Poll

Armed only with what you know *right now*, do you think SDCC will return to an in-person event in 2021?

Yes
33 (48.5%)
No
35 (51.5%)

Total Members Voted: 68


Author Topic: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)  (Read 5475 times)

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #75 on: September 05, 2020, 12:25:41 PM »
Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 02:47:43 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #76 on: September 09, 2020, 12:42:27 AM »
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2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.

The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.


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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #77 on: Today at 11:30:18 AM »

Offline TardisMom

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #77 on: September 09, 2020, 09:10:39 AM »
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.

The super annoying part is that the Sturgis community made money but then their home area bears the brunt of the virus treatment costs.

Offline perc2100

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #78 on: September 10, 2020, 09:45:47 AM »
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The first estimate is in.  It's an estimate taking the hard South Dakota covid numbers and using a math model based on mobility data of pings around Sturgis.  That way they could count how many people attended and then track their behavior.  The covid cases in South Dakota went vertical after Sturgis.  The mobility data suggests that about 350,000 people attended Sturgis which is about 100,000 less than the South Dakota DoT estimated.  It could be a lot of people didn't carry phones.

The number the model came up with is 266,796 cases of covid due to Sturgis.  This doesn't mean that 267K of the 350K people who attended Sturgis got sick.  It means that the people infected at Sturgis went on to cause 267 thousand people to be infected including themselves.  Just like how 200 people at a meeting in Boston caused 20,000 people to be infected.

This is why large gatherings shouldn't happen.  It's just not the attendees that are at risk.  It's all the people the attendees interact with afterwards.
yeah, if Sturgis was the litmus test for large gatherings, it went very poorly for large event planners.  Of course, the Sturgis crowd didn't seem the type to wear masks, social distance, etc. so maybe it's not the best example, but Sturgis definitely makes prospects of returning to conventions anytime soon likely not-viable.  I can't fathom _any_ organization wants to be in national (international?) news for being a super-spreading event (let alone responsible for many people getting sick and/or dying).

Offline perc2100

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #79 on: September 10, 2020, 09:53:41 AM »
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Unfortunately I think this is a new normal.  It's climate change.  It's only going to get worse.  I remember when the sky would be crystal clear for months during the summer.  For the last few years, there are those thunderstorm looking clouds off to the east all through the summer.  It's not only that it's hotter during the summer, it's colder during the winter.  There used to be a solid 6 months out of the year where the whether was so temperate that we needed neither heating nor cooling.  Now we seem to go from having the heat on to switching over to AC.  San Diego is a semi-desert climate.  It used to be anyways.  So in the summer it should be hot during the day but then cold at night.  We could open up the windows at night and turn on a fan to cool down the house and then we could make it to late afternoon before having to turn on the AC.  The humidity has changed all that.  It's acts as a blanket and now it doesn't cool down as much at night.  The AC has to be on in the morning.

Right now the air temperature is 110 degrees in the shade of my patio.  The dirt that was my lawn is 150 degrees.
Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

Offline mattytreks

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #80 on: September 10, 2020, 10:18:04 AM »
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
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Offline Chris

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #81 on: September 10, 2020, 02:03:45 PM »
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Unfortunately, I think you're right.  I moved to San Diego summer of 1999, and the climate/weather has seemingly dramatically changed in that relatively short time span.  Triple digit temps were incredibly rare, and if the temps were awful inland you could go to the coast for a respite.  This past weekend where I live we hit the 110+ (pushing 115 at one point), and even on the coast it was upper-90's: seemingly unheard of temps even just 20 years ago!  Humidity seems to have worsened as well over the years.
My wife and I luckily bought a condo that is in the shade for the vast majority of the day (we seriously are in the sun slightly less than 60 minutes a day), so there are A LOT of folks in the county far worse off than me.  One thing non-San Diego folks may not realize is that many older homes don't have AC (and many schools, for that matter).  I know folks who've been baking in their homes due to lack of AC; most of the schools are not in session.  In San Diego Unified, one of the largest school districts in the country and NOT where I teach, most of the schools don't have AC unless they're either newer facilities or are in a zone with too much noise - such as near the airport flight path.  In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've been saying this for years, but no one understood.  San Diego is cooler than other places, but a lot of homes and businesses don't have AC.  Also, some businesses that do have AC, but don't use it due to high electricity costs.  I've lived in 3 other very hot cities and there was AC everywhere.

Totally agree that the weather has changed since the late 90s.  It used to be about 3 hot weeks per year and now it is around 4 months.

Nice to see that other people have seen the same thing.  :)

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #82 on: September 10, 2020, 11:50:06 PM »
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In the district I teach, all of the schools have AC, and if power/AC goes out this time of year it wouldn't be uncommon to end school early/cancel for the day (that's happened only a few times in the 20 years I've worked in the district).

I've told people this when they talked about snow days.  We had hot days.  The HS I went to was the newest in the district at the time so we had AC.  The other schools didn't.  So when it got too hot, the district would send everyone home.  We also had to go even though we had AC.  Which kind of sucked since we didn't have AC at home.  It wasn't that bad back then.  It was the dry heat.

Offline RighteousRita

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2020, 06:59:25 AM »
With state of California is right now. I don't see this happening. With the wildfires and cases going up and places not opening. And other factors, it really needs to be a vaccine in place that works before I see it happening for 2021.

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #84 on: September 11, 2020, 11:45:13 AM »
I'm not sure we'll see much difference with a vaccine.  The percentage of people that say they will definitely get one is down to 21%.  The anti-vaxers have been hard at work since day 1.  It's working for them.  The lost of trust in the FDA due to it's politicization by the current administration isn't helping.  62% of people surveyed are concerned that the FDA will approve a vaccine not based on science but on politics.  If a vaccine is 50% effective, the baseline for the FDA approval, and only a quarter of the population takes it I don't see it having much impact.  Especially since at least some people will feel invincible after vaccination and stop wearing masks and socially distancing.

As an example, the flu vaccine is taken by about 45% of the population.  That vaccine is time tested and thus doesn't have any of the concerns about being rushed.  It's also not political.  It's about 45-50% effective.  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year.  Covid is more contagious and more virulent.

Messaging by the public health agencies has been a disaster since this started.  It hasn't been any different for a vaccine.  I think most people think that once we get a vaccine, it will be all clear.  That's the messaging we are getting.  That's not going to happen.

Offline stl_ben

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #85 on: September 14, 2020, 07:02:01 AM »
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  Between 35,000 and 85,000 people die of the flu each year. 
Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:
Quote
However, the actual number of counted influenza deaths over that timespan ranged between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths each year.
The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

So there is really no comparison to some thing that kills 20,000 a year to something that kills 200,000 in 6 months.

Offline sefton42

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #86 on: September 14, 2020, 07:12:15 AM »
But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.

Offline perc2100

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #87 on: September 14, 2020, 09:37:12 AM »
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How ironic.  At 17, I too moved with my family to San Diego in the summer of 1999...June to be exact.  It's nice to hear the perspective and observations of someone who arrived lived here at the exact same time.

I echo your sentiments about the change in weather.  Back then it seemed there used to be a lot more consistency in the weather, year-round.  In other words, far less extremes than we see today...Winters with literally days upon days of consecutive rain, Summers and Falls fraught with searing, scorching heat.

The wildfires, though, feel like they've been around since Day 1.  Who can ever forget the Cedar Fire of 2003, or the Harris/Witch Fires of 2007.

While I can get used to more dramatic weather, I cannot get used to Summers without Comic-Con.
Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.

Offline mattytreks

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #88 on: September 14, 2020, 09:41:18 AM »
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Yeah the fires have always been a thing.  I don't recall which fire(s) were the really really bad one(s): the fire that jumped the 15 around Mira Mesa.  That's the one that I had to evacuate (I live in the Rancho Bernardo/Carmel Mt. area), which is practically unheard of since I live in mostly surrounded by concrete.

One thing that blew me away, moving to San Diego from Central OH, are that schools have "heat days:" meaning, since many schools don't have AC, there were one or two days where school districts would cancel school (typically in early-mid September, usually the hottest time of year) for the day!  In Central OH (and much of the east & mid-west), we had 'Snow Days,' so the legit opposite kinda blew my mind.  My first year teaching out here, during the 99/00 school year, the district I worked in had 1 'heat day' and all the teachers called it "Beach Day"  :P
I can count the number of 'heat days' I've experienced on fingers of one hand in the 20+ years working in San Diego, the last one being one school in my district (not mine) that had to have an 'early dismissal' because 1) heat and 2) the electricity went out.

The parallels between our life journies are striking indeed, haha!

I too live in the RB/Carmel Mtn area...and I too am from Ohio!  Northern Ohio, right on Lake Erie (city of Huron).
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #89 on: September 14, 2020, 12:55:52 PM »
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Incorrect, the flu deaths are way lower than that. The numbers most people keep stating are the "estimated" deaths, not the actual counted deaths. From the CDC:The counted Flu deaths for any of the last 10 years is under 20,000 per year.  Some as low as 3,448 as shown above.

That's incorrect.  The only thing we know for sure is that the actual counted deaths are low.  Since not everyone is tested for the flu when they die.  Not everyone is in a hospital when they die.  So the confirmed counted deaths are the floor, not the totally of deaths.

There's a reason the CDC uses an estimate for the flu.  Since we really don't track it that well.  A tiny percentage of the population is tested.  Many people only get tested if they go to the ER.  If people don't test positive for the flu then they aren't counted.  I've had the flu a few times in my life.  I've not been tested once.

Also, just like with covid, the flu may cause someone to perish due to existing conditions.  Just like with covid then the flu may not be listed as the cause of death.  The flu has been around so long that if someone dies of an existing condition, often it's not even considered.  Especially if they die at home.  More people die at home than in a hospital.  Here's a discussion of this situation with covid.

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The flu has been around so long that the models that estimate it's impact are very good.  That model takes all these factors into consideration.  Here are the CDC estimates.

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But aren’t those estimated deaths also from the CDC based on the number of actual reported deaths?

They are.  That and a variety of other factors.  The reported deaths are the floor, not the true number of deaths.

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Also, my state has said it will mandate the vaccine, with exceptions for medical conditions and religious objections.  Apparently in 1905 the US Supreme Court approved state ordered vaccinations, so I would think there will be other states that do the same.  That will drive up the number of people getting vaccinated.

Unfortunately those mandates don't work very well.  Not anymore.  Masks are also mandated in many states.  According to the person who models the estimated deaths we hear about on the news all the time, the compliance rate for mask wearing is 45%.

Unless the government gets serious about enforcing those mandates, it doesn't mean much.  In my area the authorities made it clear they wouldn't be enforcing any pandemic rules.  I don't see that being any different with a vaccine.  Especially now when it's become so tribal.

Mandates can work.  In European countries with reluctant populations, handing out $3,000 citations took care of that problem quickly.  I just don't see the will to do that here in the US.

« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 01:21:34 PM by chocolateshake »