Author Topic: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid  (Read 127682 times)

Offline alyssa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #435 on: December 20, 2020, 04:58:26 AM »
where are the hospital ships?
why isn't one in LA?
« Last Edit: December 20, 2020, 05:46:34 AM by alyssa »
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #436 on: December 20, 2020, 12:28:15 PM »
It could be that the military needs them for itself.  The military hospitals are also having a surge and running out of space.  It also needs a federal response to be used.  Someone in the administration has to authorize it.  The outgoing administration has checked out for the duration.  Golf anyone?

The good and bad news is that we do have some spare capacity in San Diego.  The surge site that got all the press was the San Diego convention center.  That was dismantled but there is another surge site.  It has 200 beds.  Smartly, they kept that one intact just in case.  So that one is ready to go, kind of.  The beds are there, the supplies are there but the staff is not.  That's the problem now, there aren't enough healthcare workers.  In that way, New York was lucky.  They got hit when the rest of the country wasn't so healthcare workers flooded in from around the country.  That can't happen now since everyone is hit and so many healthcare workers are out because they themselves have covid.  So staffing will be a problem.  I think the county has 50 traveling nurses it could use.  Which is not enough.

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #437 on: Today at 05:58:06 AM »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #437 on: December 20, 2020, 01:27:37 PM »
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A new strain of Covid-19 infects over 1,000 people in the UK.
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Well that blew up really quickly.  On Wednesday the UK gov was saying it was OK.  Since then they've had to add another tier to the emergency declaration and now the country is on extra special lockdown.  Today much of Europe has banned travel of people and goods from the UK.  Why not kick off Brexit a few days early?

The reality is that it's probably all too late.  For them to be detecting it now means that people were spreading it at least a couple of weeks ago.  Probably for much longer than that.  It's already been found in Europe.  Just like with the original covid which was already widespread before any measures were taken.  Now we know that covid was already in the US in 2019.  It takes a while for these things to get bad enough for people to take notice.  Just as with the last more contagious variant from Europe, I wouldn't be surprised if it was already in the US too.

Offline FBS

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #438 on: December 21, 2020, 01:38:10 PM »
The UK government were made aware of this new mutation back in September, but did nothing.
It absolutely has spread further afield. Wouldn't surprise me if we start to see many countries now coming forward to say it is active.

Offline Miclpea

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #439 on: December 21, 2020, 02:24:51 PM »
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The UK government were made aware of this new mutation back in September, but did nothing.
It absolutely has spread further afield. Wouldn't surprise me if we start to see many countries now coming forward to say it is active.
Absolutely it has spread!


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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #440 on: December 21, 2020, 06:11:45 PM »
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The UK government were made aware of this new mutation back in September, but did nothing.
It absolutely has spread further afield. Wouldn't surprise me if we start to see many countries now coming forward to say it is active.

They already have.  Off the top of my head I think Italy and Denmark have already detected it there.  It may not be as innocuous as first thought and as still widely reported.  That realization maybe why the UK government did an about face between Weds and Friday.

It's reported in the media to be more infectious.  It's not the first variant to be like that.  Many people don't realize that the strain of covid dominant in the world isn't the one from Wuhan.  That one was relatively mild.  It's a strain that came from Europe that was more infectious.  That one was more infectious because it had more spike proteins but was otherwise the same as the original strain.  This strain maybe more infectious and worst due to other mechanisms.  One theory is that it evolved in people that were given convalescent plasma.  If so, it evolved to avoid one of the defenses we've been able to come up with.

It's already the dominant strain in London and South East England.  I don't see how it's not going to become the dominant strain world wide.  That is unless the South African strain beats it to it.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2020, 08:09:58 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline Andrew Costa Mesa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #441 on: December 22, 2020, 03:21:00 PM »
Pfizer is near a deal with the Trump administration to partially offset an expected shortage of Pfizer coronavirus vaccines between April and June.

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Offline Andrew Costa Mesa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #442 on: December 22, 2020, 09:36:11 PM »
Take it for what it’s worth.  Pfizer claims they can put together a new vaccine that will be effective against the new mutation or new variant in six weeks if necessary.  Right now there is no evidence the new strain is resistant against the current vaccines but they are still monitoring it.
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #443 on: December 23, 2020, 12:39:28 AM »
6 weeks?  Why so long? :)

I don't see why not.  These new vaccines, mrna, are more like computer programming than traditional medicine.  Moderna designed it's vaccine in 2 days.  That was before they had even seen it.  China published the DNA for covid and 2 days later Moderna had chopped out the sequence for the spike protein and designed the vaccine.  It's like someone posting source code and then someone else lifting a function out of it to use in their own program.  There are even services that synthesis DNA/RNA just like there are services that print out a PDF or 3D print a design or print out a snapshot.  Just send them a sequence.

So I don't see why BioNTech couldn't do the same.  Someone publishes the DNA for a new variant, they chop out the new sequence and replace the sequence they are currently using.  There you go, a new vaccine.

The question is whether the regulators will approve it for use without going through clinical trials.  That's what took 10 months.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 12:42:10 AM by chocolateshake »

Offline Andrew Costa Mesa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #444 on: December 24, 2020, 04:04:27 PM »
Remember, “experts believe,” keep your fingers crossed.

Experts believe the current vaccines are effective against the mutations in the U.K. and South Africa.

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Offline Andrew Costa Mesa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #445 on: December 24, 2020, 04:09:36 PM »
A California panel has recommended that essential workers at risk of exposure to the coronavirus at their job such as teachers, child care workers, grocery store clerks, farmworkers, first responders and those 75 and older should be next in line to be vaccinated.  It is estimated that these groups could get the shots as soon as mid-to-late January.  The following tier could consist of seniors 65 to 74 years old with medical conditions or disabilities that place them at high risk of severe illness.  That tier could get vaccinated as soon as February.  The proposal will be sent for approval by Gov. Gavin Newsom within the next week or so.

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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #446 on: December 25, 2020, 12:55:59 AM »
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those 75 and older should be next in line to be vaccinated.

I'm of the opinion that age group should be in 1a, they should be vaccinated now.  Not just the ones in nursing homes but anyone 75 and over.  That's where other countries like the UK have prioritized them.  It makes sense.  They make up 80% of covid deaths.  They should be top priority.

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It is estimated that these groups could get the shots as soon as mid-to-late January.

I think they are still operating under the expectation that 20 million people will be vaccinated by the end of the year.  I don't see that happening.  The first week there were 500,000 vaccinations.  This week it's on track for 1,000,000.  In order to met expectations, 18 million people would have to be vaccinated next week.  That's not going to happen.  I credit the increase this week to the Moderna vaccine that can be sent to many more sites than the BioNTech vaccine which requires specialized freezers.  So many more places have received the Moderna vaccine than the BioNTech one.  But even with that, about 85% of the delivered vaccine is sitting unused.  It turns out the bottleneck is not the production or distribution, it's the jab.  It seems we are following the testing model for vaccination.  It's too slow.  At this rate, it'll be April until the first group finishes their first shot, let alone their second shot.  In order to get a shot into every adult by June, we need 40 million vaccinations a month, not 4 million.  Add in the people coming back the following month for their second shot and that's 80 million vaccinations a month for most of those months.  Even if only half the population is willing to get vaccinated, that's still a whole lot more jabbing than we are doing.  We need volume.

I'm worried about how this process will play out once it's in less controlled spaces then it currently is.  Right now organizations are vaccinating their people so there is structure.  How will it work with the general public?  I don't even know how people will know which group they are in and how they will go about getting a shot.  Will it be like the flu shot?  Will it be like a BF free for all?  That would get messy quick.  Other countries planned for this and it's orderly.  It's like what you see play out in pandemic movies.  The government tells people what group they are in and when to expect their turn.  When the time comes they are told where to go and when to be there.  They've set up vaccination centers to get as many people vaccinated as quickly and efficiently as possible.  I don't see any of that organization here.  Like with testing, it's ad hoc.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2020, 12:58:18 AM by chocolateshake »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #447 on: December 30, 2020, 01:12:14 AM »
The UK is the first country to approve the Oxford Vaccine.  It's the vaccine for the rest of the world.  The BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are for the rich countries.  Too expensive.  The Oxford Vaccine is easy to make, easy to transport, easy to store and cheap.  It works with the existing vaccine infrastructure all over the world.

Offline alyssa

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #448 on: December 30, 2020, 06:32:08 AM »
channel 7 is reporting that sd county has 19% capacity for icu hospital beds. All other counties in the socal block are at zero.

Quote
The county is reporting 19% of its existing ICU beds as available, but San Diego County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher said last week many of those beds lack staffing. The real number of available, staffed beds is likely much lower.
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can we secede from the socal block?
^joking                                                               
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 09:23:10 AM by alyssa »
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Offline Miclpea

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #449 on: December 30, 2020, 06:34:45 AM »
Well, we have at least one confirmed case of the UK variant and possibly two in Colorado. So 2020 is the gift that won’t stop giving!


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