Author Topic: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid  (Read 127900 times)

Offline perc2100

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #390 on: December 03, 2020, 11:49:54 AM »
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Well darn...looks like I would need to pay for access to this little gem.  Oh well, someone will come up with this, for free...I hope. I know it is just a guess, anyway.  :(
Lame; seems like it'd be free (though I have a free subscription as a teacher).
FWIW the only info necessary is:
* age
* county you live in
* do you work one of these jobs: Health care worker; Essential worker; First responder; Teacher; None of these
* y/n if you are considered high risk

If you want to PM me those answers I can plug it in for you

These are just 'guesstimates' based on what different states have released as far as how many vaccines they'll be receiving initially, stats reported county-wide regarding jobs, etc.

This is the info I received as a mid-40's teacher in San Diego w/no high risk issues
Quote
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 135.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to California, we think you’re behind 14.3 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in San Diego County, you’re behind 1.1 million others.

If the line in California was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing:

Same states if I were high risk:
Quote
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 23.0 million people across the United States.

When it comes to California, we think you’re behind 2.6 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in San Diego County, you’re behind 210,600 others.

If the line in California was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing
(they have a cute graphic to represent the lines of people in front of me)

The article ends with:
Quote
1.7M healthcare workers642k in nursing homes201k first responders9.8M with health risksYou868k other elderly1.1M essential workers686k teachers98k homeless146k prisoners5.5M young adults8.9M children1.4M other essential workers8.2M others

How quickly we’ll move through this line is still an open question. While millions of health care workers in the country could be vaccinated this month, the most prominent vaccine candidates require an ultracold distribution chain that can’t yet reach every American. States also need to procure even more personal protective equipment and set up socially distanced mass-vaccination sites amid a pandemic that could slow everything down.

“It’s incredible that we have vaccines with high levels of initial efficacy in such a short period of time,” said Dr. Sema Sgaier, a co-founder and the executive director of the Surgo Foundation.

“But the vaccine is not going to be a silver bullet for a while,” she added.

The order outlined above is one possibility, combining proposals by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alongside a fuller proposal by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The final order is not yet determined and depends on successful vaccines being adequately tested for every group. States could still set their priorities, but they will most likely follow the final C.D.C. recommendations.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2020, 11:57:38 AM by perc2100 »

Offline perc2100

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #391 on: December 03, 2020, 11:51:22 AM »
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hmmm...

I'm surprised I'm in front of teachers.

Anyway as a healthy individual, I'm more than willing to let anyone on the forum get in front of me.   :)

My wife who's currently a work-from-home education Admin is about 110 million 'in front of' me because of her 'high risk' situation.  Heck, I might be able to slide into that category depending on how much weight I've put on during the pandemic (obesity counts!).  Honestly, I have zero problems letting those in high-risk essential jobs, those whose health is worse than mine (which is most), elderly, etc. get a vaccine before me.  IDK how long I'll be teaching remotely (at least until mid-January), and teaching HS I feel relatively OK about being able to socially distance myself from students & other faculty if/when the bulk of students return to campus/my classroom (we technically have two large rooms as part of the performing arts department).  We've done some small-group playing outside over the last month and a half (voluntarily, of course) and I don't foresee us playing indoors at any point this school year: meaning I think I can manage my classrooms relatively safely.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2020, 12:04:39 PM by perc2100 »

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #392 on: Today at 01:18:13 AM »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #392 on: December 03, 2020, 12:29:02 PM »
People should keep on the ball in terms of keeping safe.  With pandemic fatigue and the good news about vaccines, it's easy enough to let up thinking it's over.  This won't be over for at least months.  The numbers public health officials were using to try to scare us into compliance are here.  We are basically at 200,000 new cases a day and 3,000 deaths a day.  The Thanksgiving spike isn't even reflected in those numbers yet.  This is no time to ease up on precautions.

Here in San Diego, one of the largest hospital groups said yesterday that their covid hospitalizations are up 600% in a month.  We are on self imposed lockdown again.  It's not like we really ever let up that much but we are back into April-May lockdown mode.  I took the last couple of weeks to stock up on supplies.  Getting a smog test for the car was my last outing a few days ago.  I don't plan on leaving the house at all for at least a month.  Longer if necessary.

Offline MickeyJack

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Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #393 on: December 03, 2020, 12:42:33 PM »
I expect where I am in Minnesota, my wait for a vaccine may, emphasis on “may,” be shorter (I live 38 miles from Mayo). Selfishly thinking about SDCC, won’t everything that pertains to the event come down to what is happening in California? I mean the rest of the country can have things under control (or not), but won’t it be whether the powers that be (the Governor?) deems it safe for a gathering as large as ours? Asking for 120,000 friends.


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« Last Edit: December 03, 2020, 01:27:31 PM by mickeyjack3 »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #394 on: December 03, 2020, 12:54:35 PM »
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Well darn...looks like I would need to pay for access to this little gem.  Oh well, someone will come up with this, for free...I hope. I know it is just a guess, anyway.  :(

You don't need to pay to access it.  That banner on the bottom is there if you want to access the paid areas of the NYT.  This calculator is free.  Ignore that banner.

I don't put much faith into this calculator.  Age is a big risk factor for severe illness.  This calculator places children and young adults ahead in line for the vaccine over the middle aged.  That doesn't make sense.  Also, the trails for the vaccines didn't include teens or younger children.  Those trials just started.  So approval for use in those age groups will come later.  There isn't any criteria for them to be considered right now.  So how can this calculator factor in those age groups?
« Last Edit: December 03, 2020, 01:42:23 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline perc2100

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #395 on: December 03, 2020, 02:05:03 PM »
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People should keep on the ball in terms of keeping safe.  With pandemic fatigue and the good news about vaccines, it's easy enough to let up thinking it's over.  This won't be over for at least months.  The numbers public health officials were using to try to scare us into compliance are here.  We are basically at 200,000 new cases a day and 3,000 deaths a day.  The Thanksgiving spike isn't even reflected in those numbers yet.  This is no time to ease up on precautions.

Here in San Diego, one of the largest hospital groups said yesterday that their covid hospitalizations are up 600% in a month.  We are on self imposed lockdown again.  It's not like we really ever let up that much but we are back into April-May lockdown mode.  I took the last couple of weeks to stock up on supplies.  Getting a smog test for the car was my last outing a few days ago.  I don't plan on leaving the house at all for at least a month.  Longer if necessary.
ABSOLUTELY!
Smogging my car (in San Diego) over the summer is what I'm confident got me sick in the first place over the summer.  I don't think it was COVID, as I never had a fever or cough, but I was violently ill and couldn't hold food/water down for 3+ days and was miserable (day 1 was July 4th).  I don't think I've been in a grocery store since early summer, and I've been fortunate enough to get all my groceries delivered for the most part.  The only places I've been in-person are work (I'm a HS teacher, teaching remotely, but I go into my classrooms as I teach music and I'm certain my condo neighbors would not want to hear me drumming starting at 8am every day  :P ) and fairly regular visits to our pharmacy for prescription meds.  I haven't eaten restaurant food since early March, no haircut since mid-February, no movies in theaters since mid-March: I'm fatigued, for sure, but if option B is "get COVID" I'll take fatigue every time.

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Selfishly thinking about SDCC, won’t everything that pertains to the event come down to what is happening in California? I mean the rest of the country can have things under control (or not), but won’t it be whether the powers that be (the Governor?) deems it safe for a gathering as large as ours? Asking for 120,000 friends.
Definitely, Mickeyjack3.  Currently restrictions on large gatherings in CA are very intense, with no amusement parks allowed open to the public until the pandemic is well under control (which we haven't seen since everything closed in March).  In fact, our CA Governor just announced today we're going into a more restrictive general shut-down: nail & hair salons closing, restaurants have to go take-out only again, heavy restrictions on customer numbers in 'essential' businesses, etc.  He stressed that the vaccine is on its way, and will start going out by Christmas (in pretty limited-sounding numbers initially).  It's hard to say what will happen in the summer, especially with COVID numbers spring WITHOUT the Thanksgiving spike in the calculations yet + hospital ICUs filling up at/near capacity.  But I think post-New Year's, once the Xmas numbers spike and then start calming down, and once the vaccine starts going in wider distribution, we'll hopefully have a clearer picture of when things can return to normal.  National experts like Dr. Fauci have estimated 'mid/late-summer we should be returning to relative normal' which COULD see SDCCI as the first major event OK'ed in CA.
Hard to say now, but I'm oddly optimistic about spring/summer, even with doom & gloom current news

Offline perc2100

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #396 on: December 03, 2020, 04:50:58 PM »
Bummer news: Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login
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When Pfizer Inc. said last month it expects to ship half the Covid-19 vaccines it had originally planned for this year, the decision highlighted the challenges drug makers face in rapidly building supply chains to meet the high demand.

“Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected,” a company spokeswoman said. “And it’s important to highlight that the outcome of the clinical trial was somewhat later than the initial projection.”
Pfizer and Germany-based partner BioNTech SE had hoped to roll out 100 million vaccines world-wide by the end of this year, a plan that has now been reduced to 50 million.
Pfizer still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021 as originally planned.

Offline MickeyJack

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Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #397 on: December 03, 2020, 05:33:06 PM »
It’s my understanding that Pfizer knew this months ago. It changes nothing in terms of what they announced about the number of doses they intend to provide and when. At worst, aren’t they just saying we hoped to produce even more, but because of an abundance of caution this is what we decided weeks ago we would do? It’s not really a change from the previously announced plan. It makes for a great headline for news outlets though and unnecessarily makes people who are in dire need of hope more anxious, thinking that the number of doses were going to be cut in half. To be clear, I’m not finding fault with you perc2100 but with the way some news organizations reported it.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2020, 05:41:03 PM by mickeyjack3 »

Offline perc2100

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #398 on: December 03, 2020, 05:45:37 PM »
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It’s my understanding that Pfizer knew this months ago. It changes nothing in terms of what they announced about the number of doses they intend to provide and when. At worst, aren’t they just saying we hoped to produce even more, but because of an abundance of caution this is what we decided weeks ago we would do? It’s not really a change from the previously announced plan. It makes for a great headline for news outlets though and unnecessarily makes people who are in dire need of hope more anxious, thinking that the number of doses were going to be cut in half. To be clear, I’m not finding fault with you perc2100 but with the way some news organizations reported it.
You're right; I was thinking they had originally announced the 100 million and then had to announce only half that now.  I went back and re-read their initial release a month and change ago and it does indeed say they'll ship the 50 million.  This does seem like at best an article discussing initial plans, and at worst a poorly-written article that should at least clarify that this changes absolutely nothing about their announced plans.

Thanks for pointing this out and bringing more clarity to an article than professional news writers/reporters did!!

Offline MickeyJack

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #399 on: December 03, 2020, 05:58:53 PM »
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You're right; I was thinking they had originally announced the 100 million and then had to announce only half that now.  I went back and re-read their initial release a month and change ago and it does indeed say they'll ship the 50 million.  This does seem like at best an article discussing initial plans, and at worst a poorly-written article that should at least clarify that this changes absolutely nothing about their announced plans.

Thanks for pointing this out and bringing more clarity to an article than professional news writers/reporters did!!

Yes, it's easily misconstrued, and many people were/are dismayed. It even made the stock market hiccup a little, but it still stayed, in the end, positive for the most part. More than one news organization didn't make it clear. I'm not usually a media basher, but I think this comes off as irresponsible headline-grabbing.

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #400 on: December 04, 2020, 12:59:30 PM »
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It's my understanding that Pfizer knew this months ago. It changes nothing in terms of what they announced about the number of doses they intend to provide and when. At worst, aren't they just saying we hoped to produce even more, but because of an abundance of caution this is what we decided weeks ago we would do? It's not really a change from the previously announced plan. It makes for a great headline for news outlets though and unnecessarily makes people who are in dire need of hope more anxious, thinking that the number of doses were going to be cut in half. To be clear, I'm not finding fault with you perc2100 but with the way some news organizations reported it.

It's more complicated than that.  The plan until a month ago was to supply 100 million doses by the end of the year.  That's the agreement they have with the US government.  They came out a month ago and said that would be reduced to 50 million doses but they wouldn't say why.  That was the point of yesterday's WSJ article, the reason why.  They can't get the materials to produce the 100 million doses.

So there is a shortfall of 50 million doses from Pfizer that the government was counting on.  But that has been known for a month.  The government ordered doses from many vaccine makers with no proof that it would work.  The reasoning is that it's better to have the doses ready to go if the vaccines do work than have to wait.  Worst case, we only waste money and not lives.  So the government purchased 100 million doses from Pfizer for delivery by the end of the year.  Pfizer will only be able to deliver half of that.  I'm sure they did everything they could.  They are motivated if by nothing else then they will not be paid until they deliver all 100 million doses.

Also when looking at the numbers, that's their production for the entire world ex China, not just the US.  Some of those doses have already been delivered to the UK for vaccinations next week.

The question is whether this was a startup issue that has been resolved or whether it will be a continuing constraint. Moderna's vaccine is basically the same so I assume they will be drawing the same materials.  China is also producing the BioNTech vaccine so they will be drawing the same materials.  Is there enough to go around?
« Last Edit: December 04, 2020, 01:10:04 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline MickeyJack

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #401 on: December 04, 2020, 04:55:13 PM »
Thanks for the further clarification.


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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #402 on: December 05, 2020, 10:48:59 AM »
The vaccine shortfall looks to be worse than the reduction from 100 million to 50 million doses from Pfizer by the end of the year.  Only 6.4 million doses will be delivered through the middle of December.  They should have been in full production for at least a couple of months.  That was the whole point of the government preordering the vaccine before it was proven to work.  If they have only been able to make 6.4 million doses to date, how will they be able to make another 43 million doses by the end of the month?

The CDC has been telling states how much vaccine to expect.  It's well short of expectations.  I think Maine was expecting 30,000 or so doses.  They will be getting about 12,000.  California was hoping for 2,000,000 doses.  We will be getting about 400,000.

There's also the matter of the cost to administer the vaccine.  The impression the administration is giving off is that Operation Warp Speed has it all taken care of.  The states say otherwise.  It's going to cost states billions to administer the vaccine.  Money some states don't have.

I was thinking I would call a house doc to come vaccinate my parents at home.  Running the gauntlet of the unmasked to get vaccinated doesn't seem like a good idea.  It would be ironic to get infected while getting vaccinated.  So I was thinking house call until I watched the news last night.  Drive through vaccinations.  It was obvious.  Some hospitals are already running drills to work out the procedures for drive through vaccination.

Southern California is expected to go back into full lockdown by Sunday night/Monday morning.  San Francisco already has.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2020, 12:50:59 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline NCDS

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #403 on: December 05, 2020, 02:10:46 PM »
Checking in - status alive
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Offline janray

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Re: Reports & check ins in the age of Covid
« Reply #404 on: December 06, 2020, 09:09:05 AM »
I got my flu shot this year at Kaiser's drive through.  It was very well organized and I will probably use this option from now on.
I was hoping for a drive through option for the coronavirus vaccination but I am unclear how many locations there will be that have the vaccine.
If locations are limited, a drive through might not be feasible.