Poll

Armed only with what you know *right now*, do you think SDCC will return to an in-person event in 2021?

Yes
33 (36.7%)
No
57 (63.3%)

Total Members Voted: 90


Author Topic: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)  (Read 13386 times)

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #165 on: February 01, 2021, 07:02:33 PM »
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the good thing over looked by most of the reporting on the variants, is the fact that all the vaccines seem to lessen the effects of whichever strain of the virus. IOW, if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital.
At this point covid be comes con-crud


from todays' NYtimes quoted because it's behind a paywall
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First, about the vaccines.  IMO, they are all the same.  The results just need the proper interpretation.  The BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were all evaluated against the prototype virus.  Novavax and J&J had the variants mixed in.  I think we will find that once data comes in about the variants and the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines they will have the same level of effectiveness.  Also, the reason that the J&J vaccine has lower overall effectiveness is that this result is from their 1 dose arm.  If you look at the effectiveness of the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines after only 1 dose, it's about the same.  I fully expect the 2 dose arm of J&J to match that of BioNTech and Moderna.  Which is to be expected.  Since all these vaccines do the exact same thing.  They introduce the spike protein into the bloodstream so that your body can build immunity.  Whether it's MRNA, particle or live virus the end result is the same.

As for it not being a problem as long as people don't die, I think it's still a big problem.  We have been considering this a binary event, either you live or die.  Unfortunately, that's not the case.  Many people that recovered or didn't even suffer any symptoms initially, have fallout from covid weeks or months down the road.  We have to consider the long term effects.  That has yet to be determined for people that have been vaccinated and get infected.

Another problem with only preventing serious illness is that people still get infected.  Thus the virus still has a playground and tension to mutate.  Sooner or later, there can be a mutation which will be much worse than what we have now where the vaccine may not be effective.  As long as the virus is spreading, even if people don't get hospitalized, that will be a danger.

Which is why we need to stop it outright.  We need to prevent spread and thus prevent mutation.  That's why we can't just vaccinate the developed world and let the developing world burn.  Since if covid has shown us nothing else, if anyone is sick anywhere in the world it's not going to take long for the rest of the world to get sick as well.

I'm a broken record but vaccinated or not, until this is over, wear a mask and stay home.  No variant has yet to defeat a face mask.  I wish public health wasn't setting the expectation that this will be over anytime soon.  It's going to be a while.  Some don't do that.  Some are already warning about a surge next fall.

Offline alyssa

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #166 on: February 01, 2021, 08:20:30 PM »
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As for it not being a problem as long as people don't die, I think it's still a big problem.  We have been considering this a binary event, either you live or die.  Unfortunately, that's not the case.  Many people that recovered or didn't even suffer any symptoms initially, have fallout from covid weeks or months down the road.  We have to consider the long term effects.  That has yet to be determined for people that have been vaccinated and get infected.

Another problem with only preventing serious illness is that people still get infected.  Thus the virus still has a playground and tension to mutate.  Sooner or later, there can be a mutation which will be much worse than what we have now where the vaccine may not be effective.  As long as the virus is spreading, even if people don't get hospitalized, that will be a danger.

Just to be crystal clear i did NOT say "it not being a problem as long as people don't die,"
I said "if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital."

Getting any type of virus/flu/covid is not good & can lead to mutation of the virus. It totally would be great if everyone in the world would agree to eradicate the covid, like was done with polo etc.
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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #167 on: Today at 07:46:02 AM »

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #167 on: February 01, 2021, 09:22:39 PM »
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Just to be crystal clear i did NOT say "it not being a problem as long as people don't die,"
I said "if you have gotten a vaccine, you won't be admitted to the hospital."

Getting any type of virus/flu/covid is not good & can lead to mutation of the virus. It totally would be great if everyone in the world would agree to eradicate the covid, like was done with polo etc.

Oh I didn't mean to imply that you said that.  I meant in general.  In any reporting about covid, it's always in terms of how many infected and how many dead.  We have been conditioned to think of it as being recovered or dead.  It's more nuanced than that.  Say someone is a professional athlete.  That someone may only be .1% better than someone else.  If they catch covid even without apparent symptoms, they may suffer long term effects that make them less competitive.  That maybe the difference between being able to be a professional athlete and stocking shelves.

We have been focused on living and dying that long term effects have taken a back seat.  In the years and decades to come once covid has been controlled, those long term effects will be the legacy of this pandemic.  It's not just about being athletic, it's everyday things like brain fog, nausea, sore throats and fatigue.  There are a lot of people that are considered "recovered" because they didn't die or even be hospitalized that have been suffering long term effects for weeks or months.  In that regard it's different from what the cold or flu generally do.

Most viruses tend to mutate to be less deadly.  Which makes sense.  It's bad for them if you die.  You're their home.  Mutations that kill tend to die out since well... they kill their host.  That's why ebola hasn't swept the world.  It's too deadly.  The Spanish Flu never went away.  What happened was that it quickly mutated to become less deadly.  That's what became the dominant strain of the flu.  It became the relatively benign virus we know today.  Covid is doing the opposite.  It's mutating to be more deadly.  Hopefully that will reverse and it will do as other viruses have.  It will become both more transmissible and less virulent.  Thus a less deadly form of it will become the dominant strain.  In time, if we are lucky, it will just become another cold.  Right now though, it's not heading that way.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2021, 09:33:18 PM by chocolateshake »

Offline omraged9

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #168 on: February 03, 2021, 01:32:25 AM »
Covid is mutating to become more contagious, not necessarily more deadly. It's such a unique virus in that it is spread so easily before one's death (and before the host experiences symptoms too). Most of the deadly respiratory viruses end up burning itself out by killing their hosts too fast before spreading it to enough hosts like original SARS virus.

I don't really understand why J&J made a one-dose vaccine. I understand one dose is better than two and one dose can save lives but if people get the one dose and still catch covid, it's just going to lead to more variants and the pandemic will never end. I understand we need as many people vaccinated as possible but the J&J a true vaccine if it has such a low efficacy? I wonder if a few months from now after people start getting the J&J vaccine but these people still get sick, if they'll need to get the Pfizer or Moderna shots. It doesn't appear that J&J will be able to finish their two-dose FDA trials until late this year. Maybe the Biden administration should order extra extra Moderna shots for these people.

Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #169 on: February 03, 2021, 06:07:47 PM »
Why cant we have comic-con this year?  Because of things like this.

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That's partly why the US is ranked 94th out of 98 in terms of how well the pandemic has been handled.  Or you can think of it as we are 4th best in being worst.

Offline perc2100

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #170 on: February 26, 2021, 04:40:35 PM »
I'm hearing rumblings from panelists that are being asked to record video presentations for a virtual Comic-Con.  What this means:
* CCI is planning for virtual Comic-Con; or at least they're planning for a hybrid type of SDCCI with online panels and perhaps in-person events

OR

* CCI is hedging their bets: planning for the possibility of a virtual Comic-Con while also planning for in-person Con

Lots of speculation to be made here; as a San Diego resident I think that it feels unlikely our Governor will allow an event as large as Comic-Con (he probably doesn't want something akin to Sturgess motorcycle event that became a notorious super-spreader event that ravaged several neighboring states).  It's possible that a modified convention could happen, however.  From Jan. 20th when Biden took office/took over Federal Government to Feb. 25th vaccine production has increase by around 70%; at that rate of improvement, it feels possible that we can get a majority of folks vaccinated by summer in order to have a relatively safe Comic-Con (note: calling things "safe" nowadays isn't going to be accurate for a long time; more like "mitigating risks" and minimizing risk down to incredibly small possibilities).

It's nice to know that CCI is at the least preparing for different possibilities   :-\

Offline Michael M

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #171 on: February 27, 2021, 04:10:03 AM »
This increase in vaccination makes it seem more likely that we'll see cons after summer.  For me, that sounds more like NYCC and PAX-U.  I'd love there to be SDCC this year but to the above points, it may still be too close to call.
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Offline alyssa

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #172 on: February 27, 2021, 07:47:52 AM »
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I'm hearing rumblings from panelists that are being asked to record video presentations for a virtual Comic-Con.  What this means:
* CCI is planning for virtual Comic-Con; or at least they're planning for a hybrid type of SDCCI with online panels and perhaps in-person events

OR


* CCI is hedging their bets: planning for the possibility of a virtual Comic-Con while also planning for in-person Con

<snip>

It's nice to know that CCI is at the least preparing for different possibilities   :-\

I would take any bet, any time of the day that CCI is planning for both eventualities! #notABettingPerson

As u alluded to, it's out of CCI's hands- it's up to how fast Jabs happen & the political machine can move.
if there looks to be a surplus of vaccine by june, i'm changing my vote to a 'Go'
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Offline chocolateshake

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #173 on: February 27, 2021, 10:53:22 AM »
I think it's already too late for in person comic-con this year.  Even considering the government projections, that anyone who wants a vaccine can get one starting in June/July, it's too late.  It's 4-6 weeks from the first injection before full efficacy.  Which would put it past comic-con's traditional date.

Also, it's not how much vaccine is available, it's how many get vaccinated.  Which is not looking good here in the US.  Even among healthcare workers there is vaccine resistance.  Some entities have reported 50-60% refusal rates.  If that mirrors the general population then that's not enough to bring the prevalence of covid down so low as to get back to normal.  In the end, I fear the US will do what we did in 1918.  We will simply give up.  What happens, happens.  We're already going down that road.  The standards for reopening keep loosening.

That's not to say that we won't see cons somewhere in the US.  There's that fair size convention going on right now in Florida.  Pleads to mask by the organizers were met with jeers.

Offline Miclpea

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #174 on: February 27, 2021, 01:32:17 PM »
To all the CPAs and tax attorneys, can CCI rollover the tickets to next year?


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Offline TardisMom

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #175 on: February 27, 2021, 05:36:34 PM »
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To all the CPAs and tax attorneys, can CCI rollover the tickets to next year?



The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.

Offline Miclpea

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #176 on: February 27, 2021, 05:57:03 PM »
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The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.
Thank you!


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Offline DaveG

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #177 on: February 27, 2021, 09:07:24 PM »
Still lots of hurdles to overcome.

Yes, by June everyone who wants a vaccine may be able to get one. However, what percent will refuse? Will the percent that do get it be high enough to consider it herd immunity? What about international attendees? Not every country is moving at the same pace. Best case, maybe they would be allowed to attend with proof of being vaccinated. But if CCI requires a vaccine, will there be a group that takes them to court over that requirement? Do they have systems in place to police any new policies? Will there be enforcement or just a "honor system"? How long are vaccines effective? if you were vaccinated in January, are you still safe in July? There's no way to know that for sure without tracking results. What if there are new variants? What about people who still refuse to wear masks?

There are just so many unknowns at this point that it's hard to imagine SDCC going forward this year without significant constraints. I think we're looking at a hybrid con or a virtual con. I'm trying to hold out hope. I really do think some cons will come back this year, but SDCC with its size and scope feels like a really tough one to pull off. I hope I'm wrong.

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #178 on: February 28, 2021, 07:20:32 AM »
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Still lots of hurdles to overcome.

Yes, by June everyone who wants a vaccine may be able to get one. However, what percent will refuse? Will the percent that do get it be high enough to consider it herd immunity? What about international attendees? Not every country is moving at the same pace. Best case, maybe they would be allowed to attend with proof of being vaccinated. But if CCI requires a vaccine, will there be a group that takes them to court over that requirement? Do they have systems in place to police any new policies? Will there be enforcement or just a "honor system"? How long are vaccines effective? if you were vaccinated in January, are you still safe in July? There's no way to know that for sure without tracking results. What if there are new variants? What about people who still refuse to wear masks?

There are just so many unknowns at this point that it's hard to imagine SDCC going forward this year without significant constraints. I think we're looking at a hybrid con or a virtual con. I'm trying to hold out hope. I really do think some cons will come back this year, but SDCC with its size and scope feels like a really tough one to pull off. I hope I'm wrong.
Nice to see a mention of international attendees. Thanks Dave.
Here in the UK we are currently unable to travel anywhere. It is illegal to go on holiday. If you fly into the UK you have to quarantine in a hotel for ten days at your own expense.
The government have said they hope to offer everyone over 18 their first jab by end of July. Our road to recovery was published recently and it suggests that if everything goes as hoped then travel could be back on by June. But now vaccination passports are being discussed. But mainly for Europe. US is not even being discussed at present. That is a much bigger discussion apparently.

So while there may be cross-country travel allowed by July in the US, you would need full international as well. Otherwise there is going to be a lot of pissed off international attendees and exhibitors and talent.

Offline perc2100

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Re: Poll: The Status of SDCC 2021 (In Light of the Pandemic)
« Reply #179 on: February 28, 2021, 11:44:23 AM »
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The spouse says there's no reason they'd need to refund the money, they can let it sit there as deferred revenue.  And he questions why they'd want to do refunds when they don't have funds coming in and need the money.  So yes, they could roll over the badges to 2022.
Also
1) it seems INCREDIBLY plausible/likely SDCCI will be 'back to normal' in 2022: meaning, they wouldn't have to stress mitigating attendance, and it would be 'easy' to just roll-over to next year again.  I know a handful of folks who have badges for 2021 that will definitely not go because they live with high-risk family members and still feel the situation is too dangerous now.
2) rolling over would also mean CCI sitting on the interest another year: some of the only income they're seeing right now
3) it would definitely placate the fanbase/attendees

It _feels_ like a win-win from my admittedly unknowledable position here.