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2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.
The first estimate is in. It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis. That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior. The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis. The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated. It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis. This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick. It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves. Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen. It's just not the attendees that are at risk. It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.
Unfortunately I think this is a new normal. It's climate change. It's only going to get worse. I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer. For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer. It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter. There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling. Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC. San Diego is a semi-desert climate. It used to be anyways. So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night. We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC. The humidity has changed all that. It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night. The AC has to be on in the morning.Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio. The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Unfortunately, I think you're right. I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span. Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite. This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago! Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me. One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter). I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session. In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path. In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).
In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).
Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year.
However, the actual number of counted influenza deaths over that timespan ranged between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths each year.
How ironic. At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact. It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.I echo your sentiments about the change in weather. Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round. In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1. Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Yeah the fires have always been a thing. I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa. That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day! In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind. My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day" :PI can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.
Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year. Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.
But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?
Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections. Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same. That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.