’s be realistic on this matter? Yes! Anything can happen and we need to be careful. Should we think we are doomed for life now? No. Do we need to send Bruce Willis back in time to help save the future? Nope.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 12:16:31 PM by Mario Wario »
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Offline marcia29

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #249 on: May 21, 2020, 12:24:10 PM »
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Do we need to send Bruce Willis back in time to help save the future? Nope.

To quote Randy Quaid in Independence Day.....   "Are you sure?  :P
It is 2024, and I am still asking...where's my flyin' car??!! @fannishmarcia

Offline Mario Wario

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #250 on: May 21, 2020, 01:26:29 PM »
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To quote Randy Quaid in Independence Day.....   "Are you sure?  :P
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #251 on: May 21, 2020, 01:31:06 PM »
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2. With the WHO, the leaders say “We don’t know what we already don’t know,” or “We better watch out, the virus is coming for us all!” than anything else. The basic information we all already know. They also have backtracked on certain information too, during this outbreak. So, be careful just by going to them only. Keep doing what you did by including other links like that NPR one. Lastly: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login (Up to you on making an opinion on what the Times says in that article.)

The WHO is being responsible.  They aren't my only source of information.  Be careful of forming your opinion based only on Twitter and Youtube posts.

So much is unknown right now.  Including whether there will be immunity from a vaccine or recovery.  The funniest comment I saw about that was from a researcher on CNN who said he thought the Moderna teaser release said it was negative when he read it.  He thought they said it didn't work since they said it worked about as well as the recovered.  He was then surprised when the press was so excited that it was a good result.

Here's another example.  The Oxford vaccine results were glowing a few days ago.

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Now on further thought.

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As for who knew when.  The reports are that US intelligence knew and warned the administration about the outbreak last November.  We didn't do anything about it.  But those are just reports.  What's fact is that South Korea, Taiwan and the United States all officially found out at the same time.  South Korea and Taiwan acted and have some of the lowest cases and deaths in the world.  The US did not act until much later and we have the most cases and the most deaths.

Offline Chris

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #252 on: May 21, 2020, 02:47:22 PM »
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1. Welcome to the medical community saying nothing is ever ‘guaranteed‘, even when the ‘optimistic’ evidence says the world should be optimistic.

2. With the WHO, the leaders say “We don’t know what we already don’t know,” or “We better watch out, the virus is coming for us all!” than anything else. The basic information we all already know. They also have backtracked on certain information too, during this outbreak. So, be careful just by going to them only. Keep doing what you did by including other links like that NPR one. Lastly: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login (Up to you on making an opinion on what the Times says in that article.)

3. Like Luke said to Rey in Episode 8: “Breathe. Just breathe.” The world is not fighting a super virus, just an evil, nasty one that we humans can beat. Now let’s be realistic on this matter? Yes! Anything can happen and we need to be careful. Should we think we are doomed for life now? No. Do we need to send Bruce Willis back in time to help save the future? Nope.

I'd be all for John McClane showing up and kicking the virus' butt.

Offline Mario Wario

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #253 on: May 21, 2020, 02:49:18 PM »
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The WHO is being responsible.  They aren't my only source of information.  Be careful about forming your opinion based only on Twitter and Youtube posts.

So much is unknown right now.  Including whether there will be immunity from a vaccine or recovery.  The funniest comment I saw about that was from a researcher on CNN who said he thought the Moderna teaser release said it was negative when he read it.  He thought they said it didn't work since they said it worked about as well as the recovered.  He was then surprised when the press was so excited that it was a good result.

Here's another example.  The Oxford vaccine results were glowing a few days ago.

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Now on further thought.

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As for who knew when.  The reports are that US intelligence knew and warned the administration about the outbreak last November.  We didn't do anything about it.  But those are just reports.  What's fact is that South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States all officially found out at the same time.  South Korea and Taiwan acted and have some of the lowest cases and deaths in the world.  The US did not act until much later and we have the most cases and the most deaths.
Yup, that’s why many should avoid inaccurate information when using Twitter and/or YouTube. The dark part of the web is on a mission to misinform the world, too.

As for the ever-changing daily information, all we can do is this:


And to stay up to date the best we can. The WHO being responsible during this outbreak? Maybe now...but it sure didn’t seem like they were from the start of this outbreak. Regardless, I just want everyone to bring their best when fighting the virus.

Speaking of Taiwan and South Korea, both took matters in their own hands, knowing how close they were to the viral outbreak, and not trusting China too, after looking at past outbreaks. As for the US, things could have turned out better, I won’t argue with you there, although with China silencing those who were trying to alert the rest of the world last winter doesn’t help as well. Europe, for example, would have liked getting some of that warning I’m sure. Overall, I still see more “I” than “we” with China. Shocking, right?

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I'd be all for John McClane showing up and kicking the virus' butt.
Same here!
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 05:24:12 PM by Mario Wario »
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Offline puppy

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #254 on: May 21, 2020, 11:23:27 PM »
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I won’t argue with you there, although with China silencing those who were trying to alert the rest of the world last winter doesn’t help as well. Europe, for example, would have liked getting some of that warning I’m sure. Overall, I still see more “I” than “we” with China. Shocking, right?
Same here!

I will argue this point. It matters not whether China silenced anything. Even when it was obvious how bad this thing was and people were dying on ships and all over Italy, the U.S. government played it down. So, even when obvious, we did nothing. If China had come out with bullhorns ablaring, we would have done nothing. Right now, we know darn well what it can do, and we're rushing to open everything back up. People are protesting, gathering in groups without masks, etc. We should not be blaming China for our own stupidity.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 11:27:20 PM by puppy »