Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)

[Michael M]

Let's see how the Sturgis experiment goes.  If that works out, maybe there can be a comic-con 2021.  A different kind of comic-con but still a comic-con.  Instead of holding it indoors at the convention center, hold it outdoors at Petco.  Transmission outdoors is lower than it is indoors.  There have been other convention like events at Petco.  What they do is segment the seating into separate panel rooms.  The field itself can be an exhibit hall or a Hall H substitute.

This $#!7 scares me...I attended the Sturgis rally and stayed and the Chip and I can tell you firsthand that there's no sort of "social distancing space" whatsoever. Yes it's a huge campground and yes there's all sorts of various things that keep people in different areas, but it is literally wall-to-wall packed w/people and bikes.  The concerts are standing room only, the bars are pack, and then there's all sorts of partying and stuff all done throughout the campgrounds.  I was saddened to see that they were expecting north of 250K people there.

2-3 weeks from now will be a telling sign for them to see what kinda spread comes from this...just plain scary.

[Mario Wario]

I recommend not worrying about summer 2021 until Jan. 1st, 2021. It’s too early to guess right now, which is why I’m not voting. Let's see what happens with the vaccine race among other things that will help fight the virus. Let’s just keep hoping for the best and think positively along the way. Also, less political talk = less negative energy floating around. And I am not shocked that CES ‘21 is not happing. I’m just not.

Now, if in-person Comic-Con ‘21 is a thing thanks to science winning the battle, I don’t expect the con to be held outside (because it gets hot in SD in July, the cost in renting a baseball stadium is not cheap; rain is possible, too), masks will be required to enter the con, and some crowd control will be required at the event.

[Friends of Comic Cons]

[chocolateshake]

Even if everything goes well, I don't see a vaccine being a factor by comic-con 2021.  Even if the leading candidates get approved, there won't be enough supply by then for most people.  There will be a priority list, healthcare workers and the elderly for example, before it trickles down to everyone else.  It also won't win the battle.  Covid is here to stay.  It's too widespread to put back in the bottle.  Now, it's about figuring out how to live with it.  There's only been one widespread disease that's ever been eradicated.  That took 200 years of vaccinations.  Unlike today, that's was during a time when most people were willing to get vaccinated.

There have been plenty of events at the stadium.  As I said, that's where the mini cons were held.  It's not that hot.  I doubt it would costs more to rent it than it does to rent the convention center.  I don't think it's that expensive.  That's why so many offsites are held there.  Microsoft booked the whole thing for a Rocket League tournament.  They did their best to fill the stadium up.  Considering that San Diego is the majority owner of Petco, I'm pretty sure they would be motivated to work a deal.

[FlamedLiquid]

As of right now Im leaning more towards No.

[chocolateshake]

Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.

[puppy]

Wuhan is showing a possible path forward even without a vaccine.  This week they held a massive pool party with no social distancing or masks.  They worked up to this.  They had a real lockdown, mask wearing and contact tracing.  There has not been a single case of covid in 3 months.  In May when there were a handful of cases, they tested the entire population of over 10 million people in a few days.  The water park itself has been open for 2 months with 15,000 daily visitors with no known incidents.  They are showing what is possible if people get their act together.  New Zealand is similarly successful.  They went back to pre-covid norms after it was declared covid free.  They had no cases for over 3 months.  Then 2 weeks ago there were 4 new cases, all in the same family.  Auckland went into lockdown.

That would be great, if only people would wear masks and isolate over here.

[perc2100]

Well, this is certainly to a good sign: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

Biogen conference likely led to 20,000 COVID-19 cases in Boston area, researchers say

- The Boston Globe

And more importantly, it's a _terrible_ look for Boston & the org that hosted the conference.

Now, that conference took place in February, before US starting taking COVID-19 pandemic even kind of seriously (I don't think our country is taking this anywhere near serious enough for the most part), so they can't necessarily be blamed at this point.  Sturgis is already showing blow-ups nationwide of infections from its attendees: 15 days after the event South Dakota (host state) hit record numbers of daily cases (250+) with neighboring states (like Nebraska) hitting upticks as well.
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And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).
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Now, 11 months is still a lot of time.  But the science of viral disease that is both known and unknown at this time, probably doesn't bode great for 2021 in-person conventions.  I'd love for my pessimism to be misguided, but all the science says being indoors for long periods of time around large crowds is the absolute worst thing that one could do 

[mattytreks]

Well, this is certainly to a good sign.

After quickly reading your first sentence, I felt a little sense of joy...until realizing shortly thereafter it was tongue-in-cheek.

[chocolateshake]

Speaking of large events, the Sturgis numbers are just starting to roll in.

And then there's the story yesterday out of Hong Kong, that covers the first known reinfected person.  They "had immunity for about 120 days" is the story, but the person only got sick after traveling for business: meaning, it's possible immunity lasted _less time_ but we don't know.  This isn't unexpected, per say, but oddly the article says the guy suffered "mild symptoms" that still had him hospitalized for more than 2 weeks.  There are other accounts in the article about "rare" reinfected patients, though with such a new virus there is not a lot of data (which is why the doctors/scientists aren't alarmed: because there isn't a lot of data to be worried at this time).

There have been a lot of reports of people getting reinfected.  Many have not been reported in the media.  Many reports are dismissed as either bad testing or that the person never fully recovered.  Some people have significant symptoms for months.  It's like we are selectively choosing to ignore that since we have pinned all our hopes on a vaccine.  But study after study has shown that neutralizing antibodies decline rapidly after recovery.  Depending on the study, it only lasts a few weeks to a few months.  Also, the hope was that if you had little or no symptoms the first time, that it would be the same the second time.  But I've heard one doctor describe one of his patients that got reinfected a few months later.  The first time he was asymptomatic.  The second time he had to be hospitalized.

Until shown otherwise, I would expect covid to act like other coronaviruses.  The one most people are familiar with is the common cold.  People normally get that 2-3 times a year.  Which fits in with immunity only lasting about 3 months.  A recent bout with the cold might give you some partial immunity to covid.  The t cells from fighting a cold are effective against it's coronavirus cousin.

[sefton42]

What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.

[Miclpea]

Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?


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[chocolateshake]

What has been known before was that people who had previously recovered had tested positive again — at that point they weren’t sure it was “re-infection” per se.  What the new tests are actually showing is that if you’re infected by one strain and recover, a you can still be re-infected by a different strain of the virus.  It’s a more nuanced finding than just people testing positive again.

Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

Everyone, this is great info. Could you also include links to the articles?

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

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[AzT]

From You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

The venue already had been dark for weeks before the shelter opening, with the pandemic causing the cancellation of large annual events such as Comic-Con International, costing the city millions of dollars in tax revenue and dealing an economic blow to area businesses.

Conventions still aren’t scheduled at the venue, but Faulconer said they are expected to resume in 2021, and closing the shelter this year will clear the way ahead of time for their return.

[Miclpea]

Considering he was in Spain when he got re-infected that's probably D614G, the European strain.  The difference between that and the strain in Asia is that it has a lot more spike proteins.  So it's more contagious.  Otherwise it's the same old covid.  But because it's more contagious, it's quickly become the dominant strain in Europe and America.  The prevalent strain of covid in the US didn't come from China, it came from Europe.  That may also explain why Asian countries have been so successful in controlling the pandemic.  The strain they are dealing with is less contagious.

Here's the paper about the common cold possibly offering partial immunity to covid.

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Thank you.


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[mattytreks]

New article in the UT today speaking about the impact convention center event cancelations have had on downtown San Diego businesses.

Thoughts are also shared on the prospects of events in 2021.

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