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Comic-Con International => CCI General Discussion => Topic started by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:08:45 PM

Title: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:08:45 PM
Now that SDCC 2020 is in the rearview mirror, it's your time to sound off about the future.  What say you? (also be sure to vote in the poll above ^^^)

This is a really tough one for me, personally.  After already losing one con, a second consecutive would be devastating for a multitude of reasons.

As of right now, I feel we will not be at a place in 7-8 months where CCI will feel comfortable moving forward with even a scaled-back in-person version of a Comic-Con in 2021.  And for that reason I will vote no, as hard is that is to do.

I hope our society proves me right and makes the necessary lifestyle changes to eradicate this pandemic -- I'm just uncertain it will happen in time for CCI to make the call on 2021.  Fingers crossed!

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 27, 2020, 04:12:37 PM
SDCC 2021 or bust.

Edit: to clarify I'm for 2021

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on July 27, 2020, 04:26:58 PM
Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 27, 2020, 04:27:58 PM
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Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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I have not heard of CCI’s plans for that, as of yet.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: rickythump on July 27, 2020, 04:51:37 PM
Looking at my previous post from March 13th about speculation for the upcoming 2020 con;

Quote
"I say that we'll have bigger problems at hand because if four months passes and we are still in a place where large event gatherings are banned - then we will be in the darkest timeline and attending SDCC will be a low priority for everyone due to living through an economic depression at that scale. I mean... things could always get worse. And without getting overly political, it seems like this administration is incredibly lacking (to say the least), and that its likely that things do get worse in the coming weeks before they will get better.

But its important to remember, that if we are projecting a timeline where SDCC is canceled - then what does the American life look like that that point? Millions of people in travel and service industry jobs will likely be out of work, the economy will have collapsed, and (at the risk of sounding like a doomer) we might be living in some state of anarchy."

 ??? I guess I should've knocked on wood.

I think this Winter is going to be rough; I think if we get some sort of rapid testing in order by the end of the year, we'll be okay for 2021, but it will still be a very different con.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on July 27, 2020, 05:23:11 PM
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Will there be a sale refunded tickets in the fall?


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From https://www.comic-con.org/cci/badge-info (bold = mine)

Quote
RETURNING ATTENDEES

Due to the option of allowing Comic-Con 2020 badge holders to transfer their badges to Comic-Con 2021, there will be no Returning Registration for Comic-Con 2021. Depending on the number of refund requests received, there may be reduced inventory for sale in the fall of 2020.

FIRST-TIME ATTENDEES

To participate in any badge sale, you must have a valid and confirmed Comic-Con Member ID. Click here to sign up for one today! The Member ID system will close - without notice - in advance of any badge sale event. Everyone you wish to purchase badges for must have their own valid and confirmed Member ID account.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 27, 2020, 05:29:21 PM
As I've been saying since this started, the question is not whether we would have a comic-con in 2020 it's whether there will be one in 2021?  Right now, I don't think we will.  If we got our act together then maybe we could have.  We didn't.  The way we didn't was in a very bad way.  Roughly 30-40% of the population thinks covid is media hype.  They refuse to wear masks.  So even if we get a viable vaccine, by current polling, roughly half the population will refuse to take it.  That simply won't allow there to be large gatherings.

We had all the tools we needed to get the same effect as a vaccine all along.  We haven't used them effectively, why would it be any different with a vaccine?  As the saying goes, vaccines don't save lives vaccinations do.  A vaccine is not very useful if people aren't willing to be vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sessionka on July 27, 2020, 05:58:47 PM
I'm voting yes.

I think there will be a vaccine by then.

Those that take it don't have to worry about those that don't.  If you take it, you'll be protected.  If you don't, you're taking responsibility for your decisions.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: tk415650 on July 27, 2020, 06:43:38 PM
 I will vote 'No' based on what the trends are right at this moment and the fact that there is little to no help or leadership coming from Federal Government.

'IF' there is an administration change in January 2021 in this country and the government is willing and able to administer a national testing and contact tracing strategy AND there is universal healthcare available to everyone in this country then we could talk about the possibility of Comic-con 2021.  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on July 27, 2020, 07:31:47 PM
First of all, I don't think we'll see a badge sale at all for 2021.  I don't think they'll want to deal with refunds should that be necessary, and even if it isn't necessary they'll want fewer people trying to get into panels and on the floor.

That said, at this point I seriously doubt we'll see SDCC in 2021.  If we have a vaccine it will take a while to get it to everyone, and it sounds like people will need multiple doses.  I'm afraid concerts and conventions and packed sporting events won't happen for quite a while.  I really hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 27, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
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Those that take it don't have to worry about those that don't.  If you take it, you'll be protected.

If only that was the case.  Rarely do vaccines work that well.  There has never been a vaccine that's been 100% effective.  The closest is the measles vaccine at 97%.  Even with that, it takes about a 90% vaccination rate to prevent outbreaks.  90% of the population has to take a vaccine that 97% effective to control measles.

Unless there is a miracle, we will not get that with a covid vaccine.  Flu vaccines are about 40-60% effective and the bar that's been set by the government for the covid vaccine is 50% effective.  Hopefully it'll be higher than that and clock in at 70-80%.  At that level of effectiveness we would need a 95-100% vaccination rate to control covid.  Pretty much everyone would have to be vaccinated.  We will be lucky to get half the population to take it.

Vaccines aren't about the individual, they are about the population as a whole.  Since they aren't 100% effective, they are a tool towards herd immunity.  By limiting where the virus can go and thus the infection rate, the virus can be contained and ideally eliminated.  Many people that get a flu vaccine still get the flu.  That's because it's not 100% effective and only about half the population gets vaccinated thus the virus is prevalent.

Even taken at an individual level, at 70% effectiveness, how protected would you really be?  If there was a 30% chance that you would get run over walking across the street, how often would you walk across the street?
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 27, 2020, 08:25:56 PM
As much as I want SDCC to come back in 2021, I don't think it will either. Large indoor events will be the very last thing to come back. Even places that seem to have coronavirus under control still don't have everything back yet. We can't shelter-in-place our way back to SDCC, it will take an effective vaccine, or treatments that greatly reduce the spread and/or severity of this, or until this thing burns through enough of the population until there's no one left to infect (which seems like a real possibility at the rate we're going...  ::) )

Here is what baseball stadiums look like in South Korea: https://time.com/5871901/south-korea-baseball-coronavirus/
Taiwan is doing a little better, with a recent 10,000 fan game. But 10,000 isn't going to work for SDCC: https://focustaiwan.tw/sports/202007110017

Also, CCI (and other organizations) already had to cancel nearly fully planned events without much notice, costing them a ton of time and money. I don't think that they'd want to risk that again, so I don't see a point in starting to plan for in-person 2021 until they're sure that we're in the clear. Which means that even if we get a vaccine in June 2021, we won't get a SDCC in July.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: YouThinkMeMad on July 28, 2020, 05:25:31 AM
I voted Yes because I just need to try and be positive about something when everything else is a dumpster fire.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Cut That Meat on July 28, 2020, 10:46:23 AM
Armed with what I know right now, I voted no. The rest of 2020 is already more or less a write-off here in terms of large gatherings already being cancelled/postponed, no fans at sporting events, concert tour delays, etc.

CCI cancelled on April 17 this year. Obviously there's still a whole lot that could change between now and April 17, 2021, but assuming this is around the latest possible day they could make a decision for next year - and my guess is they'd consider making the call much earlier the second time around - I unfortunately am hard-pressed to see it happening if I was making a wager today.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Godolphin on July 28, 2020, 11:21:16 AM
They just canceled CES 2021, I doubt any big conventions in 2021, but I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: YouThinkMeMad on July 28, 2020, 11:27:34 AM
I'm curious if they'd roll badges over again or just refund everyone. Can't keep rolling them forever  :-X
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 28, 2020, 12:09:13 PM
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They just canceled CES 2021

Yikes, the first truly big convention cancelation for 2021.

With a similar 5 1/5 month lead time, we would theoretically know SDCC 2021's fate by early February.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: rickythump on July 28, 2020, 12:25:03 PM
I think if 2021 is cancelled, it'll be a mass refund with no option of rollover and 2022 will be a completely new sale with a drastically reduced number of badges. I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route regardless of getting a green light to have the convention next year - I don't expect attendance to be what it was in previous years anytime into the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 28, 2020, 12:52:54 PM
I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books.  Especially since they don't know what form any future convention will take and thus they don't know how much it will cost.  Say it costs $100/per person per day to put on the convention in 2021 due to the added cost of new measures and lower attendance, how can they honor a badge they sold for $69?  There's too much that's unknown to commit to that.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 28, 2020, 01:25:44 PM
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I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books. 


But that liability might be exactly why they rolled it over... if the money was already spent on some level they simply didn't have the cash to process that many returns.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 28, 2020, 01:38:19 PM
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But that liability might be exactly why they rolled it over... if the money was already spent on some level they simply didn't have the cash to process that many returns.

I think they did.  According to reporting, the reason the official cancellation took so long was that they needed the time to get released from contracts without penalties.  From the convention center, from hotels, from whoever.

Also it's been reported that CCI saved up money just for this possibility.  So they would have the money to ride out an unforeseen cancellation.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 28, 2020, 03:04:59 PM
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I'm curious if they'd roll badges over again or just refund everyone. Can't keep rolling them forever  :-X

While I agree...for myself, I'd personally be okay with them rolling them over every year until it comes back.

ETA: Rolling things over until at least 2022 is feasible. Star Wars Celebration got pushed to 2022 and many people chose to roll over. The difference is they have no 2021, but it is showing that there are people who don't mind their paid bages being rolled over until 2022.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 28, 2020, 04:44:42 PM
Can Comic-Con require proof of vaccination as a requirement for attendance?  If so, and IF there is a viable vaccine by the end of the year, I vote yes.  But I think Wondercon in March is unlikely and losing three shows will really hurt CCI financially.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: NCDS on July 28, 2020, 06:52:10 PM
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They just canceled CES 2021, I doubt any big conventions in 2021, but I hope I am wrong.

Take back take it back

(https://media.sciencephoto.com/image/f0121453/800wm/F0121453-Girl_with_her_hands_over_her_ears.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: alyssa on July 28, 2020, 07:03:53 PM
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I think they did.  According to reporting, the reason the official cancellation took so long was that they needed the time to get released from contracts without penalties.  From the convention center, from hotels, from whoever.

Also it's been reported that CCI saved up money just for this possibility.  So they would have the money to ride out an unforeseen cancellation.

i think i remember cci saying, the money they would have collected in 2020 would pay for 2022 con. It follows that they had ~ two years for an in-person con (since most everyone rolled over) AND an extra year of interest.
Likely that extra interest money has been spent on this years @HOME con
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 28, 2020, 07:21:25 PM
I’m skeptical too unfortunately. I tried to be hopeful but as others stated, it’s a dumpster fire here. I read health experts don’t expect a vaccine available and things going back to (somewhat) normal until the last quarter of 2021. But as stated millions won’t take the vaccine so I don’t even know.

It was good while it lasted anyway?

I don’t know if CCI can afford to miss another year either especially with the museum
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 28, 2020, 07:25:10 PM
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I was surprised that CCI rolled over this year's badges.  IMO, it didn't make sense for them to have that liability on the books.  Especially since they don't know what form any future convention will take and thus they don't know how much it will cost.  Say it costs $100/per person per day to put on the convention in 2021 due to the added cost of new measures and lower attendance, how can they honor a badge they sold for $69?  There's too much that's unknown to commit to that.

It was earlier on when things didn’t look as bad? Now all the huge cases are in the South and all over. Before it seemed as shutting down some areas would help contain it. Before all the protests and stuff...they were probably more hopeful there would be a next year.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on July 29, 2020, 04:41:24 PM
Deep (depressed) breath...

This is a tough one.  It's pretty clear in the United States that our current Federal Government is worthless, has no national plan, and is leaving it up to states (and politics) to decide how to handle things.  This will go on until at least January, and I honestly don't see USA getting out of "Wave 1" anytime before then.  It's so frustrating to know that beating this back, even w/out a vaccine, is incredibly doable: just see New Zealand completely beat it down to 0 new cases thanks to aggressive shutdowns & government financial assistance to weather the storm.  _IF_ US elects a new POTUS and _IF_ that POTUS enacts a more aggressive policy Day 1 (or, to be blunt, any policy which would be better than the lack-of Federal national policy we currently have), then _maybe_ things could be OK by next July.

To be super blunt, America has proven to be a selfish, entitled, incredibly misguided nation of people (or, really, at least half of the political persuasion).  We have a political party (ruling the Senate & POTUS) that scoffs at science and experts, thinks wearing a mask in a pandemic is tyranny, and just doesn't seem to care about the rest of the people in the country.  Even with a strong Federal plan enacted in January, I'm worried the opposition party would still rebel hard. 
BUT, it's my sincere hope that with a POTUS that isn't a raving lunatic, one that speaks with empathy and understanding and compassion, can speak to the majority of the country and help change the culture enough.  I'm not voting at this time, partly because I'm in a dark place mood-wise, partly because I honestly have no idea at this time.  Regardless of what I say above, I am optimistic for 2021 (I feel like I have to be...)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 29, 2020, 04:43:32 PM
This thread is becoming way too political.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:00:20 PM
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This thread is becoming way too political.

I created the post at the risk of it potentially becoming that, but admittedly, the issues affecting the status of SDCC 2021 are somewhat political, whether we like it or not.

That said, this is certainly not the place to hold a Biden vs. Trump vs. whomever else debate :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: SynXack on July 29, 2020, 05:02:26 PM
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I created the post at the risk of it potentially becoming that, but admittedly, the issues affecting the status of SDCC 2021 are somewhat political, whether we like it or not.

That said, this is certainly not the place to hold a Biden vs. Trump vs. whomever else debate :)
I agree. But I think: "To be super blunt, America has proven to be a selfish, entitled, incredibly misguided nation of people (or, really, at least half of the political persuasion)."  is taking it too far. Those are just personal attacks.

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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 29, 2020, 05:03:49 PM
I mean the country politicized everything about the pandemic, so any discussion about the how the pandemic will impact future events will necessarily involve politics.  :-(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 05:09:22 PM
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_IF_ US elects a new POTUS and _IF_ that POTUS enacts a more aggressive policy Day 1 (or, to be blunt, any policy which would be better than the lack-of Federal national policy we currently have), then _maybe_ things could be OK by next July.

It's too late.  The current administration has politicized the pandemic.  It didn't need to be that way.  It shouldn't be that way.  It is that way.  For 30-40% of the population refusing to wear masks and thinking of covid as just the sniffles is now part of their identity.  That's not going to change.  A different POTUS telling them to wear masks will just make them dig their heels in more.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on July 29, 2020, 05:15:13 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/bleak-new-forecast-for-conventions-prompts-mission-bay-hotels-to-lobby-san-diego-for-financial-relief/ar-BB17lnpw (bold = mine)

Quote
Lingering COVID-19 restrictions are damaging San Diego’s tourism industry, prompting a group of Mission Bay hotels and other businesses to lobby city officials Wednesday for rent deferrals and other relief. The relief requests come on the heels of a new study showing San Diego’s normally robust convention business won’t fully revive until spring or summer 2021 -- at the earliest.

The study, conducted by consulting firm Tourism Economics, dashes previous hopes that conventions would return to San Diego this fall or early next year.


"Major markets are coming to grips with the prospects that virus-related restrictions will prevent many medium and large group meetings through the fourth quarter of 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021," said Colleen Anderson, executive director of the San Diego Tourism Marketing District.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:20:55 PM
@AzT thanks for sharing.

I do wonder if holding a potential SDCC 2021 in the fall or winter is an option that CCI is considering.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 05:25:54 PM
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@AzT (https://www.friendsofcc.com/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=2163) thanks for sharing.

I do wonder if holding a potential SDCC 2021 in the fall or winter is an option that CCI is considering.

Considering that covid is expected to seasonally spike like other respiratory illnesses, if covid is the concern, it would be worse to hold it in the fall or winter.  If covid is too widespread in the summer to hold SDCC, it's not going to be better to hold it in the winter.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on July 29, 2020, 05:28:16 PM
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Considering that covid is expected to seasonally spike like other respiratory illnesses, if covid is the concern, it would be worse to hold it in the fall or winter.  If covid is too widespread in the summer to hold SDCC, it's not going to be better to hold it in the winter.

On the contrary, it’s been reported that Covid-19 is not seasonal:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069111
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 29, 2020, 06:15:55 PM
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On the contrary, it’s been reported that Covid-19 is not seasonal:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1069111

Respiratory illnesses are seasonal.  Just not for the reason people think they are.  That warning from the WHO was to dispel that incorrect belief.  People think that respiratory illnesses wane in the summer because the weather is warmer and thus the virus doesn't survive as long. That "when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away".  That is not the case.  That has never been the case.  As we discussed earlier in another thread, the virus doesn't do worse if the temperature outside is closer to the temperature of the host that it thrives in.

The reason that respiratory illnesses are seasonal is not the effect of the weather on the virus, it's the effect of the weather on people.  People tend to stay indoors more when it's colder.  Respiratory illnesses are much more infectious indoors as oppose to outdoors.  People's noses tend to run when the temperature is cooler.  Thus people tend to touch their virus smeared hands on their noses more in the winter then in the summer.  It's people's behavior in the winter that makes respiratory illnesses seasonal.

That WHO warning you posted says that.  It says that the the virus itself is not effected by the weather.

"The COVID-19 virus is likely not impacted by the changing seasons "

It says it's people's behavior that effects transmission rates.

“What is affecting the transmission is mass gatherings, it’s people coming together, and people not social distancing, not taking the precautions to ensure they are not in close contact.”

Close contact happens more in the winter.  In temperate zones where there aren't really seasons, there is no difference in occurrence between summer and winter.  Since the weather and thus people's behavior is always the same.

Here are a couple of articles that talks about seasonality of respiratory illnesses.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/sick-in-rainy-weather-reasons
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-we-get-the-flu-mos/

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on July 29, 2020, 06:37:59 PM
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This thread is becoming way too political.

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Science shouldn’t be political. IF Con is held in person next year, it’ll probably look very different.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on July 31, 2020, 11:36:05 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if SDCC21 is more like 60% - 70% the size it normally is.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on July 31, 2020, 11:39:01 AM
Except they probably had a ticket rollover rate of over 90%.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on July 31, 2020, 11:44:22 AM
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Except they probably had a ticket rollover rate of over 90%.
I'd love to know what that number really is.  While all of us here are so involved in SDCC that the large majority probably rolled them over, I'd love to see numbers from CCI that shows those details.

Oh, wait, CCI doesn't show those numbers :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on July 31, 2020, 12:42:20 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised if SDCC21 is more like 60% - 70% the size it normally is.

Which highlights one of the issues I brought up about rolling it over.  Whether it's 100% or 60%, many of SDCCs costs are fixed.  So it costs them about the same to put it on.  At 60% the attendance they planned for when they priced the badges, the money they brought in probably wouldn't cover the costs of putting it on.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: hikanteki on July 31, 2020, 06:46:13 PM
I don’t think they can do a 60% SDCC if the goal is to keep distance between attendees. That’s not going to solve anything. More likely, we just plain aren’t getting it back until we find a way to get big crowds back.

That said, if they were allowed to go ahead next year BUT demand dropped so much by next year that they only get 60% attendance (unlikely, since as of last year demand for tickets exceeded capacity by at least 10x based on estimates...but hypothetical) I would expect them to probably go ahead with it because I think they’d lose less money than if they canceled it altogether again.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 08, 2020, 12:33:40 PM
Let's see how the Sturgis experiment goes.  If that works out, maybe there can be a comic-con 2021.  A different kind of comic-con but still a comic-con.  Instead of holding it indoors at the convention center, hold it outdoors at Petco.  Transmission outdoors is lower than it is indoors.  There have been other convention like events at Petco.  What they do is segment the seating into separate panel rooms.  The field itself can be an exhibit hall or a Hall H substitute.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on August 08, 2020, 08:20:23 PM
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Let's see how the Sturgis experiment goes.  If that works out, maybe there can be a comic-con 2021.  A different kind of comic-con but still a comic-con.  Instead of holding it indoors at the convention center, hold it outdoors at Petco.  Transmission outdoors is lower than it is indoors.  There have been other convention like events at Petco.  What they do is segment the seating into separate panel rooms.  The field itself can be an exhibit hall or a Hall H substitute.
This $#!7 scares me...I attended the Sturgis rally and stayed and the Chip and I can tell you firsthand that there's no sort of "social distancing space" whatsoever. Yes it's a huge campground and yes there's all sorts of various things that keep people in different areas, but it is literally wall-to-wall packed w/people and bikes.  The concerts are standing room only, the bars are pack, and then there's all sorts of partying and stuff all done throughout the campgrounds.  I was saddened to see that they were expecting north of 250K people there.

2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Mario Wario on August 08, 2020, 09:32:34 PM
I recommend not worrying about summer 2021 until Jan. 1st, 2021. It’s too early to guess right now, which is why I’m not voting. Let's see what happens with the vaccine race among other things that will help fight the virus. Let’s just keep hoping for the best and think positively along the way. Also, less political talk = less negative energy floating around. And I am not shocked that CES ‘21 is not happing. I’m just not.

Now, if in-person Comic-Con ‘21 is a thing thanks to science winning the battle, I don’t expect the con to be held outside (because it gets hot in SD in July, the cost in renting a baseball stadium is not cheap; rain is possible, too), masks will be required to enter the con, and some crowd control will be required at the event.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 08, 2020, 11:43:55 PM
Even if everything goes well, I don't see a vaccine being a factor by comic-con 2021.  Even if the leading candidates get approved, there won't be enough supply by then for most people.  There will be a priority list, healthcare workers and the elderly for example, before it trickles down to everyone else.  It also won't win the battle.  Covid is here to stay.  It's too widespread to put back in the bottle.  Now, it's about figuring out how to live with it.  There's only been one widespread disease that's ever been eradicated.  That took 200 years of vaccinations.  Unlike today, that's was during a time when most people were willing to get vaccinated.

There have been plenty of events at the stadium.  As I said, that's where the mini cons were held.  It's not that hot.  I doubt it would costs more to rent it than it does to rent the convention center.  I don't think it's that expensive.  That's why so many offsites are held there.  Microsoft booked the whole thing for a Rocket League tournament.  They did their best to fill the stadium up.  Considering that San Diego is the majority owner of Petco, I'm pretty sure they would be motivated to work a deal.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: FlamedLiquid on August 19, 2020, 12:20:17 AM
As of right now Im leaning more towards No.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 22, 2020, 01:14:19 AM
Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: puppy on August 23, 2020, 05:30:08 PM
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Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.

That would be great, if only people would wear masks and isolate over here.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on August 25, 2020, 09:03:29 AM
Well, this is certainly to a good sign: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/25/business/biogen-conference-likely-led-20000-covid-19-cases-boston-area-researchers-say/

Quote
Biogen conference likely led to 20,000 COVID-19 cases in Boston area, researchers say
- The Boston Globe

And more importantly, it's a _terrible_ look for Boston & the org that hosted the conference.

Now, that conference took place in February, before US starting taking COVID-19 pandemic even kind of seriously (I don't think our country is taking this anywhere near serious enough for the most part), so they can't necessarily be blamed at this point.  Sturgis is already showing blow-ups nationwide of infections from its attendees: 15 days after the event South Dakota (host state) hit record numbers of daily cases (250+) with neighboring states (like Nebraska) hitting upticks as well.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/21/us/sturgis-motorcyle-rally-sd-covid-nebraska-trnd/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1vo6oT_9oRpYq_sb3WG21_llpBo8_tH5gwgI-put9ItUAlF9nfxz4WNLU

And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/hong-kong-man-was-reinfected-coronavirus-researchers-say-n1237840?fbclid=IwAR0EBazu_sC9Of_GZuJle_bP35QpBDrL3IqkPNk6KRsEyMSwwlg2NHQtvS8

Now, 11 months is still a lot of time.  But the science of viral disease that is both known and unknown at this time, probably doesn't bode great for 2021 in-person conventions.  I'd love for my pessimism to be misguided, but all the science says being indoors for long periods of time around large crowds is the absolute worst thing that one could do  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 25, 2020, 09:50:05 AM
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Well, this is certainly to a good sign.

After quickly reading your first sentence, I felt a little sense of joy...until realizing shortly thereafter it was tongue-in-cheek.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 25, 2020, 02:44:23 PM
Speaking of large events, the Sturgis numbers are just starting to roll in.

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And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).

There have been a lot of reports of people getting reinfected.  Many have not been reported in the media.  Many reports are dismissed as either bad testing or that the person never fully recovered.  Some people have significant symptoms for months.  It's like we are selectively choosing to ignore that since we have pinned all our hopes on a vaccine.  But study after study has shown that neutralizing antibodies decline rapidly after recovery.  Depending on the study, it only lasts a few weeks to a few months.  Also, the hope was that if you had little or no symptoms the first time, that it would be the same the second time.  But I've heard one doctor describe one of his patients that got reinfected a few months later.  The first time he was asymptomatic.  The second time he had to be hospitalized.

Until shown otherwise, I would expect covid to act like other coronaviruses.  The one most people are familiar with is the common cold.  People normally get that 2-3 times a year.  Which fits in with immunity only lasting about 3 months.  A recent bout with the cold might give you some partial immunity to covid.  The t cells from fighting a cold are effective against it's coronavirus cousin.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on August 25, 2020, 02:50:24 PM
What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 25, 2020, 02:55:40 PM
Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on August 25, 2020, 03:00:49 PM
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What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.

Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

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Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on August 26, 2020, 10:40:23 PM
From https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/homelessness/story/2020-08-26/convention-center-shelter-to-close-by-years-end-state-oks-funds-hotel-purchase

Quote
The venue already had been dark for weeks before the shelter opening, with the pandemic causing the cancellation of large annual events such as Comic-Con International, costing the city millions of dollars in tax revenue and dealing an economic blow to area businesses.

Conventions still aren’t scheduled at the venue, but Faulconer said they are expected to resume in 2021, and closing the shelter this year will clear the way ahead of time for their return.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 27, 2020, 01:20:01 AM
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Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871
Thank you.


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 29, 2020, 06:53:50 AM
New article in the UT today speaking about the impact convention center event cancelations have had on downtown San Diego businesses.

Thoughts are also shared on the prospects of events in 2021.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/tourism/story/2020-08-29/cancelled-conventions-san-diego
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on August 30, 2020, 02:05:13 PM
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After quickly reading your first sentence, I felt a little sense of joy...until realizing shortly thereafter it was tongue-in-cheek.
yeah, it was actually a typo: meant to type "_not_ a good sign."  I wouldn't make light of a pandemic, and certainly not as it relates to Comic-Con  :(
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Miclpea on August 30, 2020, 03:14:00 PM
Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on August 30, 2020, 04:52:28 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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*raises hand*

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200830/fa5df9882d203003385a12d0a60b70fb.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 01, 2020, 08:39:58 AM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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Absolutely!  I'm a HS music teacher; this is my 20th year in the same district, 16th year at my current school.  And I feel like tomorrow (when school starts...virtually for at least the first 12 weeks) is the first time I've ever taught before!  Even though marching band and fall sports have been canceled in CA (meaning, I've had zero summer rehearsals this year), I feel like I've been twice as busy as normal prepping to open school, I'm scrambling to learn new tech that our district provided training for extremely late (last week), and I have nerves like I haven't had in I-don't-know-how-long!  I left this am to go into my office and pick something up to work from home and I had to walk from my condo to my car and back at least three times because I kept forgetting (vital) stuff: my espresso (I have a 6-shot latte every am) first, then my hearing aids, then my glasses!  I felt like one of my HS students who doesn't have it together yet!!

I feel like this has already been the longest trimester I've ever taught through, and I haven't even started yet  ???
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on September 01, 2020, 11:43:18 AM
Pressure?  No, I don't feel and pressure.  Why do you ask?  ::Starts gnawing on my own arm::
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 01, 2020, 10:11:52 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?

I'm tired and anxious.  I don't know if I can keep this up for another couple of years.

The current public health agency drama isn't helping.  If people aren't aware, today the NIH went on record that they oppose the FDA EUA for convalescent plasma.  The NIH says there is not enough evidence to support it's use.  This is to say the least unusual.  This shouldn't happen ever.  The NIH should be on board before the FDA moved.  The problem is that the FDA is too politicized in this administration.  That's a big problem.  They make decisions based on what the President wants and not what the science supports.  Convalescent plasma is not the first time.  This incident in particular has been a nightmare.  The FDA commissioner gave a BS explanation to justify why he approved the EUA for convalescent plasma.  They said that Fauci approved it during the task force meeting.  Fauci represents the NIH on the task force.  Fauci was unconscious in an operating room during that meeting.  Now the NIH goes on the record saying that convalescent plasma should not be considered a standard of care until it's proven effective.

I don't have much faith in the current FDA.  So much so that if they approve a vaccine I will find it hard to trust them.  Especially if they do it before the phase 3 clinical trials complete.  I will look toward public health agencies in Europe and Asia to decide when and which vaccine to take.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Michael M on September 02, 2020, 06:55:16 PM
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Has anyone else just felt mentally exhausted and prone to errors?


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I've been trying to get outside a lot during my day as I've been WFH since Feb. I don't have a proper home office but have been able to spin up a makeshift office desk area in my basement. Given that it's below ground w/no windows really makes you feel isolated, unlike an office w/windows.  So, the result is forcing myself to get up and out.  My dog now gets walked at least 6 (!!) times a day.  He loves it, and I do it to make sure there's a sun outside :D
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 02, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
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I've been trying to get outside a lot during my day as I've been WFH since Feb. I don't have a proper home office but have been able to spin up a makeshift office desk area in my basement. Given that it's below ground w/no windows really makes you feel isolated, unlike an office w/windows.  So, the result is forcing myself to get up and out.  My dog now gets walked at least 6 (!!) times a day.  He loves it, and I do it to make sure there's a sun outside :D

I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 02, 2020, 10:49:30 PM
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I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!

Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 03, 2020, 08:19:28 AM
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Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.

You're not making me excited for my trip to SD next week, lol!  (We're staying at a VRBO near my dad, and will spend our time on the rooftop deck and in the yard.  We're waiting until after the Labor Day craziness.) 
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 03, 2020, 03:14:07 PM
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I'm in Phoenix and we're having our hottest summer EVER.  So far 34 days over 110.  We've had 2 two week stretches where it hasn't fallen below 90.  I can't wait for cooler weather and to get outdoors!!
my parents recently moved to Goodyear (in April) from the mid-west, and I've been following the temps and WOW!  I saw it's supposed to get to 120 this weekend!  I live in San Diego, and we're getting in the the 100's this weekend, but whenever I want to complain or something I slide my iPhone weather app screen over to "Goodyear" and remind myself it could always be significantly worse.  Part of me is glad this summer is hottest ever, since it kinda makes me feel like "well, maybe it won't be this awful every summer for my parents," but part of me is a little worried this will be the new norm temp-wise...
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 03, 2020, 03:18:10 PM
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Here in San Diego, it's not the heat.  It's always been hot.  It's the humidity.  The old saying was that "It's the dry heat."  Now that's a joke.  The weather is Thailand-like even late into the night.  These last couple of days have been a reprieve but that's supposed to end and the hot and humid weather is due to return.

Unlike the lush green vegetation in other areas that are hot and humid, everything here is still dry, dead, brown and ready to burn.  It doesn't seem fair.
Yeah, but I feel like 1) this is the worst time of year for hot/humid weather (I say this as a HS band teacher, who spends a _lot_ of time outside from June-November annually) and 2) this summer has been relatively mild for the most part.  It sucks that the pandemic has screwed up our electric bills, because I feel like we've hardly used the AC this summer.  It's been not-great the last couple of weeks, with the exception of this week (I walk every night around 9:30/10 and the last few nights have legit been _chilly_ w/temps in the low 60's).  It is getting awful w/today likely being the last day of no-AC for the foreseeable future.  I see 107 as a high on Sat & Sun (w/low 70's as lows, at least, so hopefully it cools off a bit in the evenings) with lots of mid-90's highs between tomorrow and next Friday
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 04, 2020, 11:05:19 PM
What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday it was relatively cool.  Today it's back to the AC being on until 10pm and flex alerts.  A couple of weeks ago, it hit 105 in the shade of the patio.  I think we might hit that again in the next few days.

From a practical point of view, it's the humidity that's the problem.  I have camera equipment but I never had to worry about fungus until a couple of years ago.  Now I have a dry box.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 05, 2020, 10:09:37 AM
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my parents recently moved to Goodyear (in April) from the mid-west, and I've been following the temps and WOW!  I saw it's supposed to get to 120 this weekend!  I live in San Diego, and we're getting in the the 100's this weekend, but whenever I want to complain or something I slide my iPhone weather app screen over to "Goodyear" and remind myself it could always be significantly worse.  Part of me is glad this summer is hottest ever, since it kinda makes me feel like "well, maybe it won't be this awful every summer for my parents," but part of me is a little worried this will be the new norm temp-wise...

We moved to Phoenix from Ohio (at the beginning of June, many years ago) and the first summer was quite an experience!  I couldn't understand how anyone could put on jeans in the summer, and then the summer went all the way into October.  But it's true, your blood thins or whatever and it becomes easier each year.  I'm sorry your parents got 2020 for their first summer here, though hopefully all future summers will seem easy by comparison.  I'm not going to comment on it being the new normal, I can't go there.  Once we get past the middle of September it should feel cooler in the mornings and evenings, at least.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 05, 2020, 10:13:10 AM
2020 continuing to deliver nothing but goodness.  All-time record high temps in SD today/tomorrow.  Yep...

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200905/aaca03d2160c4abb4238f71913f94511.gif)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 05, 2020, 12:25:41 PM
Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 09, 2020, 12:42:27 AM
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2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.

The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: TardisMom on September 09, 2020, 09:10:39 AM
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.

The super annoying part is that the Sturgis community made money but then their home area bears the brunt of the virus treatment costs.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 10, 2020, 09:45:47 AM
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.
yeah, if Sturgis was the litmus test for large gatherings, it went very poorly for large event planners.  Of course, the Sturgis crowd didn't seem the type to wear masks, social distance, etc. so maybe it's not the best example, but Sturgis definitely makes prospects of returning to conventions anytime soon likely not-viable.  I can't fathom _any_ organization wants to be in national (international?) news for being a super-spreading event (let alone responsible for many people getting sick and/or dying).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 10, 2020, 09:53:41 AM
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Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 10, 2020, 10:18:04 AM
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: Chris on September 10, 2020, 02:03:45 PM
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've been saying this for years, but no one understood.  San Diego is cooler than other places, but a lot of homes and businesses don't have AC.  Also, some businesses that do have AC, but don't use it due to high electricity costs.  I've lived in 3 other very hot cities and there was AC everywhere.

Totally agree that the weather has changed since the late 90s.  It used to be about 3 hot weeks per year and now it is around 4 months.

Nice to see that other people have seen the same thing.  :)
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 10, 2020, 11:50:06 PM
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In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've told people this when they talked about snow days.  We had hot days.  The HS I went to was the newest in the district at the time so we had AC.  The other schools didn't.  So when it got too hot, the district would send everyone home.  We also had to go even though we had AC.  Which kind of sucked since we didn't have AC at home.  It wasn't that bad back then.  It was the dry heat.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: RighteousRita on September 11, 2020, 06:59:25 AM
With state of California is right now. I don't see this happening. With the wildfires and cases going up and places not opening. And other factors, it really needs to be a vaccine in place that works before I see it happening for 2021.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 11, 2020, 11:45:13 AM
I'm not sure we'll see much difference with a vaccine.  The percentage of people that say they will definitely get one is down to 21%.  The anti-vaxers have been hard at work since day 1.  It's working for them.  The lost of trust in the FDA due to it's politicization by the current administration isn't helping.  62% of people surveyed are concerned that the FDA will approve a vaccine not based on science but on politics.  If a vaccine is 50% effective, the baseline for the FDA approval, and only a quarter of the population takes it I don't see it having much impact.  Especially since at least some people will feel invincible after vaccination and stop wearing masks and socially distancing.

As an example, the flu vaccine is taken by about 45% of the population.  That vaccine is time tested and thus doesn't have any of the concerns about being rushed.  It's also not political.  It's about 45-50% effective.  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year.  Covid is more contagious and more virulent.

Messaging by the public health agencies has been a disaster since this started.  It hasn't been any different for a vaccine.  I think most people think that once we get a vaccine, it will be all clear.  That's the messaging we are getting.  That's not going to happen.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: stl_ben on September 14, 2020, 07:02:01 AM
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  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year. 
Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:
Quote
However, the actual number of counted influenza deaths over that timespan ranged between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths each year.
The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

So there is really no comparison to some thing that kills 20,000 a year to something that kills 200,000 in 6 months.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on September 14, 2020, 07:12:15 AM
But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: perc2100 on September 14, 2020, 09:37:12 AM
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How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: mattytreks on September 14, 2020, 09:41:18 AM
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Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.

The parallels between our life journies are striking indeed, haha!

I too live in the RB/Carmel Mtn area...and I too am from Ohio!  Northern Ohio, right on Lake Erie (city of Huron).
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 14, 2020, 12:55:52 PM
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Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

That's incorrect.  The only thing we know for sure is that the actual counted deaths are low.  Since not everyone is tested for the flu when they die.  Not everyone is in a hospital when they die.  So the confirmed counted deaths are the floor, not the totally of deaths.

There's a reason the CDC uses an estimate for the flu.  Since we really don't track it that well.  A tiny percentage of the population is tested.  Many people only get tested if they go to the ER.  If people don't test positive for the flu then they aren't counted.  I've had the flu a few times in my life.  I've not been tested once.

Also, just like with covid, the flu may cause someone to perish due to existing conditions.  Just like with covid then the flu may not be listed as the cause of death.  The flu has been around so long that if someone dies of an existing condition, often it's not even considered.  Especially if they die at home.  More people die at home than in a hospital.  Here's a discussion of this situation with covid.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

The flu has been around so long that the models that estimate it's impact are very good.  That model takes all these factors into consideration.  Here are the CDC estimates.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

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But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

They are.  That and a variety of other factors.  The reported deaths are the floor, not the true number of deaths.

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Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.

Unfortunately those mandates don't work very well.  Not anymore.  Masks are also mandated in many states.  According to the person who models the estimated deaths we hear about on the news all the time, the compliance rate for mask wearing is 45%.

Unless the government gets serious about enforcing those mandates, it doesn't mean much.  In my area the authorities made it clear they wouldn't be enforcing any pandemic rules.  I don't see that being any different with a vaccine.  Especially now when it's become so tribal.

Mandates can work.  In European countries with reluctant populations, handing out $3,000 citations took care of that problem quickly.  I just don't see the will to do that here in the US.

Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: sefton42 on September 14, 2020, 01:30:59 PM
That’s going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.  In Miami, the police issued citations to people for not wearing masks.  New York cited businesses that didn’t comply with pandemic requirements.  I know some businesses in my state were shut down for noncompliance.  I didn’t say every state would mandate vaccinations, just that I doubt mine will be the only one.
Plus our governor’s term is up next year and our governors can’t run for re-election, so he may not have much political capital to lose by enforcing a vaccine mandate.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: chocolateshake on September 14, 2020, 06:58:16 PM
It does vary.  Unfortunately even in cities like Miami that are highlighted for their enforcement, it's meager in terms of number and fines.  As of about a month ago, Miami had issued 288 citations.  The citations were for $100 or less.  Even with such a low fine, they were ignored.  Only 4 fines had been paid.  Similarly in San Diego, through the end of may, only 400 citations had been issued not just in the city itself but all over San Diego county.

In comparison, at it's height, Italy issued over 16,000 citations in one day.  One area in Germany issued over 1,000 citations a day.  Even in Melbourne they issued over 100 citations in day.  The fines are also much higher than $100.  In Italy up to $3,000, in Germany up to $10,000 and in Melbourne averaging over $1,000.
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: susanml10881 on September 19, 2020, 01:50:43 PM
The city is asking Newsom to let them reopen the convention center. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-leaders-ask-gov-newsom-to-approve-convention-center-reopenings/2408896/
Title: Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
Post by: AzT on September 19, 2020, 09:06:09 PM
From https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/homelessness/story/2020-09-18/housing-commission-approves-hotel-purchase-for-homeless-housing

Quote
SAN DIEGO —  A plan to purchase two hotels to house up to 400 homeless people now living in a temporary shelter at the Convention Center was unanimously approved Friday by San Diego housing commissioners, who also approved funding for support services at the sites for the new tenants.

Because about 800 people at the Convention Center still will need shelter after the hotels open, commissioners also approved a plan to reinstate and add more beds to a homeless shelter at Golden Hall at the San Diego Concourse and to reopen, with a reduced number of beds, other shelters that were closed because of the pandemic.

The plan to purchase Marriott Residence Inns in Mission Valley and Kearny Mesa is expected to advance to the San Diego Housing Authority for final approval next month, and the housing will be available when the Convention Center shelter closes by the end of the year.

Quote
sdconventionctr U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams visited our Convention Center this week to tour Operation Shelter to Home with Mayor @kevinfaulconer.

Dr. Adams said: “My time in San Diego has been incredibly productive and given me unique insight to bring back to Washington. I especially appreciated the opportunity to learn about these local efforts to protect both the most vulnerable among us, the minority populations who have been more susceptible to the virus, and the cross-sector partnerships supporting the health of San Diego’s citizens.”

https://www.instagram.com/p/CFNZe0KjeEx/